Hillary Clinton's plans for the economy would boost growth

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Oct 4, 2016 at 5:35 PM

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Hillary Clinton's plans for the economy would boost growth and create millions of jobs, according to a new analysis.

Moody's Analytics estimates that if the Democratic presidential nominee's proposals are enacted, the economy would create 10.4 million jobs during her presidency, or 3.2 million more than expected under current law.

The pace of GDP growth would also accelerate to an annual average of 2.7%, from the current forecast of 2.3%.

"The upshot of our analysis is that Secretary Clinton's economic policies when taken together will result in a stronger U.S. economy under almost any scenario," Moody's writes in its report.

Moody's Analytics is an independent research group, but the lead author of the report on Clinton is Mark Zandi, who donated $2,700 to her campaign last year, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.

Zandi was a vocal supporter of the stimulus package President Obama deployed during the financial crisis of 2009, but he has also served as an economic adviser to former Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

Moody's published a similar analysis of Donald Trump's plans in June. It concluded that the Republican presidential nominee's policies would result in an economic downturn that would last longer than the Great Recession. About 3.5 million Americans would lose their jobs, unemployment would jump to 7% and home prices would fall.

The reports are based on a forecasting model similar to those used by the Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office.

Moody's found that several of Clinton's key policies would boost the economy: Her immigration proposal would increase the number of skilled workers in the country, more government spending on infrastructure would help business productivity, and her paid family leave proposal would bring more people into the workforce.

Other Clinton proposals would have a more complicated effect. Gradually hiking the minimum wage to $12 would reduce employment by 650,000 as businesses chose to hire fewer low-wage employees. However, pay would rise substantially for workers that kept their jobs.

"Evident from her proposals is the belief that the country needs to invest more in education, infrastructure and workers, and that the well-to-do, and to a lesser degree financial institutions and businesses, should pay for it," Moody's said.

"While her budget arithmetic does not completely add up, it is pretty close, and the nation's debt load under her plan is no different than under current law," the group continued.

The team at Moody's also ran the numbers on what would happen if Clinton could only get some of her policies through Congress. This "Clinton Lite" option still produces stronger growth in GDP and jobs than current law, but the gains aren't as impressive.

In a third scenario, under which Clinton is elected but congressional opposition prevents her plans from being implemented, the economy's performance is similar to what is expected under current law.

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