A Reality Check on Trump's Poll Numbers by Chu

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A Reality Check on Trump's Poll Numbers

by Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann

First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.

Reality check on Trump's poll numbers: They've been incredibly consistent

Campaigning in Florida yesterday, Donald Trump declared that the poll numbers showing him trailing to Hillary Clinton are "rigged" against him. "The system is corrupt and it's rigged and it's broken, and we're going to change it," he said in St. Augustine, FL.

But here's a reality check on Trump's poll numbers: They've been consistent over the past year. In addition to trailing Clinton by double digits or close to it in the national NBC/WSJ poll since Sept. 2015 (with the exceptions of May, June, and July of this year), Trump's unfavorable numbers among key demographic groups have barely moved since Jan. 2016 in the NBC/WSJ poll:

•Women: THEN: 68%, NOW: 62%


•Latinos: THEN: 69%, NOW: 80%


•African Americans: THEN: 81%, NOW: 87%


•Those ages 18-34: THEN: 72%, NOW: 70%


•Independents: THEN: 52%, NOW: 61%


•Suburban voters: THEN: 55%, NOW: 59%


Folks, it is hard to win a presidential race -- let alone lead in national polls -- when six in 10 women, seven in 10 young voters, eight in 10 Latinos, and nearly nine in 10 African Americans have an unfavorable view of you, even against another unpopular opponent.

As The Atlantic's Ron Brownstein wrote back in January, before the Iowa and New Hampshire contests took place, "Republicans are growing comfortable with the prospect of Trump winning the party nomination, even as resistance to him is solidifying among the voters he would need to win the general election." If the polls are rigged against Trump, they've been rigged for a year.

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