Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops

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Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190
Clinton now above 270 Safe or Likely Democratic electoral votes for the first time

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato's Crystal Ball August 18th, 2016

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...ps-to-190/

New Hampshire may just have four electoral votes, but it’s important. If you doubt it, just ask any Granite State citizens, and they’ll tell you about their first-in-the-nation primary.

Even that quartet of electoral votes can matter; in 2000, if Al Gore had just won them (and without Ralph Nader on the ballot, he probably would have), Gore would have been president even without Florida. He didn’t and he wasn’t.

Since 2000, we’ve watched New Hampshire become more reliable for the Democrats in presidential years. Neighbor John Kerry of Massachusetts won 50.2% in 2004, and Barack Obama easily carried the Granite State in 2008 (54.1%) and 2012 (52.0%).

And now, Hillary Clinton is doing so well that her polling lead in the state is about seven-to-eight points, depending on the average, and now we’re ready to shift New Hampshire from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.

We waited a while, despite favorable polls for Clinton, because it once seemed reasonable to imagine Trump making a play for the land of Live Free or Die. The state is very white (as of 2014, it had the fourth-smallest nonwhite population share), and the Crystal Ball team hypothesized in 2015 that lily-white Obama states such as Iowa and New Hampshire could be particularly vulnerable for Democrats in 2016.

The Granite State also has a sizable number of independent voters, a group Trump appeared to be attracting. In fact, looking back to the 33 states with exit poll data in 2012, New Hampshire had the second-largest share of self-identified independents (43% of voters).

However, as it turns out, one of Trump’s strengths — his disproportionate support among blue-collar, non-college-graduate white voters — is almost certainly a liability in the Granite State.

Out of the 50 states, New Hampshire has the fourth-largest percentage of non-Hispanic whites with at least a bachelor’s degree in the country, with 32% of the state’s age 25-or-older population meeting those criteria.

So while Trump can arguably make a play in Rust Belt states such as Ohio (only 22% whites with at least a bachelor’s degree) and Pennsylvania (just 24%), as well as Iowa (24%), New Hampshire’s mostly white voter base holds less potential for Trump. Our friends at the Cook Political Report have estimated that about half of the New Hampshire electorate will be made up of college-educated whites, well above the 37% projected national rate.

New Hampshire’s new status is no small change, since we are putting Clinton over the 270-mark in the Electoral College (273 electoral votes, to be precise) with states we have classified as Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic.

Clinton had previously been at 269 in those categories. To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic (see our map, below) but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state.

Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks, but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration.

On the other hand go ahead. It was just going to be used for 'leftist indoctrination' anyway. LOL!

Map 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings

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