Very tall order!!! Again timeline is tough to gau
Post# of 41413
(Total Views: 225)
Posted On: 04/05/2017 2:58:53 PM
Re: The Lieutenant #32296
Very tall order!!! Again timeline is tough to gauge - what happens when. Plus I cannot account for emotion and supply/demand impacts. Also market cap is shares times price. It is not the value of the company.
To get you what you want, I would need much more info for 1, 2 and 5 years out. How many employees? How many planes? What other expected costs? How many routes? What about cargo? So many areas...
For instance I could easily place a premium on the cargo business based on value of negotiated deal with a company oike UPS and factor in length of time of that deal. But I do not ave any Info to base this.
What about subsidiaries? Will they have any? Marketing campaign, frequent flyer number?
If you told me that in 2 years - they had 10 full running routes and were making 100mm annually? Well at 10B shares and a 35 pe. You are looking at .35/share. Giving u a 3.5 billion MCap. Plus potential intrinsic value of another .10/ share
BUT ... if you split 25/1. That 100mm profit translates to 8.75 per share. Nearly the same market cap. Plus intrinsic. But you are now faced with the potential that transportation ETFs and indices are using this stock and the alpha funds that mirror those indices will need to buy the shares. At that point if you now have one of the top 2000 market caps for growth companies in the US you could be added to the russel indexes - then that opens you up to crazy purchasing. And remember - Russell is based on market cap. And my thoughts on free floating shares also applies. But at that point a large purchase will consist of 5-10k shares not millions...
To get you what you want, I would need much more info for 1, 2 and 5 years out. How many employees? How many planes? What other expected costs? How many routes? What about cargo? So many areas...
For instance I could easily place a premium on the cargo business based on value of negotiated deal with a company oike UPS and factor in length of time of that deal. But I do not ave any Info to base this.
What about subsidiaries? Will they have any? Marketing campaign, frequent flyer number?
If you told me that in 2 years - they had 10 full running routes and were making 100mm annually? Well at 10B shares and a 35 pe. You are looking at .35/share. Giving u a 3.5 billion MCap. Plus potential intrinsic value of another .10/ share
BUT ... if you split 25/1. That 100mm profit translates to 8.75 per share. Nearly the same market cap. Plus intrinsic. But you are now faced with the potential that transportation ETFs and indices are using this stock and the alpha funds that mirror those indices will need to buy the shares. At that point if you now have one of the top 2000 market caps for growth companies in the US you could be added to the russel indexes - then that opens you up to crazy purchasing. And remember - Russell is based on market cap. And my thoughts on free floating shares also applies. But at that point a large purchase will consist of 5-10k shares not millions...
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