$TPAC Lots going on with TPAC, and most of us know it. IR has spelled out a very solid future for the company, and as many here have repeated, filings are the key. That has been stated by IR as well. For referential reinforcement, see the Tweet that Muse put out on Sept. 1st. It clearly states to pay attention to filings - not Tweets, not message board dialogue, and not day to day share price.
The filings will eventually catch up with the news being released on Twitter. Essentially, we are privy to what would normally be considered insider information. The only reason that it does not fall into that realm, is because there has been public dissemination in which no party is barred from gross acquisition of forward looking material as pertains to the company's business dealings. We are very lucky to have such a degree of foreshadowing at our disposal.
Once the filings catch up with the preceding timeline, the internal price per share, which mentioned by IR, being essentially synonymous with book value, will bake in a bottom line valuation. Numbers will serve as a baked-in value, and that value will give us a new bottom, one much higher than where we are currently trading. Also, once the filings depict revenues retained, and possibly, the depiction of subsequent events or entries into a material agreement, another dilemma of ours will be mitigated, with that dilemma being drawing in a larger number of shareholders. Many are watching this ticker regularly and are waiting for certain milestones before making an entry or reentry into the stock, especially those of the investing variety. Barring omission on my own part, let's not leave out the fact that, should the revenues within the fins create a given book value that is equivalent to what is being alluded to, the company as it is presented in the form of a stock ticker will have a deviation between its current value and and present share price, thus providing for a markedly undervalued condition, which as most know, is the best place to buy; get in before the price catches up to the value while the window of time presents itself; many of us already are doing this by adding the dips.
And while there has been debate about the value or inversely, the detriment, in the ongoing transparency, due to the gap between announcement and finalization of an event, the fact of the matter is that the company is still holding a ton of cards that we are not being shown. For a quick example, we have heard nothing about TPAC's foray into the automotive sector within recent times. Does that mean there is nothing in the works, or merely, that there is nothing being announced? Think about it. The updated roster on the company's management team now includes Jason Wenig as a director. I would place my better judgement alongside the conclusion that he is on board to leverage his expertise within that sector. And what about Paul Wiggum, also new to the management roster? Think he is here for no reason? Look him up on LinkedIn, browse in full his tenure with Boeing and his experience working with government systems, as well as spearheading projects with names like NASA involved.
And what about all this worry that the export division is going to supersede the bearing department in terms of revenues? Wouldn't it be silly if Neil Armstrong was once a master auto mechanic and everyone held him to it despite the fact that he had found another avenue that led him to put his footprint on the moon? Go with what works. Do not throw away opportunities, including the ones that were there to start. Find ways to combine them and make the best of both worlds. Isn't better to have an astronaut on board that also has some aptitude within the automotive or mechanical engineering and parts/systems repair arenas? Isn't it better to have both bearings and access to the exportation of raw materials? Again, my answer is a resounding yes.
There has been so much accomplished this past year it is incredible. I say this as a shareholder who has been invested(as in not a single share sold) for well over a year- with zero plans to sell. We have gone from a company that only had NAVAIR, which being only one of seven in the world is no small feat, to a company that paid off its last convertible note(see Apollo note paid in cash on Tpacbearings Twitter), to a company that went from having no factory to having one built and operational overseas in China(with another on the way in Australia), to having no revs, then 109k, then a deal for $135M with BTL(an international player), which now includes a merging of factory space(think reduction in overhead), to now having an export division, a financial regent, a business development group, and an investor relations department that updates regularly and fields questions and concerns.
Now, to take us up to today's date, take a look at the chart: http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=TPAC&am...Date=#jump
There has been a sell off, but many knew with the manipulation at hand that that was going to happen to drive it lower to scare cheap shares before moving back up.
