Always good to review some math...here are 2 scena
Post# of 405
Posted On: 09/24/2016 11:41:10 PM
Always good to review some math...here are 2 scenarios (absolute worst case and a very likely scenario):
- WORST CASE: Obviously if Fluticare gets rejected, it would not be good news BUT let's stop and think about the company guidance.
15M for 2017 is 15x higher than what we were trading at when we were at 1M in revs. Our PPS was around 8 Cents then.
Lots of money earmarked for distribution for this nasal allergy relief solution would be freed up for marketing of existing products and other revenue generating acquisitions IMO.
So, since o/s has doubled then the math with Fluticare rejection would be 15x8 / 2 = 60 cents...let's put a range on it at 57-61 cents.
- LIKELY CASE:
Still 15M for 2017 plus another 13M from OTC Fluticare sales in USA plus another $5M from Int'l Fluticare sales would put us at approximately $33M in revs for full 2017 calendar year.
Again, o/s has doubled but we would be profitable in no time flat so the math here would be 33x8 / 2 = $1.32...let's put a range on it at $1.30 - 1.34
CONCLUSION:
Worst case is a DOUBLE from today's PPS levels inside of 15 months, with Likely case being around $1.34 about a year from now. Profitability and INNV as a likely buyout candidate should further enhance its value in a shorter time frame as well.
** For Q3 2016 - I am personally looking for same (outstanding) margin percentages as last qtr with Revs coming in at or above $1.71M for the qtr. Expecting o/s of ~105M ending 9/30.
- WORST CASE: Obviously if Fluticare gets rejected, it would not be good news BUT let's stop and think about the company guidance.
15M for 2017 is 15x higher than what we were trading at when we were at 1M in revs. Our PPS was around 8 Cents then.
Lots of money earmarked for distribution for this nasal allergy relief solution would be freed up for marketing of existing products and other revenue generating acquisitions IMO.
So, since o/s has doubled then the math with Fluticare rejection would be 15x8 / 2 = 60 cents...let's put a range on it at 57-61 cents.
- LIKELY CASE:
Still 15M for 2017 plus another 13M from OTC Fluticare sales in USA plus another $5M from Int'l Fluticare sales would put us at approximately $33M in revs for full 2017 calendar year.
Again, o/s has doubled but we would be profitable in no time flat so the math here would be 33x8 / 2 = $1.32...let's put a range on it at $1.30 - 1.34
CONCLUSION:
Worst case is a DOUBLE from today's PPS levels inside of 15 months, with Likely case being around $1.34 about a year from now. Profitability and INNV as a likely buyout candidate should further enhance its value in a shorter time frame as well.
** For Q3 2016 - I am personally looking for same (outstanding) margin percentages as last qtr with Revs coming in at or above $1.71M for the qtr. Expecting o/s of ~105M ending 9/30.
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