The 11 states that will determine the 2016 election
The interactive map
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Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump bring unique strengths and weaknesses to their general-election clash. But after months of polling, the Electoral College landscape on which they will compete largely mirrors the one that has determined the presidency in the past four cycles.
POLITICO's analysis of polling data suggests 11 states will determine the next president: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. All were battleground states in the previous two elections. But that doesn’t mean the map is constant: As the states’ demographics change, and the parties’ relative appeal among various groups transforms, some states move toward one party or the other over the long term.
While those changes — combined with the unusual nature of Trump’s campaign — add an element of uncertainty to the campaign, most pollsters agree that Clinton and the Democrats will enter the general election with a perceptible advantage: Of the 11 states most likely to determine the victor, President Barack Obama won all 11 in 2008, and 10 of the 11 in 2012.
Polls show Clinton with a lead nationally, and in at least eight of the individual battleground states. And these polls mostly reflect a surge in Trump’s support after the real estate mogul dispatched his GOP opponents last month — but were conducted before Clinton clinched her party’s nomination.
Still, data have consistently shown Trump running strongest among white voters without a college degree — potentially accelerating a trend in which those voters have moved rapidly toward Republicans over the past two decades. At the same time, polls and the general tenor of Trump’s campaign portend poorly for the presumptive GOP nominee’s odds of attracting significant support among nonwhite voters.
Whites have been declining as a share of the electorate over the past few decades, and 3 in 10 voters this fall are expected to be nonwhite. But that movement is not uniform across the map: Some battleground states have larger shares of nonwhite voters, and some states are diversifying faster than others.
That sets the usual cadre of swing states in two classifications: states in which increasing diversity has driven a move toward Democrats, and those with higher concentrations of white voters, including some who have been moving modestly toward the GOP, where Trump might outperform other Republicans.
In addition, there are a handful of other, nontraditional states that each campaign thinks it can put in play. These include states, like Arizona and Georgia, in which Democrats believe demographic changes will make them more competitive in future elections. But it also includes states Trump has said he thinks he can win that left the GOP decades ago, though there are few data to support his assertions.
The interactive map
bottom of that page
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump bring unique strengths and weaknesses to their general-election clash. But after months of polling, the Electoral College landscape on which they will compete largely mirrors the one that has determined the presidency in the past four cycles.
POLITICO's analysis of polling data suggests 11 states will determine the next president: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. All were battleground states in the previous two elections. But that doesn’t mean the map is constant: As the states’ demographics change, and the parties’ relative appeal among various groups transforms, some states move toward one party or the other over the long term.
While those changes — combined with the unusual nature of Trump’s campaign — add an element of uncertainty to the campaign, most pollsters agree that Clinton and the Democrats will enter the general election with a perceptible advantage: Of the 11 states most likely to determine the victor, President Barack Obama won all 11 in 2008, and 10 of the 11 in 2012.
Polls show Clinton with a lead nationally, and in at least eight of the individual battleground states. And these polls mostly reflect a surge in Trump’s support after the real estate mogul dispatched his GOP opponents last month — but were conducted before Clinton clinched her party’s nomination.
Still, data have consistently shown Trump running strongest among white voters without a college degree — potentially accelerating a trend in which those voters have moved rapidly toward Republicans over the past two decades. At the same time, polls and the general tenor of Trump’s campaign portend poorly for the presumptive GOP nominee’s odds of attracting significant support among nonwhite voters.
Whites have been declining as a share of the electorate over the past few decades, and 3 in 10 voters this fall are expected to be nonwhite. But that movement is not uniform across the map: Some battleground states have larger shares of nonwhite voters, and some states are diversifying faster than others.
That sets the usual cadre of swing states in two classifications: states in which increasing diversity has driven a move toward Democrats, and those with higher concentrations of white voters, including some who have been moving modestly toward the GOP, where Trump might outperform other Republicans.
In addition, there are a handful of other, nontraditional states that each campaign thinks it can put in play. These include states, like Arizona and Georgia, in which Democrats believe demographic changes will make them more competitive in future elections. But it also includes states Trump has said he thinks he can win that left the GOP decades ago, though there are few data to support his assertions.
