You'd better HOPE for an actual diagnosis, otherwi
Post# of 65629
Posted On: 10/05/2016 6:58:53 PM
Re: INSTATRADER #21477
You'd better HOPE for an actual diagnosis, otherwise the election results are pretty much ..... 'baked in'.
Quote:
b]FiveThirtyEight Has Some Really Bad News for Trump and the GOP[/b]
Who will win the presidency? FiveThirtyEight has a pretty good idea.
According to statistical wizard, Hillary has a 75% chance of winning the Presidency, vs. Trump who only gets 25%.
FiveThirtyEight says that Clinton will likely win with 93 more electoral votes than Trump, and by 5% more of the popular vote. Interestingly enough, Johnson will come in with 7.2% of the popular vote, up from 7.1% the last time the site took a look at the numbers.
While this puts Johnson in a no-win situation, finishing above 7% qualifies the Libertarian party for federal campaign funding in 2020, which will go far into bringing this third party more into the spotlight, should those who fled the GOP and Democrat party continue their political journey as independents.
It should be noted that Nate Silver, and FiveThirtyEight have a pretty good track record in terms of predicting how races will go. That's not to say that they border on precognitive.
They get things wrong sometimes, and gladly admit when they do. Still, FiveThirtyEight isn't exactly known for missing their mark.
And in this case, if Silver is correct, then Trump's campaign is a proverbial dead man walking.
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