She didn't 'pull out' super delegate votes in any
Post# of 51861
Posted On: 08/04/2016 7:49:47 AM
She didn't 'pull out' super delegate votes in any primary. There are neither enough of those people voting or enough of them to poll.
They are delegates 'pledged' to vote for a candidate.
As for Trump outperforming his polls in the primaries? Not so much.
You're going down the same road Romney supporters did in '12, claiming the polls are wrong. That led to the infamous 'non-skewed pollls'....polls that showed what Republicans wanted to believe.
They are delegates 'pledged' to vote for a candidate.
As for Trump outperforming his polls in the primaries? Not so much.
You're going down the same road Romney supporters did in '12, claiming the polls are wrong. That led to the infamous 'non-skewed pollls'....polls that showed what Republicans wanted to believe.
Quote:
Trump Supporters Probably Aren’t Lying To Pollsters
fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/
By Harry Enten
My general findings here match those of The New York Times’ Nate Cohn, who looked at national polling rather than state polling. He found that Trump consistently did better in online polls (the method by which most non-live-interview national polls are conducted) than his cumulative vote percentage during the primary season.
This holds when you control for the demographics of each state that voted. That is, the online national polls regularly overestimated Trump’s support among Republican voters.
Does this mean there never was a shy Trump-er effect? Not necessarily. There could have been one that disappeared as the primary season progressed and voters realized that Trump was relatively popular among Republicans.
If the polls are now underestimating Trump’s general electorate support because of a “shy Trump-er” effect, that could change in the next couple of months.
Indeed, there’s little reason to think that we’re in for a surprise in the general election because of Trump outperforming his polling on Election Day. As Cohn pointed out, the difference in Hillary Clinton’s margin over Trump between live-interview and online polls is fairly small right now at 2.5 percentage points, and that may have more to do with how the horse-race question is asked than the survey mode.
This doesn’t mean that Trump won’t greatly outperform his polls or that people won’t be afraid to voice their support for him. But when you look at the evidence from the primary season and the general election survey results so far, I would bet on the polls getting Trump right again.
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