Our Final 2016 Picks Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50

New Post Public Reply Private Reply Replies (0) Message Board

Nov 7, 2016 at 4:44 PM

Quote:

Our Final 2016 Picks
Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, UVA Center for Politics November 7th, 2016

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

After a nearly two-year campaign — kicked off in December 2014 by Jeb Bush (remember him?) — we’ve come to it at last. Election Day is less than 24 hours away.

And we know why you’re here: You just want the picks.

So let’s cut to the chase. Table 1 shows our final selections for the Electoral College, Senate, House, and the governorships.

Despite some wobbles along the way, we’ve favored Hillary Clinton as the 45th president of the United States ever since we did our first handicapping of the Clinton vs. Donald Trump matchup back in late March.

The edge we had for her back then has eroded a little bit at the end — we had her as high as 352 electoral votes, and in the final tally we have her down to 322, with 216 for Trump. If this is how it turns out, Trump will fare 10 electoral votes better than Mitt Romney, and Clinton will do 10 electoral votes worse than Barack Obama in 2012 — 11 or 12 if rogue Washington electors follow through on their threat to refuse to vote for Clinton (but we can’t assume that at this time).

The two closest states here are North Carolina and Ohio. For a long time, it appeared that Florida was a shakier state for Clinton than the Tar Heel State, but our sources indicate that the Sunshine State looks somewhat brighter for her now, although both should be tight.

Meanwhile, Ohio may be a real Toss-up state. Buckeye history and demography point to Trump, but Clinton’s ground operation could come through for her in the end. If Ohio does vote for Trump while he is losing the White House, it will be just the third time in 31 elections that Ohio will have voted for the loser.

We’re picking that to happen, but if Clinton gets any benefit out of James Comey’s final (?) intervention into campaign 2016, it may be that it generates a tiny bounce that allows her to leapfrog Trump in the Buckeye State.

Arizona and Iowa seem like heavier lifts for Clinton but her campaign still holds out hope in both. Ultimately, we think North Carolina and Ohio are the hardest calls in the Electoral College, so we think it makes the most sense to just split them.

The buzz in the final days has been about a late Trump play in Michigan. He will likely eat into traditional Democratic margins there, but remember that Barack Obama won the state by nearly 10 points in 2012 (450,000 votes).

Trump’s climb there is steep, but out of an abundance of caution we’re moving the state from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. We’re doing the same thing in New Hampshire, where some polls were close last week (although many operatives do not believe the state is tied), and Pennsylvania, two states (like Michigan) that have very little early voting.

Clinton is focusing on these states at the end, too, and with good reason. If Trump pulls an upset, it’ll probably be because he narrowly fought off Clinton in Florida and North Carolina and managed to spring a shocker or two in the Rust Belt.

Florida may tell us a lot about whether we’re going to have a long night or a short one. About two-thirds of voters will likely have cast their ballots early, so the vote count should not take that long.

If Clinton wins the state by two or three points and is declared the victor early on, it’ll be hard to find a plausible path to Trump victory.

If Trump captures the state, though, then we’ll have to see if her firewall states, like the aforementioned states of Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, as well as Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, come through for her.

In the prognostication business, what you predict at the end — when the drift of the year is usually fairly clear — is less significant than what you predict months before, at a time when the future is foggy. Starting in March, we have released a total of 17 Electoral College maps in the Clinton-Trump race. Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes.

Newer

Older

Scroll down for more posts ▼

Top 10 Most Recent News Articles

ELEGOO Slashes Prices up to 54% for 2026 Holiday Deals

ELEGOO's 2026 Holiday Strategy: Deep Discounts Welcome to the world of sharp deals and crafty creations as ELEGOO kicks off its Black Friday and Cyber Monday extravaganza. This time, they're slashing prices by up to 54% on their impressive lineup of 3D printers and captivating accessories. Yeah, it's that time of year when wallets might take a hit, but for a good reason....

Fresenius, WuXi Biologics Blaze New Biosimilars Trail

Fresenius Bets Big on Biopharma with WuXi Partnership A deal inked by Fresenius and WuXi Biologics is stirring up the biosimilars pot, aiming to widen Fresenius' grip on the market tenfold. We're not talking small potatoes here; we're talking up to 66 biosimilar molecules against a hefty backdrop of more than €370 billion in originator sales. It's as if they've said,...

Sirolimus-Coated Balloon Shows Promise in TRANSFORM II

Breaking Down the TRANSFORM II Trial Innovation never rests, folks, especially when it comes to treating coronary artery disease. Right on cue, the TRANSFORM II trial's results have hit the airwaves, marking a significant milestone with its implant-free MagicTouch Sirolimus-Coated Balloon (SCB) strategy. Getting the Lay of the Land This wasn't just some backyard...

Tactical Comm Market: $19.39B by 2031 Amid 8.1% CAGR

Riding the Tactical Communication Wave Alright, here’s something to chew on over your morning coffee. The tactical communication market is projected to balloon from USD 13.14 billion in 2026 to a whopping USD 19.39 billion by 2031. That’s an 8.1% CAGR if you’re keeping track—no small peanuts. So what's driving this surge? It’s all about security, modernization,...

SICO Snags $1.6B in New Investor Mandates for 2026

SICO Makes Waves with Massive New Business Wins Right out of the gate at the Gateway Gulf 2026 Forum, SICO's announcement of a whopping $1.6 billion in new business mandates had even the seasoned pros raising an eyebrow or two. There's nothing like a sweet billion-dollar figure to kickstart the day, huh? This isn't small change we're talking about; this is a tidal wave of...

HashKey and RD Tech Partner for RDUSD Expansion

A Partnership with Serious Implications Here's a fresh duo in the financial frontier—HashKey On-Chain and RD Technologies are teaming up in a bid to push the RDUSD stablecoin into the heart of cross-border trade and finance. And why does it matter? Well, in the wild west of digital finance, stablecoins are the solid ground, and these two are planting their flag. It's a...

2026 Rawlings Gold Glove Award Winners Announced

Fielding Excellence on Display: The 2026 Rawlings Gold Glove Awards The Rawlings Gold Glove Awards have once again shone the spotlight on baseball's defensive maestros. Announced by Rawlings Sporting Goods Company, Inc., on November 1, 2026, this year's winners include 11 seasoned veterans and nine greenhorns who claimed their first-ever Gold Gloves. Unveiled during a...

Skanska's Bold CZK 2.2B Prague Venture: What's Brewing?

Skanska Rolls the Dice with CZK 2.2 Billion We got Skanska pushing forward with a beefy CZK 2.2 billion investment, translating to about SEK 1 billion, into a new residential phase right in the heart of Prague. It's part of the grand Emil Kolben District project, tasked with blending modern living with low-energy savvy in a city that's slowly shrugging off its industrial...

Silicone Fluids Market Forecast Hits $10.15B by 2031

Unpacking the Prevailing Expansion The global silicone fluids market is marching on a path to significant growth, projected to hit a hefty $10.15 billion by 2031. Now, if you think that's just another number, let's break down why this matters and how the market is changing its stripes. The Rising Tide of Silicone Applications Silicone fluids are not just sliding under the...

MetaOptics Expands U.S. Reach with ADR Programme

A Bold Move into the U.S. Market MetaOptics Ltd, the semiconductor optics dynamo out of Singapore, is kicking up some investment dust with their American Depositary Receipts (ADR) Programme aimed squarely at expanding its U.S. footprint. And let me tell you, in the game of international market expansion, that's no rookie maneuver. Why ADR? Why Now? So, why is MetaOptics...