ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 /

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As the World Travel Monitor results for the first eight months of 2016 made clear, worldwide outbound travel remains on the growth path despite terror attacks and political unrest. The number of worldwide outbound trips grew by 3.9%, led by Asia (+11%), including 18% growth in the rapidly developing Chinese market, and the USA (+7%). European outbound travel grew by 2.5%, with good growth from the UK (+6%) and Germany (+4%).

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Worldwide inbound tourism increased by 4% in the first nine months of 2016, according to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.

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The outlook for 2017 is very positive, with world outbound travel predicted to grow by between 4% and 5%, driven once again by Asia and the USA and with stronger growth out of Europe. The Chinese are expected to go on more international trips for many years to come, although there could be a noticeable drop in their sometimes extravagant spending in future, according to one Beijing-based expert.

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‘Millennials’ are a large market segment who apparently have special characteristics such as the desire for authentic cultural experiences and who use technology intensively. Yet, according to World Travel Monitor data, they actually display quite similar travel patterns as older travellers. Technology giant Google explained how it is rolling out a whole portfolio of travel products and services to “help travellers to dream, plan, book and experience”.

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There should be good growth in Asia, moderate growth in the USA
and Europe, while emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia should see an economic stabilisation, according to the ifo experts.

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The number of worldwide outbound trips grew by 3.9% in the first eight months of this year, according to World Travel Monitor® figures presented at the Pisa forum. “This was a robust performance considering everything that has happened over the past 12 months,” commented IPK International founder and president Rolf Freitag.

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Asia was once again the world’s growth driver with a dynamic 11% increase in outbound trips, with very strong performances by China (+18%) and the Republic of Korea (+11%). North America grew well with a 6% rise in international trips, driven by the strong US market (+7%), but South America, where Brazilian outbound travel plummeted by 15%, showed only a 1% increase. European outbound travel increased by a solid 2.5%, with good growth from the UK (+6%) and Germany (+4%) as well as smaller markets outweighing a double-digit decline in international trips by Russians.

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IPK International predicts that the world outbound travel market turnover for the full year 2016 will top the $2 trillion mark for the first time, which would be an increase of around 7 to 8% compared to 2015.

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City trips remained a growth sector with a 10% increase between January and August 2016, with a strong 15% rise by Europeans, according to World Travel Monitor® figures. There was a healthy 6% increase in sun & beach holidays, driven by Asians and Americans, but a slight 2% fall in touring holidays.

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Destinations around the world welcomed 956 million international visitors between January and September 2016, according to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer released in early November. This was a 4% increase, which is close to the tourism industry’s long-term growth rate. “Tourism has been growing at or about 4% for the last six years,” Michel Julian, Technical Coordinator of the Tourism Market Trends Programme, told the Pisa Forum. Following a 5% increase in international tourism to 1,186 million arrivals in 2015, this growth rate for the first nine months of 2016 is within the 3.5 – 4.5% range for 2016 that the organisation predicted at the start of this year.

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At a regional level, there was strong growth in international tourism for Asia Pacific, good increases for the Americas and overall low growth for Europe. Africa generated an overall 8% increase thanks to a strong comeback for sub-Saharan destinations. Available data for the Middle East points to a 6% decrease in arrivals, though results vary from destination to destination.

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The consultancy forecasts an increase in worldwide outbound trips of between 4 and 5%. IPK International sees particularly strong growth for outbound trips from Asia, with a likely rise of 6%, along with increases of about 5% for outbound trips from North, Central and South America and of 4% from Europe.

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Outbound travel by Europeans grew by 2.5% in the first eight months of 2016, according to World Travel Monitor® figures. Among major source markets, the top performers in terms of outbound growth were Poland and Ireland (both +7%), the UK, Netherlands, Spain and Denmark (all +6%) while the German market grew by 4%.

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Europeans went on slightly longer international trips this year but held back with their spending, according to World Travel Monitor® figures. In terms of length of stay, there was a 2% increase in shorter outbound trips (1-7 nights), which make up around two thirds of all trips, a 1% rise in medium-length trips (8-15 nights) and a 5% increase in long trips (16+ nights). The overall average spend per trip was stable at 910 euros.

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The number of international holidays taken by Europeans increased by a moderate 2% but there was a high 10% increase in the number of visits to family and friends (VFR) and other leisure trips abroad. “This suggests that a significant number of people preferred the safety of private homes to commercial accommodation this year,” commented Paco Buerbaum, CEO of IPK International.

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Moreover, changes occurred in the types of holidays taken by Europeans between January and August 2016, according to World Travel Monitor® figures. The number of sun & beach holidays stagnated, touring holidays fell by 5% but city trips went up by 15%. Buerbaum commented: “The flat growth for beach holidays reflects the concerns of many tourists about visiting some destinations that have experienced terror attacks. Some countries are growing well, and others are really struggling. However, the strong growth for city trips shows that Europeans are not being scared away from visiting cities.”

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The decision by many Europeans this year to switch their holiday destinations was reflected by various destination trend figures presented at the Pisa forum. In general, Europeans stayed closer to home, resulting in a 3% rise in trips to destinations within Europe. Trips to Asia grew only 2% and there was a 1% drop to the Americas.