You poll is an outlier', which means your choice of it is 'cherry picking'.
You can believe it and other similarly 'unreliable info' if
you choose, but don't make any bar room bets based on the
numbers you 'need to believe'.
Just post it hear for sh*ts and giggles, for the 'reality based posters'. LOL!
This was a common phenomenon during the '12 elections when the Romney campaign turned to what were referred to 'unskewed polls' because they could not bring themselves to believe the public polling numbers showing Romney behind.
There is a more balanced and more historical view of the Hispanic voting patterns:
You can believe it and other similarly 'unreliable info' if
you choose, but don't make any bar room bets based on the
numbers you 'need to believe'.
Just post it hear for sh*ts and giggles, for the 'reality based posters'. LOL!
This was a common phenomenon during the '12 elections when the Romney campaign turned to what were referred to 'unskewed polls' because they could not bring themselves to believe the public polling numbers showing Romney behind.
Quote:Conservatives began claiming the polls were wrong, that they vastly overestimated what turnout levels would be among blacks, Latinos, and young people. UnSkewedPolls.com changed the number of Democrats and Republicans in polls to show Romney leading everywhere.
There is a more balanced and more historical view of the Hispanic voting patterns:
Quote:Barreto, Clinton’s Latino pollster, dismissed SurveyMonkey’s Hispanic results in a phone interview, telling a POLITICO reporter: “You would do a better job just making numbers up.”
Barreto instead pointed to a Latino Decisions survey from April, conducted independently of Clinton’s campaign, showing the former secretary of state with a much larger advantage among Hispanic voters, 76 percent to 11 percent. (Latino Decisions conducts large-sample surveys in both English and Spanish, Barreto said.)
The accuracy of the Hispanic polling numbers isn’t just an academic question since Trump and his surrogates have been trumpeting favorable poll results among Hispanics, looking to counter the narrative that his candidacy will be a demographic disaster for the GOP.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in an interview with CNN on Thursday that he’s worried Trump could damage the GOP’s relations with Hispanics for generations — like 1964 nominee Barry Goldwater did with black voters after Goldwater opposed civil-rights legislation.
The GOP has also invested in appeals to Hispanic voters since 2012 — when 1-in-10 voters were Hispanic, according to exit polls, and they broke heavily for President Barack Obama: 71 percent, to just 27 percent for Romney.
Many in the party worry that significant elements of Trump’s candidacy — from his disparaging remarks about Mexicans in his announcement speech, to his recent pandering “taco bowl” tweet — threaten to undermine those efforts.
No one expects Republicans to carry the Hispanic vote since Democrats have dominated it for decades, winning at least 56 percent in each of the past nine presidential elections.
Still, the share of the vote that the GOP nominee claims matters a great deal: Every Republican over that time who has won at least a third of the Hispanic vote has won the presidency — Ronald Reagan won 35 percent and 37 percent, respectively, in his two victories, and George W. Bush won 35 percent and 40 percent in his two bids. Only George H.W. Bush in 1988 won less than a third (30 percent) but still carried the day.
At the same time, there has been some measure of relative stability in the Hispanic vote, which means there’s likely a limit to how much Trump could sink the party’s vote share. The GOP’s low-water mark was in 1996, when former Sen. Robert Dole won 21 percent of Hispanics.
Barreto thinks Trump won’t even surpass Dole’s dismal performance.
“I would fully expect that he’ll be in the low teens on Election Day,” he said. “That doesn’t mean other people won’t put out polls showing Trump at 30 [percent among Hispanics]. I will ignore those. It’s just complete nonsense.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-...z4B72IkhkJ
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Quote:The Whole Romney Ticket Believed in Unskewed Polls?
Elspeth Reeve
http://www.thewire.com/politics/2012/11/whole...lls/58852/
Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan both believed the public polls were wrong, and that they'd win on Election Day. Their wives did, too.
"I don't think there was one person who saw this coming," a senior adviser told CBS News' Jan Crawford. An advisor said of Romney, "He was shellshocked."
When Romney claimed on Election Day that he hadn't written a concession speech, it sounded like trash talk. Apparently it wasn't. How could they not have seen it coming?
In the last weeks of the campaign, Romney's campaign sounded super confident -- New York's Jonathan Chait wrote that they were bluffing when aides said they could win Nevada, or when Romney surrogate Rob Portman called Ohio a "dead heat."
That sounded ridiculous because Romney never led Obama in polling averages of Ohio, and Obama was ahead or tied in all of the last 30 polls done in the state except one by Republican-leaning Rasmussen.
Conservatives began claiming the polls were wrong, that they vastly overestimated what turnout levels would be among blacks, Latinos, and young people. UnSkewedPolls.com changed the number of Democrats and Republicans in polls to show Romney leading everywhere.
You'd expect Romney's campaign to play this up publicly to maintain supporters' enthusiasm -- like when political director Rich Beeson said the Sunday before the election that Romney would win more than 300 electoral college votes.
But you don't expect them to actually believe it. But Romney, his wife, Ryan, and his wife apparently did. Crawford reports:
Romney was stoic as he talked the president, an aide said, but his wife Ann cried. Running mate Paul Ryan seemed genuinely shocked, the adviser said. Ryan's wife Janna also was shaken and cried softly.
"There's nothing worse than when you think you're going to win, and you don't," said another adviser. "It was like a sucker punch."
Their emotion was visible on their faces when they walked on stage after Romney finished his remarks, which Romney had hastily composed, knowing he had to say something.
The Atlantic Wire noted earlier in the campaign that Romney kept getting in trouble when he'd repeat memes from conservative blogs -- like the infamous 47 percent. But that they actually bought blogger denial of cold, hard numbers is surprising. Did it have an actual impact on their strategy?
A statement from Brett Doster, seems to suggest so: "The numbers in Florida show this was winnable. We thought based on our polling and range of organization that we had done what we needed to win. Obviously, we didn’t, and for that I and every other operative in Florida has a sick feeling that we left something on the table."
