Over the last few decades, presidential election
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Over the last few decades, presidential election outcomes within the majority of states have become more and more predictable.
From 1992- 2012
13 states (with 102 electoral votes) voted Republican every time
19 states (with 242) voted Democratic every time
If this 20 year pattern continues, Democrats only would need a mere 28 electoral votes from other states.
If Republicans lose Florida (29), they would lose.