Election Update: Post-Debate Polls Show Trump Still In Big

New Post Public Reply Private Reply Replies (1) Message Board

Oct 12, 2016 at 4:58 PM

Quote:

Election Update: Post-Debate Polls Show Trump Still In Big Trouble

By NATE SILVER

Quote:

Clinton also regained the lead in the Republican-leaning USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll for the first time since Sept. 11 , although we’d recommend reading this analysis of the poll from The Upshot’s Nate Cohn before you spend too much time focusing on its fluctuations.

Quote:

How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-...rages.html

We’re spending a lot of time these days diagnosing whether Donald Trump’s position in the polls is merely bad or still getting worse. Most of the evidence on Wednesday — which included the first dusting of state polls since the second presidential debate, on Sunday night — fell into the “still getting worse” bucket.

Trump’s chances are down to 14 percent in our polls-only forecast (against an 86 percent chance for Hillary Clinton) and to 17 percent, a record low for Trump, in our polls-plus forecast.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-...g-trouble/

We’ll start with the three state polls that were conducted entirely after Sunday night’s debate:

• First, a Baldwin Wallace University poll showed Trump trailing Clinton by 9 percentage points in Ohio. That’s obviously an awful result for Trump — his worst poll of Ohio all year — although hard to put into context because Baldwin Wallace University hasn’t done a lot of election polling before. Their previous poll of Ohio, in February, showed Trump up by 2 points.

• Another unsightly number for Trump came from a Y2 Analytics poll of Utah, which you may remember as the state that Mitt Romney won by 48 points. It showed Trump tied with Clinton at just 26 percent of the vote, with the independent candidate Evan McMullin at 22 percent and the Libertarian Gary Johnson at 14 percent.

We’re going to be adding McMullin to our model in Utah — give us a day or two on that. But in the meantime, we could also really use another poll or two of Utah to confirm or contradict this result.

Although polling there in the spring sometimes showed a tight race, Trump pulled ahead by margins ranging from 7 to 15 points in a series of Utah polls in August and September. If McMullin is really polling in the 20s, however — and taking most of his voters from Trump — he could create an unpredictable finish.

• Finally, an Opinion Savvy poll of Florida put Clinton up by 3 percentage points. This is the least-worst of the post-debate polls for Trump, but still not good — it shows a slight uptick for Clinton from a late September poll, when Opinion Savvy had her ahead by less than a percentage point.

That’s it for the fully post-debate polls. But there was also a Monmouth University poll of Missouri, conducted mostly after the debate, that showed Trump up 5 percentage points there.

That’s probably Trump’s best result of the day, given that Monmouth’s previous poll of Missouri, from August, had Trump up just 1 point. To keep things in perspective, however, Mitt Romney won Missouri by 9 points.

Finally, a Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin, conducted entirely before the debate, showed Clinton up 7 points — improved from a 3-point lead in Marquette’s mid-September poll.

That’s about what we’d have expected to see from a Wisconsin poll, as our forecast has Clinton ahead there by about 8 points. In another scary bit of data for Trump, however, he did significantly worse in the portions of the poll that were conducted on Saturday and Sunday after the release of a 2005 video that showed him condoning unwanted sexual contact toward women.

There are also the national tracking polls, which variously show Trump to be rebounding slightly or Clinton to be continuing to extend her lead.

Clinton also regained the lead in the Republican-leaning USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll for the first time since Sept. 11, although we’d recommend reading this analysis of the poll from The Upshot’s Nate Cohn before you spend too much time focusing on its fluctuations.

Trump now trails Clinton by 6.5 percentage points in our popular vote forecast — by comparison, he was 4.6 points back of Clinton a week ago, on Oct. 5, before the videotape or the second debate.

So he’s moving in the wrong direction as time is running out. While a Trump comeback is still mathematically feasible — Trump’s 17 percent chance in the polls-plus model, as we’ve pointed out before, is the same as your chances of losing a “game” of Russian roulette — it wouldn’t really have any good precedent in recent American presidential elections.

