Clinton Adds to Her Electoral College Edge Deb

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Clinton Adds to Her Electoral College Edge

Debate probably only reinforces the new status quo


Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, UVA Center for Politics October 10th, 2016

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

We also wonder if we’re snapping back to the point in the race where some regularly red states might be moving back within grasp for Clinton. Polls have often shown a close race in Arizona, a state that has consistently voted significantly more Republican than the national average for more than half a century.

Trump still seemingly leads in Arizona, but the state’s growing Hispanic population should be energized to vote against Trump, and the state also has a decent-sized number of Mormons, conservative voters who don’t like Trump.

Speaking of, some readers may be startled by our shift of the only Mormon majority state, Utah, from Safe Republican all the way down to Leans Republican. But the recent developments in the Beehive State have been nothing short of jaw-dropping.

Trump has been weak there all along, thanks to the strong, continuing opposition of favorite son Mitt Romney, among others. In the state’s GOP caucus, Trump was walloped, receiving a mere 14% of the vote to Ted Cruz’s 69% and John Kasich’s 17%.

Early surveys showed Trump ahead in the general election race but running far, far below the massive majorities Utah has regularly delivered to GOP presidential candidates since 1968 (Romney received almost 73% in November 2012). Utah went from having a Republican nominee perfectly designed for the state, Romney, to one who is an almost uniquely poor fit.

And then came the 2005 Access Hollywood tape. In short order, a long list of Republican officials (including Gov. Gary Herbert, Sen. Mike Lee, and Reps. Jason Chaffetz, Mia Love, and Chris Stewart) denounced Trump. The Deseret News, long viewed as close to the leaders of Utah’s dominant Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons), wrote a scathing editorial repudiating Trump.

In a state where character matters a great deal, the Trump sex-talk tape was a deal-breaker. It is unclear what will happen now. The chances that Clinton will win Utah are minimal, but both Libertarian Gary Johnson and independent conservative Evan McMullin (backed by some Romney loyalists as well as national conservative leaders such as Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol) may receive an infusion of support.

Will they split the Trump opposition to allow Trump to eke out a victory in Utah? Probably, yet politics is in such turmoil in this usually predictable place that no one can know for sure just now.

Our new ratings are shown in Map 1. This map, which currently has no Toss-ups, shows Clinton mildly improving on Obama’s 332 electoral votes from 2012:

In this map, she carries all of the Obama states that year except for Iowa and Maine’s Second Congressional District, but she makes up for that by carrying North Carolina and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, both of which voted for Obama in 2008 but not 2012.

Map 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

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