Understanding the Turbulence Buffeting the Trump

New Post Public Reply Private Reply Replies (0) Message Board

Jun 18, 2016 at 10:39 AM

Quote:

Understanding the Turbulence Buffeting the Trump Train

ByJosh MarshallPublishedJune 17, 2016, 1:37 PM EDT

I noted earlier this week that Donald Trump is uniquely reliant on strong poll numbers. Every candidate is dependent on good poll numbers for morale, fundraising and more.

But Trump's platform isn't abolishing Obamacare or lowering taxes or kicking more ass in the Middle East. His platform is "winning." So if he's clearly not winning, it's uniquely debilitating.

But there's another way to understand this phenomenon, a broader framework for understanding Trump's current rough patch. It is the inherent turbulence faced by a bullshit-based candidate making first contact with an at least loosely reality-based world. LOL!

In the Trump bubble crowd sizes at his rallies are the most effective barometer of public opinion. They mean he'll win. Polls are dumb, especially when they show he's losing. He opposed the Iraq War before there was even an Iraq War. Public opinion is defined by the mix of white nationalists and white sad sacks who populate his Twitter feed.

As I noted, this is all the mindset of the high pressure sale, a spun up reality that exists with little necessary connection to anything outside the bubble of the sale. It's not counter-reality, just indifferent to reality.

This piece is truly a 'Rosetta Stone' for understanding some posters on this board, LOL!

But Trump now needs to operate with and collaborate with people who will face real electorates in November. They know a modern presidential campaign requires $1 billion dollars of funding. They still know it does after Trump insists it only requires $50 million. No one outside the Trump fact bubble believes that.

Here we get back to the simple, critical difference between the primaries and the general election. Trump supporters exist entirely within the Trump fact bubble. They were more than sufficient to win the Republican primaries. They either believe his claims or are indifferent to their accuracy.

The Trump world is based on a self-contained, self-sustaining bullshit feedback loop. Trump isn't racist. He's actually the least racist person in America. Hispanics aren't offended by his racist tirades against Judge Curiel. He's going to do great with Hispanics! Didn't you see the new Hispanics for Trump Facebook page? He'll put California in play and it won't even be that hard.

Trump can say he's going to get historically high numbers of African-American votes, but the worried Republican officials he's talking to know that's nonsense after he says it just as much as they did before he said it.

Trump's problem is that the general election puts him in contact with voters outside the Trump bubble and just as important necessary allies (all Republican office holders) who rely on voters outside the Trump fact bubble. Not that many maybe, but enough of them.

To put it more concretely, as I said at the top, the general election puts a bullshit based candidacy in direct contact with the reality based world.

That creates not only turbulence but turbulence that builds on itself because the interaction gets in the spokes of each of these two, fundamentally different idea systems. You're seeing the most telling signs of that with the growing number of Republicans who, having already endorsed Trump, are now literally refusing to discuss him or simply walking away when his name is mentioned.

In one of the most extreme examples, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), an early and aggressive Trump supporter who actually co-chairs Trump's House Leadership Committee is now incensed when he's asked to defend Trump!

"I am not a surrogate,” Hunter told The Hill yesterday. I am a congressman. I can't speak for anybody else but me. Everybody's asking me to explain all these things that he said. Some of these things, I don't know what Donald Trump is thinking. ... I don't know where Donald Trump is coming from."

This is why all the claims about the cable networks creating Trump and the press not doing their job through the Fall and Spring were basically mistaken. As long as Trump was campaigning within the Trump fact bubble, no outside criticism or scrutiny really mattered.

But Trump is now needing to collaborate or coexist with candidates who need to run in November in electorates that are not 100% white and right-wing. That's a big problem. Because his ability to spin up alternative realities for them is quite limited.

The biggest warning sign on top of this is that that inevitable turbulence created by a bullshit based campaign making first contact with a (loosely) reality based world does not seem to be having a softening effect on Trump.

It seems to be making him more hyperbolic and aggressive, especially toward the political allies he most needs. That portends more severe turbulence to come.