The RSI is now nice and cool and is sitting below RSI50, which in the past has been the bounce range for the stock, especially when the SMA20 is trending upward, which can be seen if Dec-Feb RSI is isolated on the chart. The SMA20(middle bollinger band) is at .0014 and only a hair above today's trading. We may close even, it's too early to tell. Regardless, it takes a few days to confirm a trend. We may get shaken and close below the 20 today, then dropped once earlier in the day tomorrow to cause a big panic, only to close the day at .0013 or .0014 and then back above the 20 the next day, leaving us intact. Also of note, the lower band is rising sharply beneath us, which serves as a second layer of support. We have seen .0012's today, but should see no lower than .001(just as a personal prediction as to how I see it). Realize that a lot of the volume is likely not coming from longs, but more so, from manipulators who bought .0008's and .0009's to begin selling the top as the RSI cooked to drive it down(some of whom are also shorting), only to pick up new positions to do the same with in the low .001's. Rinse and repeat. The chart also shows a lot of fake outs during the downtrend in which the chart began alluding to uptrends, then did not confirm and brought the price back down. We could be seeing a fake out of a downtrend, this time hitting the opposite side of the middle band, only to drive it back up as a continuation of an uptrend.
Accumulation trend has been very strong since around the beginning of August, and that trend line is still intact. To see that for yourself take a look here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=TPAC Click on Strategy Tester, then Indicators and Strategies, then on the accumulation line, followed by the open space outside the indicator bar to show the accum/dist drawn on the chart.
Separate from the chart and the fundamentals, another sign of strength, however small, is the increasing in board marks, which as of today are at an all time high. Many watching this are data miners who read the boards for information but are not interactive players who contribute information or mark the board; and as mentioned before, there are plenty waiting for milestone confirmation to jump in, regardless of the future price of entry.
On the horizon: BTL deal begins, TPAC AU and AU SLA finalization(*takes months of legalese to finalize, as mention specifically at the bottom of the PR from May 2016), export deals, filings, revenues, Boeing, AVIC, share repurchasing program, .01 EOY target 2016, uplisting to OTCQB(fully reporting exchange - which will bring in a new crop of buyers), .05 price target upon finalization of the AU SLA, a potential 3rd SLA with a Chinese battery maker, PR's, a holiday season that IR mentioned will have rather significant information, a Chinese investor base of up to 5M(small in comparison to the total population, even if only a fraction buy in, especially with a reduced SS), Saturday CC's that are 2hrs in duration rather than 1hr, and disclosure of events and deals that no one outside the company is privy to yet. Remember, within one of the PR's it said we were expecting to capture many of the big players in aerospace and defense within the next 18months, from Boeing, to Lockheed, to Embraer, etc. And IR mentioned in another Tweet that TPAC was expected to become a major international player within the bearing sector within the next 36 months. That takes us to 2019, or the end of the timeline. Steve already gave us a valuation of 2019 revs at a P/E of 50 with the current SS and revs of $45. Later announced is that the timeline revs did not include the EIA deal. Go back to that valuation and now imagine that with a dramatically lower SS and EIA revs on top of it. We are right on track.
So, that said, in the meantime, there is going to be ups and downs in the price, and ups and downs in people's sentiment, ranging from the voicing of concerns to absolute excitement. All are valid. That's what gives us the most balanced and unbiased board possible. It also serves as an extra mirror for the company to view itself from another pair of eyes to see an additional source of reflection.
While there will always be issues, including in this company and its stock, I am very confident in my investment here and will be holding for the foreseeable future. I have already brought new investments in from outside our board and am going to continue getting more eyes here.
One of the best ways we can get a broader investor base before IR PR's news or before filings hit, is to use The Hangout's Boards. There are several general boards that are great for posting tickers and due diligence. It's something we can all do at least once a week. I have done it a few times already and will do it again.
I hope everyone has a great remainder of the day. The short term may be shaky, but the longer range looks mighty good.
