Water is not just for the rich, middle class or th
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Growing Demand for Freshwater in US and China to Increase Market for Desalination Technologies and Seawater Reverse Osmosis Plants, Says IHS Report
Water scarcity no longer just a challenge for Middle East and Africa, as population growth, and agricultural and industrial demand increase competition for water
"In California, 80 percent of the population lives within 60 miles of the coast, which means California, and other coastal states, have significant opportunity to meet the water needs for their communities using desalination technology to increase fresh water supply."
Increased global scarcity of freshwater and growing demand from agriculture, municipalities and industry, are the main drivers for growth of the seawater desalination market, which is now expanding beyond traditional thirsty regions like the Middle East to include the U.S. and China, according to a new report from information and insight provider IHS (NYSE: IHS).
The IHS review, entitled Reverse Osmosis for Seawater Desalination, SRI Consulting Process Economics Program, examined the materials, processes, markets and economics for seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) technologies and concluded that, although water scarcity may be growing more quickly in other parts of the world, new markets, particularly in China and the U.S., are beginning to develop plans for large-scale SWRO plants, and that growth will accelerate to double digits after 2015. Beyond 2015, the report noted, the rate of growth in the SWRO industry is expected to continue to accelerate annually by an average of more than 15 percent in incremental capacity, when large markets such as the U.S. and China will, by then, have established working financial and political models to pursue large-scale plant projects.
“With the vast expansion of population, increasing water demand, and the deterioration of water-resource quality and quantity, water will soon become the most precious resource in the world, and municipalities, governments and industry are starting to plan for that demand,” said Ron Smith, senior consultant at IHS and author of the report. “When you consider that 99.3 percent of the water on our planet is not potable for human consumption or crop irrigation, it can be alarming. However, desalination techniques, particularly reverse-osmosis technologies, which are advancing very rapidly and have the capacity to address large-scale demand for fresh water, offer us viable means to address our increasing issues of water scarcity.”
According to Smith, approximately 97.5 percent of the water on the planet is located in the oceans. Of the remaining 2.5 percent, he said, approximately 70 percent is in the form of ice and snow, while the other 30 percent is ground water, river and lake water, and air moisture. That leaves a paltry 0.7 percent of water on the planet that is of low salinity and is suitable for use after applying conventional water treatment.
“Many populations used to rely on groundwater for water supply, but now, unfortunately, much of the world’s groundwater is polluted. That reality, along with population growth, has led the push to advance technologies that can solve these global challenges,” Smith said. In the last decade, significant and multiple improvements were made in reverse osmosis technology. In fact, when I conducted the review of these processes, I was surprised at just how extensive the advances were.”
In a separate study published in October, 2007 on water and sustainability (Water and Sustainability in the 21st Century; Crisis Management: The Global Fresh-Water Shortage
http://www.sriconsulting.com/Press_Releases/S...6584.html), Smith noted that in less than 20 years, global demand for water is expected to exceed supply by 56 percent.
According to a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report published in 2009 entitled: Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2005, U.S.G.S. Circular 1344, Americans used an estimated 410 billion gallons of water per day for all applications, including irrigation, municipal and industrial. Of that 410 billion gallons used, an estimated 349 billion gallons per day were freshwater.
Seawater desalinization provides a way of tapping into the world’s main water resource. Today, seawater is typically desalinated using two general types of water treatment technologies, including thermal evaporation (distillation) and reverse osmosis (RO) membranes. Reverse osmosis, a fairly mature technology, is a pressure-driven, membrane-based technology that needs no energy-intensive phase changes or potentially expensive solvents or adsorbents for separation. This advantage, the report added, gives RO an advantage over other traditional, chemical engineering-based separation processes, such as distillation, extraction, ion exchange and adsorption.
Currently, there are more than 15,000 desalination plants operating in 100 countries. Of those facilities, 80 percent use polymer-based membrane technologies, with nearly 90 percent of those RO-based.
“Reverse osmosis technology has advanced significantly in the past decade, and has been driven by a whole series of remarkable, incremental and engineering system advances in membrane separation and energy recovery techniques. These advances not only prompted us at IHS to take a fresh look at the technology and to offer a review, but they are also driving the associated reduction in overall water production costs, which bodes well for countries and communities (with seawater access) that are increasingly challenged to provide adequate supplies of fresh water,” Smith said.
Presently, seawater desalination is mostly used to produce fresh, potable water for human consumption and crop irrigation, said the report. Industrial applications of desalinated water are mostly limited to uses as low-salinity, power-plant boiler feed water, and process-water for oil refineries, chemical manufacturing plants, commercial fishing operations, canneries, and other food-processing industries. The limited industrial use of seawater desalination is related mainly to the high costs associated with production of high-purity or ultrapure water from seawater.
As costs go down, industrial uses of desalinated water will go up, and for industry, this will be an asset, since, as Smith writes, “industries are probably in the best position to cope with water scarcity, since they can apply technology to help themselves. They are uniquely positioned to bring this technology to bear to solve their own water problems. Industry understands technology and its application, so for manufacturers and other facilities, as long as the costs are in line, they can quickly adapt the technology to their processes.”
But access to water, not just costs, will drive industries toward SWRO, said the report, since municipalities are beginning to reserve fresh water supplies for the population, which means industry will now be required to find alternative sources such as seawater and brackish water to support manufacturing processes. This is especially true for the power, chemicals, and refining industries.
However, Smith noted, industrial consumption of water, while still significant, ranks third behind agricultural and municipalities in terms of water consumption, and these two sectors could also benefit strongly from these new advances in RO technology, particularly as populations grow and increasingly, move toward ocean-front communities.
Population growth is exacerbating the water scarcity in areas such as the Arabian Gulf region, southern Spain, North Africa, the California coast and China. In the case of California, which is facing a growing water crisis, the agricultural sector is not only the largest consumer of fresh water, but the sector has been heavily subsidized, “which has to change,” Smith said, “or the city of Los Angeles will suck the Colorado River dry. The agricultural sector needs to be a part of the water solution, because, in California, the people will get preference for water, not agriculture, when it comes to technology.”
In California, 80 percent of the population lives within 60 miles of the coast, which means California, and other coastal states, have significant opportunity to meet the water needs for their communities using desalination technology to increase fresh water supply.
“You can now produce potable water using the SWRO techniques for three cents a gallon,” Smith said, “whereas, you can expect to pay two cents a gallon for municipal water that has been through the standard water-treatment system. This is a huge breakthrough for this technology, and makes it economically more viable as an alternative source for fresh water. Ten years ago, the costs to produce desalinized water were double what they are today.”
Currently in the U.S., 20 desalination plants — ranging from less than a million gallons per day production to 100 million gallons of water per day — are planned in Massachusetts, Texas, Florida, California and Georgia. Mid-sized plants are designed to produce 15 million gallons of water per day, whereas, large-scale plants produce greater than 25 million gallons of water per day.
According to the Chinese government, desalinated seawater is expected to contribute 16 percent to 24 percent of water supply in Chinese coastal areas in the near future, with total daily capacity expected to reach 660 million gallons to 795 gallons by 2020. Currently China operates just 20 SWRO plants, and 11 of those are small-scale plants, but has another 20 large-scale plants planned by 2030.
For more information on the Reverse Osmosis for Seawater Desalination, SRI Consulting Process Economics Program review, please contact sales@ihs.com. To speak with IHS Analyst Ron Smith, regarding the review, please contact melissa.manning@ihs.com, or press@ihs.com.