Well, here's the thing. I made no prediction or pr
Post# of 597
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Posted On: 03/20/2017 11:33:07 AM
Well, here's the thing. I made no prediction or projection at all - at least not an immediate within-a-week-or-month short-term "prediction" as you've framed it, where the price should be there right now "if I was right.". What I put out there is the "value". The value is there. It takes time for the market - that's a behavioral thing, a large part of it anyway. Behavioral science. That's where chart patterns come in. All of this is my opinion, of course, but it is based on real, mostly factual, science (as factual as "behavior" can be).
As far as investing goes, I look at the fundamentals. "Trading" and playing stocks is a bit different. That's where TA comes in. I "invest" in these good stocks, and I use TA to bolster my confidence in where the stock is going when I see pullbacks and consolidation. With this, I'm not quick at all to panic or do anything stupid with the investment.
So look at my post about the cup and handle. It's a very real thing. The cup and handle pattern is a continuation pattern. There's a reason it exists, and it's mostly behavioral. Sure, there's simple economics - call it microeconomics - involving short-term players taking short-term profits. But there's also some group-think mentality that turns to a self-fulfilling, predictable "resistance" at certain prices on a chart. Look at the Elliott Wave - a pretty real thing, almost purely a combination of microeconomics and group behavior (as it relates to the idea of "self-fulfilling prophecies"
. And the day-trading 10, 20, 30 sma's - again a group-think, self-fulfilling "rule of thumb" effect when it comes to penny stocks.
So for a price correction or recovery, it just takes time. But as you've noted, there will be pullbacks and consolidation along the way. The pattern formed by the cup and handle is a perfect example. The pattern forms when an undervalued stock makes a corrective move upward to a level of resistance - typically precipitated at a price that can be seen by chart TA - where profit-taking consolidation ensues. New and renewed buying interest reverses the downward trend to form the cup. The next, shorter pullback and consolidation occurs - forming the handle - when the technical resistance is touched once again, forming the right-hand lip of the cup. And the behavior continues to play out the breakout and continuation of the price correction from the cup and handle. Based on my valuation - not the price prediction - PGUS has a long way to go before it's no longer "significantly undervalued." I feel the value has grown significantly, so I'm not so sure I'd limit it to the 0.16 that you quoted from my earlier analysis. But even THAT is significantly higher than the 0.10+ range that I mentioned, for which I believe it's fair to say that PGUS could very possibly increase 100% to 200% by the end of the year (that is, to 0.20 or 0.30 by end of year). Just so you know, that's just a "fair" statement, in my mind. But there is absolutely the potential that we could see much higher - based on facts: comparables for land like ours with a master plan, and forward PE ratios for produce farming.
BTW, I know that fast money plays like MJ stocks, pharma, certain techs, etc... they break these behavior some of the "rules" that I mentioned above, frequently (though the Elliott Wave seems prominent just about everywhere_ - but they're also a helluva lot riskier. Tough to put much into a position with them because of that... at least unless/until you're "riding on free shares."
Okay, I want to get that post out over there on the oceanfront valuation, so on to that and then gotta get back to real work (or some mix of the two). Hopefully this clarifies the difference between my value estimate and an ultra-short term price prediction/projection. Just saw your posts over there. Nice grab! Yeah, more exposure will certainly help, and I'm sure we'll get that, more and more.
As far as investing goes, I look at the fundamentals. "Trading" and playing stocks is a bit different. That's where TA comes in. I "invest" in these good stocks, and I use TA to bolster my confidence in where the stock is going when I see pullbacks and consolidation. With this, I'm not quick at all to panic or do anything stupid with the investment.
So look at my post about the cup and handle. It's a very real thing. The cup and handle pattern is a continuation pattern. There's a reason it exists, and it's mostly behavioral. Sure, there's simple economics - call it microeconomics - involving short-term players taking short-term profits. But there's also some group-think mentality that turns to a self-fulfilling, predictable "resistance" at certain prices on a chart. Look at the Elliott Wave - a pretty real thing, almost purely a combination of microeconomics and group behavior (as it relates to the idea of "self-fulfilling prophecies"
. And the day-trading 10, 20, 30 sma's - again a group-think, self-fulfilling "rule of thumb" effect when it comes to penny stocks. So for a price correction or recovery, it just takes time. But as you've noted, there will be pullbacks and consolidation along the way. The pattern formed by the cup and handle is a perfect example. The pattern forms when an undervalued stock makes a corrective move upward to a level of resistance - typically precipitated at a price that can be seen by chart TA - where profit-taking consolidation ensues. New and renewed buying interest reverses the downward trend to form the cup. The next, shorter pullback and consolidation occurs - forming the handle - when the technical resistance is touched once again, forming the right-hand lip of the cup. And the behavior continues to play out the breakout and continuation of the price correction from the cup and handle. Based on my valuation - not the price prediction - PGUS has a long way to go before it's no longer "significantly undervalued." I feel the value has grown significantly, so I'm not so sure I'd limit it to the 0.16 that you quoted from my earlier analysis. But even THAT is significantly higher than the 0.10+ range that I mentioned, for which I believe it's fair to say that PGUS could very possibly increase 100% to 200% by the end of the year (that is, to 0.20 or 0.30 by end of year). Just so you know, that's just a "fair" statement, in my mind. But there is absolutely the potential that we could see much higher - based on facts: comparables for land like ours with a master plan, and forward PE ratios for produce farming.
BTW, I know that fast money plays like MJ stocks, pharma, certain techs, etc... they break these behavior some of the "rules" that I mentioned above, frequently (though the Elliott Wave seems prominent just about everywhere_ - but they're also a helluva lot riskier. Tough to put much into a position with them because of that... at least unless/until you're "riding on free shares."
Okay, I want to get that post out over there on the oceanfront valuation, so on to that and then gotta get back to real work (or some mix of the two). Hopefully this clarifies the difference between my value estimate and an ultra-short term price prediction/projection. Just saw your posts over there. Nice grab! Yeah, more exposure will certainly help, and I'm sure we'll get that, more and more.
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