White House Watch: Still Anyone’s

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Oct 27, 2016 at 5:24 PM

White House Watch: Still Anyone’s Race

Thursday, October 27, 2016
Both major party candidates are creeping up in the closing weeks of the presidential campaign, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch.

The new national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters still finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a one-point lead over Republican Donald Trump – 45% to 44%. Libertarian Gary Johnson remains at a low of four percent (4%), and Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns just one percent (1%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Yesterday, it was Clinton 44%, Trump 43%. Clinton started the week down by two points to Trump but edged ahead on Tuesday. Given the survey’s +/- 2.5% margin of error, however, the race remains anyone’s call.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) say they are certain already of how they will vote. Among these voters, it’s tied – Clinton 48%, Trump 48%, with Johnson at four percent (4%). Among those who still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 43%, Trump 34%, Johnson 14% and Stein 10%.

Generally speaking, support for third-party candidates fades as Election Day nears and their voters opt for one of the two major party nominees. However, many expected third-party candidates to do better this year because of the unpopularity of Clinton and Trump. But Johnson peaked at nine percent (9%) support in September. Stein has never earned more than three percent (3%) of the vote.

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-26, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]

Trump is still slightly ahead in reliably Republican Utah despite a spirited challenge from Republican-turned-Independent Evan McMullin. Congressman Jason Chaffetz who withdrew his support from Trump after the release of a video showing the nominee making crude sexual comments now says he will vote for Trump anyway.

Nationally, both Clinton and Trump earn 81% support from the voters in their respective parties and 12% of the vote from those in each other’s party. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer Trump 42% to 35% and give Johnson 10%. He and Stein get low single-digit support elsewhere.

The dueling gender gaps remain unchanged. Clinton leads by 10 points among women; Trump is ahead by nine among men.

The Democrats has a sizable lead among those under 40, while their elders continue to favor her GOP rival.

Trump is still well ahead among whites but trails by dramatic margins among black and other minority voters.

Unaffiliateds, younger voters and other minorities, however, are less certain of their vote than the others.

Voters think Clinton has more to hide than Trump does.

Trump is calling for term limits on members of Congress even though his party currently controls both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Voters agree more strongly than ever with the need for term limits.

Clinton now leads Trump in the key state of Nevada.

Skyrocketing premiums for those who purchased their health insurance through Obamacare exchanges has Clinton on the defensive. She’s promised increased federal subsidies, but voters oppose taxpayer help to offset these rate increases.

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