Newer

Older

Scroll down for more posts ▼

Top 10 Most Recent News Articles

Gildan Faces Class Action Deadline Over Fraud Claims

Gildan's Legal Storm: Fraud Allegations When news hits about a big player like Gildan Activewear (NYSE: GIL) facing a class-action lawsuit, it's like a thunderstorm for investors who traded their stocks between February 19, 2025, and June 15, 2026. This lawsuit alleges what we some might call classic financial engineering—channel stuffing to be precise—that’s got...

Why Accurate HVAC Load Calculations Matter

By Owen Jenkins Updated Nov 1, 2026 Category News Views 205

Beyond Square Footage: Critical HVAC Considerations When it comes to heating and cooling your home, simply considering its square footage is like trying to predict the weather with nothing but a coin flip. Bob Schmid, an HVAC guru from Ocean View, NJ, pulls back the curtain on why the details really matter in determining the most efficient and effective HVAC setup for any...

Context Labs Unveils AI Distillery for Enterprises

Rethinking AI with Sovereignty in Mind A bouquet of tech buzzwords lands on every investor's doorstep with the unveiling of Context Labs' latest contraption. We’re talking about the AI Distillery™, which promises enterprises a way to run sovereign AI systems by keeping data in-house. Now, if you’re nodding along to the buzz, let's cut through the clutter....

Smart Salary Moves for S Corp Owners: Riggs Unpacks Insights

Decoding the S Corp Salary Dance How much salary should the savvy owners of S corporations draw? It ain't a simple task or one-size-fits-all deal, folks. David Riggs spills the beans on HelloNation, sharing insights on this complex tango between drawing wages and raking in shareholder distributions. In the end, it’s about playing by the IRS rules—or risking a penalty...

Baystate Health Expands: A New Chapter with Mercy

Baystate Health Moves Forward with Strategic Integration Well, here's a tale that's as much about legacy as it is about progress. Baystate Health has brought Baystate Mercy Hospital into its fold, blending history with future prospects. This integration, folks, isn't just a merger—it's a downright overhaul of how healthcare operates in Western Massachusetts. We’re...

Home Genius Exteriors Expands with Five New Locations

Pushing Beyond the Backyard: Home Genius Opens New Doors Hold onto your hats, folks. Home Genius Exteriors is making a splashy move by setting up shop in five new points across the map. We're talking Toledo, Ohio; Nashville, Tennessee; Lehigh Valley and Erie in Pennsylvania; and Dover, Delaware. That's quite a leap from their cozy base of operations, marking a clear push...

Bahrain's USD 3.89 Billion Investment Surge in 2026

Bahrain's Bold Moves to Woo Global Investment Bahrain's never been one to tiptoe around, huh? With a whopping USD 3.89 billion on the line, the Kingdom's flashing its neon sign to investors: "Open for Business!" These Golden License projects aren't just a few shiny new ventures — they're bridging aviation logistics, real estate, and the tech sector. Talk about ambition....

Decoding Real Estate Value: A Market Insider's Take

Riding the Waves of Real Estate Pricing Homeowners dipping their toes into the real estate market know that setting the right price ain't a walk in the park. Luckily, Matt Nuzie, Shelton's real estate pro, has peeled back the layers on comparative market analyses (CMA) in a HelloNation piece. This isn't just about tossing a number out there—it's about understanding the...

Ensuring Flooring Stability: Acclimation's Key Role

Dive into the World of Flooring Acclimation You ever hear about flooring acclimation? Sounds as riveting as watching paint dry, right? But Austin J. Messina from Salem, New Hampshire, is here to tell us it's the secret to flooring that doesn't buckle under pressure—literally. Messina's insights, splashed across the pages of HelloNation, delve deep into the nitty-gritty...

XPeng Hits New Monthly Delivery Record in October

XPeng Smashes Delivery Records Yet Again Ah, the green light’s on for XPeng, and it's a bright one! This October, we learned that XPeng hit the throttle hard with a new record of 50,237 vehicles delivered. Now, that's a sizable rally—a 22% climb month-over-month and shooting 20% higher than last October. For a company like XPeng, which resembles a bulldog with its...