Assessing RNC 2016 at the halfway point Larry J

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Assessing RNC 2016 at the halfway point

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley July 20th, 2016

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

(CLEVELAND) — With two nights down at the Republican National Convention and two nights to go, here are five quick observations on Trump TV:

An uneven presentation

Some conventions resemble a work of art or a play with a polished script. Others are more like half-finished modern art or a first draft of a production that can’t even make off-off-Broadway. The 2016 Republican National Convention strikes us as a strange hybrid.

The technical details have been nicely presented, from the advanced lighting to the stage presentation where Donald Trump made a magnificent silhouetted entrance surrounded by fog to introduce his wife on Monday night.

It’s the substance of that moment that could have used more work — and permissions. As everyone now knows, Melania Trump’s speech contained phrases and passages taken from Michelle Obama’s 2008 convention oration for her husband. A plagiarism website consulted by Washingtonian magazine found that the odds all these words were concocted without reference to Obama’s talk were at least a trillion to one.

There also were some signs that a few good lines from Donald Trump, Jr’s well-received Tuesday speech were taken from a previously-published article, but then the author of the piece said that he wrote the speech for Don Jr. Plus, Donald Trump triumphantly marched onstage to Queen’s “We Are the Champions” on Monday — which royally infuriated the band because they oppose Trump and had never given permission for the song to be used. You get the picture: Much of this program seems thrown together and badly considered.

Melania’s speech was not the end of Monday night’s program, as it should have been since it was an emotional highlight. Other prominent speakers such as Sen. Joni Ernst droned on afterwards to a nearly empty hall. Tuesday night also ended with a sparse crowd. This is not the impression of enthusiasm that a party wants to communicate.

Also, if anyone had carefully examined the speeches to eliminate duplication and ensure just the right tone, we couldn’t tell it. On Monday, there was a deluge of anger in the featured remarks from the Benghazi mother getting way too personal in accusing Hillary Clinton, essentially, of murdering her son, to former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani screaming like a madman about Muslim extremists — and refusing to see the irony. Doesn’t anyone in politics remember media maestro Marshall McLuhan, who advised that television was a cool medium?

Running back 1968 in a much different America

There has been a fair amount of commentary suggesting that Trump is channeling Richard Nixon, projecting a law and order message in a country riven by turmoil. The Nixon comparisons are nothing new — the Trump campaign has been using signs with the Nixonian motto “the Silent Majority stands with Trump” for much of the campaign. But Trump is pushing this message in a nation that is very different than Nixon’s America of 1968. Estimating based on Gallup’s 1968 adjusted demographic voter data, the electorate was about 90% white in that election. This election, the electorate is going to be just around 70% white in all likelihood.

The country has changed a great deal in the past half-century. Additionally, despite some real concerns going into the convention, through two days there has not been chaos in Cleveland. To be clear — that does not necessarily mean that there won’t be. Protests and dissent likely will only grow as the convention goes on.

But police forces are out in immense force and, at least so far, this is not a redux of the disastrously violent and divisive 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago. Not even close. And we greatly hope it stays that way.

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