Trading Update - posted by me in response to nonse
Post# of 1674
Posted On: 05/30/2016 5:26:33 PM
Trading Update - posted by me in response to nonsense I saw on iHub.
In my view it is complete nonsense for anyone to say "0001s will also be available, but getting. 0002s is guaranteed." Not only is it not guaranteed - it isn't likely either anytime soon.
The modus operandi of the convertible debt sellers are well known to anyone who has actually watched every trade over the last several months - and I mean when it was coming down from ..0006>.0002 last year as well - not just recently. I'm not going to describe all my observations here for obvious reasons.
However, way more than 400M in convertible debt sells have been made on both the ask and bid since the .0003s were left behind on the way up. 400M is not a particularly large figure - 20 days at 20M or 8 days at 50M - that is way before the momentum builds for San Diego Comic Con and any announcements regarding sales.
The convertible debt sellers appear to have a weekly, monthly or quarterly quota - it certainly isn't daily and it certainly isn't "immediate". First they try the ask and if people don't take the hint after a few days they sell small amounts 2M>9M into the bid.
There has been a 76M>81M bid at .0003 consistently for about 4 weeks now - the majority of that is from ultra-longs who wish to deny the .0003s to 1 to 5-tick flippers. The convertible debt sellers are not - in my opinion based on observations over many months - going to totally wipe out the .0003 bid and they almost certainly aren't going to do it at .0002 either. They could have sold 75M in one go anytime in the last few weeks if they wanted to and haven't. Of course that doesn't mean they definitely will not. I'm already covering both possibilities.
Only 20M has been sold so far into the .0003s - 3M on May 26 and 17M on May 27. Of that, 9M has come to me filling orders from May 3 and May 17. I'm top of the list with 2 different market makers with partial fills on significant orders. If past patterns are anything to go buy, I expect to see the .0003 bid topped up continuously by at least another 50M if the current 67M that was there at the close on Friday counts down to say 20M. All these quoted figures do not include any large AON orders that are hidden on Level 2 to retail buyers. There were multiple AON orders at .0004 - about another 20M over and above what was showing most of last week - deduced from fills versus bid.
Thereafter, ultralongs have also left bids behind at .0002 to deny them to low level flippers. In my estimation, it would take a lot more than 400M in sells to even start touching the .0002s and anyone who doesn't already have a bid in probably doesn't stand much chance. As for .0001, I think we can safely forget those unless there is an extremely unlikely disaster resulting in no significant revenue from any of the 4 distinct streams by the time people start thinking about year end selling for tax purposes in December.
If I'm wrong I'm not bothered as, the more I get at .0003 or .0002, the fewer .0004s I need to hold in my lowest price stash - along with my .0001s - to meet my profit goals above .01. That releases .0004s to be sold at leisure over the coming months in the .001>.0099 range.
However, people not yet in the large queue for .0003s might not want to pass up .0004s if they don't have enough shares to meet their profit goals. How easily people forget how difficult .0004s were to get just a few weeks ago and how few .0002s and .0003s there were on the way up.
All just my opinion but I personally don't believe that .0003s or .0002s will be that easy to get but of course there is no harm in bidding - you might just get lucky. On the other hand, there have been quite a few developments since the close on Friday and we may see some buying at .0004 this week.
$,$$$,$$$ REDG $,$$$,$$$
In my view it is complete nonsense for anyone to say "0001s will also be available, but getting. 0002s is guaranteed." Not only is it not guaranteed - it isn't likely either anytime soon.
The modus operandi of the convertible debt sellers are well known to anyone who has actually watched every trade over the last several months - and I mean when it was coming down from ..0006>.0002 last year as well - not just recently. I'm not going to describe all my observations here for obvious reasons.
However, way more than 400M in convertible debt sells have been made on both the ask and bid since the .0003s were left behind on the way up. 400M is not a particularly large figure - 20 days at 20M or 8 days at 50M - that is way before the momentum builds for San Diego Comic Con and any announcements regarding sales.
The convertible debt sellers appear to have a weekly, monthly or quarterly quota - it certainly isn't daily and it certainly isn't "immediate". First they try the ask and if people don't take the hint after a few days they sell small amounts 2M>9M into the bid.
There has been a 76M>81M bid at .0003 consistently for about 4 weeks now - the majority of that is from ultra-longs who wish to deny the .0003s to 1 to 5-tick flippers. The convertible debt sellers are not - in my opinion based on observations over many months - going to totally wipe out the .0003 bid and they almost certainly aren't going to do it at .0002 either. They could have sold 75M in one go anytime in the last few weeks if they wanted to and haven't. Of course that doesn't mean they definitely will not. I'm already covering both possibilities.
Only 20M has been sold so far into the .0003s - 3M on May 26 and 17M on May 27. Of that, 9M has come to me filling orders from May 3 and May 17. I'm top of the list with 2 different market makers with partial fills on significant orders. If past patterns are anything to go buy, I expect to see the .0003 bid topped up continuously by at least another 50M if the current 67M that was there at the close on Friday counts down to say 20M. All these quoted figures do not include any large AON orders that are hidden on Level 2 to retail buyers. There were multiple AON orders at .0004 - about another 20M over and above what was showing most of last week - deduced from fills versus bid.
Thereafter, ultralongs have also left bids behind at .0002 to deny them to low level flippers. In my estimation, it would take a lot more than 400M in sells to even start touching the .0002s and anyone who doesn't already have a bid in probably doesn't stand much chance. As for .0001, I think we can safely forget those unless there is an extremely unlikely disaster resulting in no significant revenue from any of the 4 distinct streams by the time people start thinking about year end selling for tax purposes in December.
If I'm wrong I'm not bothered as, the more I get at .0003 or .0002, the fewer .0004s I need to hold in my lowest price stash - along with my .0001s - to meet my profit goals above .01. That releases .0004s to be sold at leisure over the coming months in the .001>.0099 range.
However, people not yet in the large queue for .0003s might not want to pass up .0004s if they don't have enough shares to meet their profit goals. How easily people forget how difficult .0004s were to get just a few weeks ago and how few .0002s and .0003s there were on the way up.
All just my opinion but I personally don't believe that .0003s or .0002s will be that easy to get but of course there is no harm in bidding - you might just get lucky. On the other hand, there have been quite a few developments since the close on Friday and we may see some buying at .0004 this week.
$,$$$,$$$ REDG $,$$$,$$$
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"Per Ardua Ad Astra" - "Through Adversity To The Stars"
A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.
A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.
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