Quote:Your basic assumption is that the company needs to raise $15 million, that figure also making an unfounded assumption that they want to keep 2 million in the bank (that assumption based on what? The company has never stated any such thing.) It doesn't take 2 million bucks to "keep the lights on" and pay the rent.
The 10K stated an anticipated need of $19M. Of that $19M, $15M would be used for clinical trials. Therefore, they anticipate $4M is required for the rest of operations for the year. Therefore $2M would cover 2H 2017 which I consider to be the deal signing period. Strip the $2M if you don't think it's needed and it drops the average daily Aspire sales to 45K in my calculations. Doesn't change much.
Quote:Despite your assumption, we do not know what their fundraising plans are. Are they negotiating with a partner? Are they, perhaps, talking to a business development company (like, for instance, Hercules or Horizon)? Are they negotiating a settlement with the Rosen firm which would bring cash into the coffers (or, alternatively, will the judge award them some damages)? Are they negotiating a loan (Leo Ehrlich has done this in the past)? Are they negotiating a private placement?
The answer to these questions is: we do not know.
Fair enough. Any of those are possibilities. I was using the simplest answer using only what was presented in the 10K and what the company has done the past three years. There was no mention of any of those options for fund raising in the 10K so I consider them less likely.
Quote:Therefore, assuming that they are going to be selling shares to Aspire is not an assumption that we can make.
And even if they were indeed to sell shares to Aspire, how do you know that Aspire is selling and not holding such stock?
The answer to that question is: we do not know.
The company anticipated needing $10M+ more than they had on hand so fund raising is a probable event. As stated above, Aspire/Shelf are the vehicles for that mentioned in the 10K. What does Aspire do with the shares? They don't report a 5% stake so they have to sell some of them.
Quote:Writing a post about "headwinds" in the stock, based on the sheerest speculation but assuming that it is true, is specious.
It is speculation, as is everything we discuss on a message board (you'll note my signature). It is, however, speculation based upon company provided information. It is not speculation based on possible future events such as settlements, loans and development corporations that you conjure up to avoid the possibility of the established fund raising methods.
Would you actually feel better if we found that they weren't selling shares to Aspire? At least if they are we are securing funds and have a good reason for lack of stock performance. Would you rather the stock be performing poorly in the absence of any sales? The 10K next year will give us the answer and I suspect the Aspire sales pattern will match the past three years barring a deal in 1H 2017.
Or it could be naked shorts which was what my original post was asking about before it got derailed.
Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX) Stock Research Links
All content of my posts is my opinion and speculation. Do not treat anything I say as fact or actionable investment advice. I participate to challenge my investment thesis from any angle possible. Please do your own due diligence.
Current Positions:
Long CTIX.
Current Positions:
Long CTIX.