The filings will eventually catch up with the news being released on Twitter. Essentially, we are privy to what would normally be considered insider information. The only reason that it does not fall into that realm, is because there has been public dissemination in which no party is barred from gross acquisition of forward looking material as pertains to the company's business dealings. We are very lucky to have such a degree of foreshadowing at our disposal.
Once the filings catch up with the preceding timeline, the internal price per share, which mentioned by IR, being essentially synonymous with book value, will bake in a bottom line valuation. Numbers will serve as a baked-in value, and that value will give us a new bottom, one much higher than where we are currently trading. Also, once the filings depict revenues retained, and possibly, the depiction of subsequent events or entries into a material agreement, another dilemma of ours will be mitigated, with that dilemma being drawing in a larger number of shareholders. Many are watching this ticker regularly and are waiting for certain milestones before making an entry or reentry into the stock, especially those of the investing variety. Barring omission on my own part, let's not leave out the fact that, should the revenues within the fins create a given book value that is equivalent to what is being alluded to, the company as it is presented in the form of a stock ticker will have a deviation between its current value and and present share price, thus providing for a markedly undervalued condition, which as most know, is the best place to buy; get in before the price catches up to the value while the window of time presents itself; many of us already are doing this by adding the dips.
And while there has been debate about the value or inversely, the detriment, in the ongoing transparency, due to the gap between announcement and finalization of an event, the fact of the matter is that the company is still holding a ton of cards that we are not being shown. For a quick example, we have heard nothing about TPAC's foray into the automotive sector within recent times. Does that mean there is nothing in the works, or merely, that there is nothing being announced? Think about it. The updated roster on the company's management team now includes Jason Wenig as a director. I would place my better judgement alongside the conclusion that he is on board to leverage his expertise within that sector. And what about Paul Wiggum, also new to the management roster? Think he is here for no reason? Look him up on LinkedIn, browse in full his tenure with Boeing and his experience working with government systems, as well as spearheading projects with names like NASA involved.
And what about all this worry that the export division is going to supersede the bearing department in terms of revenues? Wouldn't it be silly if Neil Armstrong was once a master auto mechanic and everyone held him to it despite the fact that he had found another avenue that led him to put his footprint on the moon? Go with what works. Do not throw away opportunities, including the ones that were there to start. Find ways to combine them and make the best of both worlds. Isn't better to have an astronaut on board that also has some aptitude within the automotive or mechanical engineering and parts/systems repair arenas? Isn't it better to have both bearings and access to the exportation of raw materials? Again, my answer is a resounding yes.
There has been so much accomplished this past year it is incredible. I say this as a shareholder who has been invested(as in not a single share sold) for well over a year- with zero plans to sell. We have gone from a company that only had NAVAIR, which being only one of seven in the world is no small feat, to a company that paid off its last convertible note(see Apollo note paid in cash on Tpacbearings Twitter), to a company that went from having no factory to having one built and operational overseas in China(with another on the way in Australia), to having no revs, then 109k, then a deal for $135M with BTL(an international player), which now includes a merging of factory space(think reduction in overhead), to now having an export division, a financial regent, a business development group, and an investor relations department that updates regularly and fields questions and concerns.
Now, to take us up to today's date, take a look at the chart: http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=TPAC&am...Date=#jump
There has been a sell off, but many knew with the manipulation at hand that that was going to happen to drive it lower to scare cheap shares before moving back up.
