For fun I did a VERY high level look through Mediv
Post# of 72447
Posted On: 06/24/2016 1:24:12 PM
Re: Loose Lips #24520
For fun I did a VERY high level look through Medivation's 8k's since 2008 because I was curious how their PPS correlated to the progress of events. Here is a real rough overview. (Disclosure: I only spent about 20 minutes skimming through all of the info, so there is a lot more going on with financing and other drug development stuff I did not include)
2008: Phase 1 / 2 dose escalation trial enrollment complete for prostate cancer drug. Year-end PPS ~$3.60.
2009: Phase 3 for cancer drug starts, other phase 3 trials for Alzheimer’s going. Year-end PPS ~$9.50.
2010: Phase 3 enrollment for cancer drug complete, dosing continues. Phase 3 for Alzheimer’s drug enrollment complete. Year-end PPS ~$4. (I didn’t research why the dip in price)
2011: Interim analysis of cancer drug and early halting of phase 3 trial for cancer drug. Year-end PPS $11.53.
2012: Received FDA market approval in August and started sales of the prostate cancer drug (now named XTANDI) that year. Year-end PPS $25.58.
2013-2015: XTANDI granted UK market approval in 2013. Continued with other drug developments and marketing/selling XTANDI which grew year by year from $100M to $313M in sales. Year-end PPS $32, $49, $48, respectively.
2016: Sanofi buyout offer of $9.3B. Current PPS ~$53. Medivation 8K statements about XTANDI revenue and projected growth:
“XTANDI’s momentum was recently demonstrated by our strong first quarter. For the first time, XTANDI achieved greater than 50% share of the novel hormonal therapy prostate cancer market in the United States, surpassing Johnson & Johnson’s Zytiga (abiraterone), despite launching 16 months later.
XTANDI’s newly established leadership position and the continued growth of this franchise enabled us to reaffirm full-year 2016 revenue guidance of $900 to $970 million, strengthening our conviction that Sanofi’s proposal substantially undervalues the company.”
If this timeline is any indication of what it takes to get an effective cancer drug to market, I'd say CTIX is looking at the earliest date of 2020 for market approval of K. Which, again, I am making some large general assumptions based on one company's successful drug. Plus K will be able to treat multiple forms of cancer, so I expect that the path to market will be faster than a drug which only treats one form.
Luckily we have a LOT of other catalysts happening well before 2020 to propel CTIX forward!!
2008: Phase 1 / 2 dose escalation trial enrollment complete for prostate cancer drug. Year-end PPS ~$3.60.
2009: Phase 3 for cancer drug starts, other phase 3 trials for Alzheimer’s going. Year-end PPS ~$9.50.
2010: Phase 3 enrollment for cancer drug complete, dosing continues. Phase 3 for Alzheimer’s drug enrollment complete. Year-end PPS ~$4. (I didn’t research why the dip in price)
2011: Interim analysis of cancer drug and early halting of phase 3 trial for cancer drug. Year-end PPS $11.53.
2012: Received FDA market approval in August and started sales of the prostate cancer drug (now named XTANDI) that year. Year-end PPS $25.58.
2013-2015: XTANDI granted UK market approval in 2013. Continued with other drug developments and marketing/selling XTANDI which grew year by year from $100M to $313M in sales. Year-end PPS $32, $49, $48, respectively.
2016: Sanofi buyout offer of $9.3B. Current PPS ~$53. Medivation 8K statements about XTANDI revenue and projected growth:
“XTANDI’s momentum was recently demonstrated by our strong first quarter. For the first time, XTANDI achieved greater than 50% share of the novel hormonal therapy prostate cancer market in the United States, surpassing Johnson & Johnson’s Zytiga (abiraterone), despite launching 16 months later.
XTANDI’s newly established leadership position and the continued growth of this franchise enabled us to reaffirm full-year 2016 revenue guidance of $900 to $970 million, strengthening our conviction that Sanofi’s proposal substantially undervalues the company.”
If this timeline is any indication of what it takes to get an effective cancer drug to market, I'd say CTIX is looking at the earliest date of 2020 for market approval of K. Which, again, I am making some large general assumptions based on one company's successful drug. Plus K will be able to treat multiple forms of cancer, so I expect that the path to market will be faster than a drug which only treats one form.
Luckily we have a LOT of other catalysts happening well before 2020 to propel CTIX forward!!
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