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Two groups, traders and long-term longs. I you

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Post# of 72447
Posted On: 12/29/2012 1:47:48 PM
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Posted By: TOB


Two groups, traders and long-term longs.


I you're a trader then certainly you could have taken profit at a sensible target.  This on each of the last 4 rally waves. My target of $2.30 for this last wave wasn't far from the actual top. Or whatever target or plan you use. But don't complain if a PR or continuation takes the SP much higher and you missed a bigger move. You can't have it both ways.


Also don't expect high accuracy. I had two good calls in a row on the last two waves, two high targets hit.  But that was just because the market played nice. I don't expect to hit targets all the time as though having targets is fortune telling. It's just a way of formulating a plan of action based upon what might happen, not pretending one knows what will happen. There is always a proven wrong to these sorts of projections and you only need about 30% accuracy to make money. Where traders get killed is when they expect a higher accuracy rate than possible, and thus their plan requires something impossible to make profit. It becomes a plan to fail, not succeed.


If you're a long-term long, then don't sweat and complain over share price fluctuations as they only affect you psychologically. If you have no intention of trading and your target is much higher, why should you torment yourself over the price action prior to your target? Of course the share price will go up, down, and sideways before ever hitting your target, if you are lucky enough to have your target hit.


Those who have no real plan, but then say "Oh, I missed this or that opportunity" are just causing themselves unnecessary stress. Why care if it wasn't your plan and you had no intention of acting at that point? Also it is very unusual to sell at the actual peak and buy at the actual bottom. This is luck, and a fool's game to try to repeat. Also only fools and liars claim to do this reliably. They never post their losses.

Those who don't intend to trade, my suggestion is don' be upset by the traders. They have different plans and objectives. Know that 90% to 95% of them lose money and in fact bust out over time. (Research supports this) Most only post their wins, not their losses, so they're not even honest. Yes it is not pleasant that most of them post in an effort to manipulate the share price and deceive others to help their fills. But then this is just human nature, go to a political blog and you will see people trying to influence others politics so their side wins. Lot's of games and deception everywhere.


Traders in an uptrend are actually very healthy. They buy dips after they book profits, chase the rising share price, and provide liquidity, this includes shorts. They also help cap bubbles so new longs are get in at a better price. Regardless, the market is free to everyone so there is no choosing who participates.


One thing the recent CTIX price action did prove, is that buying volume leads to huge rallies. This theory got confirmation which I found very encouraging,  and I believe foreshadows what will happen on good news. Until the parabolic rally I was only guessing at this. So let's hope we're lucky enough to have good news as we seem perfectly situated to a much higher share price.


Then we can get together and weep, and moan, and fret, and blame each other when the CTIX share price drops another dollar. That time from $10 to $9 . We should have such problems!


Happy Holidays, one and all.





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