Newer

Older

Scroll down for more posts ▼

Top 10 Most Recent News Articles

Symplr's Strategic Refinancing: A Shot in the Arm

Symplr's Financial Revamp: What It Means You're not often floored by a refinancing move, but symplr's announcement on October 23 sure seems like a savvy maneuver. For a company that's already a lynchpin in healthcare operations, extending debt maturities and juicing up liquidity is like an adrenaline shot to the ticker. And for me, it's the confidence from heavyweights...

VoxNexus Debuts On-Device AI: A Game-Changer for Languages

VoxNexus Changes the Game with VoxEdge Here's the rub with tech: it often feels like it's only for the folks who already have a leg up. VoxNexus just flipped the script with its new product, VoxEdge, an on-device voice stack that's making waves by breaking language barriers in the ever-evolving AI world. This move might just shift the landscape of voice artificial...

Patriot Fund Gala Celebrates Veterans and America's 250th

Celebrating Service and Patriotism in Philadelphia The Patriot Fund is gearing up for its 11th Annual Gala, a night dedicated to honoring the veterans who have sacrificed so much for this nation. Set against the historic backdrop of Philadelphia, the gala coincides with America's 250th anniversary—couldn't have picked a better time or place for such an event. It’s not...

Investor Yazan Al Homsi Backs Arcanus Aerial for $500K

Yazan Al Homsi Backs Canadian Innovation Every once in a while, you see a move in the market that feels bigger than the numbers on the page. That's what this $500,000 from Yazan Al Homsi into Arcanus Aerial Systems does. Al Homsi, a UAE-based investor with a solid pedigree, decided to pump half a million bucks into Arcanus just as it's setting down roots in Canadian soil...

Americas Cardroom Smashes Prize Pools; Bahamas Up Next

Ah, poker. Where dreams are won with a flick of the wrist and a well-placed bluff. This week, it was all eyes on Americas Cardroom’s Dual Venom PKOs, and let me tell you, they didn't just meet expectations—they chewed them up and spat them out like yesterday's jam. Two Titans Crowned in Poker Showdown The action wrapped up with a jaw-dropping $6,862,500 prize pool....

Mendocino Farms Faces Allegations Over Employee Practices

Mendocino Farms Lands in Legal Hot Water Jobs pay the bills and keep the gears turning. But when a company like Mendocino Farms allegedly chucks out the rulebook, things get messy fast. We're talking about a hefty lawsuit aimed at this chain, accusing them of playing fast and loose with California's labor laws. If you've been around the block like me, you know that...

SLM Faces Legal Scrutiny as Losses Mount Amid Pause

SLM's Latest Troubles: Legal and Financial Impact Ah, student loans—not just a headache for borrowers but now for lenders too. SLM Corporation, that name we know all too well in the student debt circus, has hit a snag. They've paused most of their third-party recovery activities. Let's dig in: net charge-offs for SLM in the third quarter shot up to a hefty $90.4...

Podcast Giants Converge in Tennessee for POD U Summit

Nashville Becomes a Hotspot for Podcasters Amidst the strumming guitars and honky-tonk vibes of Nashville, Tennessee transformed into the epicenter of podcasting innovation thanks to Rebel Audio's inaugural summit, POD U. Here we had big names like Mike 'Big Mike' Majlak rubbing shoulders with sports experts and media moguls—a true concoction of voices shaping the...

Invisors Expands PayBill Suite for Staffing Efficiency

Invisors Doubles Down on Workday Integration The winds of change are whispering in the Professional & Business Services sector as Invisors rolls out its enhanced PayBill Suite. This move isn't just another tick on some corporate checklist; it's a serious play to streamline the gnarly process of transitions that staffing firms face. Invisors is tying this suite tightly...

Beyond The Bounce Expands with Pro Pickleball Star

Pickleball's Power Play: The Media Move Out of the blue, the world of niche sports finds its hub. Beyond The Bounce steps up to the plate by roping in pickleball’s own Zane Navratil. The hype’s not in the spin here—this is serious business. The company plans to push the boundaries of the sport into mainstream media, or at least give it a decent shot. Zane Navratil:...