The RSI is now nice and cool and is sitting below RSI50, which in the past has been the bounce range for the stock, especially when the SMA20 is trending upward, which can be seen if Dec-Feb RSI is isolated on the chart. The SMA20(middle bollinger band) is at .0014 and only a hair above today's trading. We may close even, it's too early to tell. Regardless, it takes a few days to confirm a trend. We may get shaken and close below the 20 today, then dropped once earlier in the day tomorrow to cause a big panic, only to close the day at .0013 or .0014 and then back above the 20 the next day, leaving us intact. Also of note, the lower band is rising sharply beneath us, which serves as a second layer of support. We have seen .0012's today, but should see no lower than .001(just as a personal prediction as to how I see it). Realize that a lot of the volume is likely not coming from longs, but more so, from manipulators who bought .0008's and .0009's to begin selling the top as the RSI cooked to drive it down(some of whom are also shorting), only to pick up new positions to do the same with in the low .001's. Rinse and repeat. The chart also shows a lot of fake outs during the downtrend in which the chart began alluding to uptrends, then did not confirm and brought the price back down. We could be seeing a fake out of a downtrend, this time hitting the opposite side of the middle band, only to drive it back up as a continuation of an uptrend.
Accumulation trend has been very strong since around the beginning of August, and that trend line is still intact. To see that for yourself take a look here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=TPAC Click on Strategy Tester, then Indicators and Strategies, then on the accumulation line, followed by the open space outside the indicator bar to show the accum/dist drawn on the chart.
Separate from the chart and the fundamentals, another sign of strength, however small, is the increasing in board marks, which as of today are at an all time high. Many watching this are data miners who read the boards for information but are not interactive players who contribute information or mark the board; and as mentioned before, there are plenty waiting for milestone confirmation to jump in, regardless of the future price of entry.
On the horizon: BTL deal begins, TPAC AU and AU SLA finalization(*takes months of legalese to finalize, as mention specifically at the bottom of the PR from May 2016), export deals, filings, revenues, Boeing, AVIC, share repurchasing program, .01 EOY target 2016, uplisting to OTCQB(fully reporting exchange - which will bring in a new crop of buyers), .05 price target upon finalization of the AU SLA, a potential 3rd SLA with a Chinese battery maker, PR's, a holiday season that IR mentioned will have rather significant information, a Chinese investor base of up to 5M(small in comparison to the total population, even if only a fraction buy in, especially with a reduced SS), Saturday CC's that are 2hrs in duration rather than 1hr, and disclosure of events and deals that no one outside the company is privy to yet. Remember, within one of the PR's it said we were expecting to capture many of the big players in aerospace and defense within the next 18months, from Boeing, to Lockheed, to Embraer, etc. And IR mentioned in another Tweet that TPAC was expected to become a major international player within the bearing sector within the next 36 months. That takes us to 2019, or the end of the timeline. Steve already gave us a valuation of 2019 revs at a P/E of 50 with the current SS and revs of $45. Later announced is that the timeline revs did not include the EIA deal. Go back to that valuation and now imagine that with a dramatically lower SS and EIA revs on top of it. We are right on track.
So, that said, in the meantime, there is going to be ups and downs in the price, and ups and downs in people's sentiment, ranging from the voicing of concerns to absolute excitement. All are valid. That's what gives us the most balanced and unbiased board possible. It also serves as an extra mirror for the company to view itself from another pair of eyes to see an additional source of reflection.
While there will always be issues, including in this company and its stock, I am very confident in my investment here and will be holding for the foreseeable future. I have already brought new investments in from outside our board and am going to continue getting more eyes here.
One of the best ways we can get a broader investor base before IR PR's news or before filings hit, is to use The Hangout's Boards. There are several general boards that are great for posting tickers and due diligence. It's something we can all do at least once a week. I have done it a few times already and will do it again.
I hope everyone has a great remainder of the day. The short term may be shaky, but the longer range looks mighty good.
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Trans-Pacific Aerospace (TPAC) Stock Research Links
Do your own DD. Assume everyone here is either an amateur trader/investor or a paid interest such as a compensated pumper/basher. My posts are strictly for entertainment purposes. I am not on Wall St., do not work for a group, and only get paid when my personal investments materialize. I am only responsible for my own gains and losses; no one is to blame for my mistakes or for any advice taken from postings; likewise, I am not to blame for any advice you take of mine, regardless of gains or losses from doing so. Good luck to all; may you live long and prosper greatly.
