A post I made elsewhere to an ultra-long who was w
Post# of 1674
Posted On: 05/16/2016 9:01:12 PM
A post I made elsewhere to an ultra-long who was wondering what to do regarding the point at which he might start recovering funds from some of his highest price buys over the last few years. A bit more detail on my strategy but not of course all my relevant numbers - except the ones that are so good that nobody else can replicate them now if they already flipped their .0001s>.0003s.
So, as I've said previously, I probably won't be selling any of my long-term stash below .01. My bottom 55M is at an average of .000227 - total cost $12.5K - which is $10K less than I made on the last run into the .0030s. I did get 25M at .0001 - mostly by hitting the ask on a day when the bid got wiped out without my long standing orders getting filled. I had been meaning to hit the ask at .0002 for up to 50M the moment I saw the 89M counting down, but I was diverted elsewhere on the day when Penny Island grabbed most of them and I only got 5M which I did flip later because the quantity was insignificant.
Originally, the bulk of the remainder of the long-term stash were .0004s I had from when it was being driven down in 2015, but they have mostly now been replaced by .0003s that I bid for to keep them out of the hands of the usual con-pro-con $REDG flippers.
That leaves the .0004s to sell somewhere for a decent profit or make the low price stash bigger if we start to see a lot of new interest. I do not consider that there is any chance that $REDG will go below .0002 again before year end - unless the unthinkable happens and revenues can't be shown to be large before people start to think of selling for a tax loss at end-2016 - extremely unlikely in my opinion.
I have more than twice as many shares as my core stash. The most expensive are in the .0021>.0031 - a few small buys from when a .0035 breakout looked imminent but was ruined by a commentator who was influential at the time (he isn't now due to declining membership and different target price range). The bulk are in the .0004/5 range - some from the way down in 2015 - some from the way up recently - with a chunk from 2015 in the .0010>.0014 range.
My strategy is to be flexible with how the more expensive ones are sold. They can either be sold at leisure when they just go into profit by 50% > to 2000% - or in the unlikely event that doesn't happen by say November - balance a significant profit on "long-term - held over 12 months" shares with "long-term" losses from the most expensive ones to be neutral overall. I say again, I will only be considering that much later - depending on how strong the breakout above .0010 towards .0020 is.
The remainder of the short term buys under .0010 can be used to take a profit in the .0050 > .0099 range or - if shenanigans start at some point whereby a group or an individual tries blocking tactics to get cheap shares - a portion can be flipped for 3>5 ticks and the proceeds used to deny that group getting in on the bid or to give them a bloody nose on the ask so that they lose shares they didn't really want to sell so cheaply - they tend to only do that once when that happens.
So, in summary:
Keep a stash large enough for the desired profit level above .01 that has an acceptable risk reward ratio.
Only if worried about the overall investment size, balance the loss of selling the most expensive - which for almost everyone will be "long-term" - with the profit from less expensive "long-term" shares which for most people will be in the .0010>.0050 range if they are from 2014 or possibly .0010>.0015 if they are only from 2015.
Keep the shares at the next few prices up from the highest in the bottom up stash to add to the stash as "free" once further profits have been made from sales higher up.
The remainder of the holding can be used to outflip the flippers once a pattern is established on higher volume days - 50M>100M.
Hope that helps. I realize some of your prices are much higher than mine but the principle of keeping the highest number of the lowest priced shares remains paramount to reducing the risk yet having a large enough holding to make a suitably large profit for the time spent. Where you sell the rest is mainly geared towards how important getting relatively large sums of money out by selling relatively few shares is to the individual - thus not affecting the profit too much when $REDG gets to the .01>.1 range in time. Also the money taken out can be used to block flippers out of the bid at any future level or to hit "intimidation only" walls.
$REDG
So, as I've said previously, I probably won't be selling any of my long-term stash below .01. My bottom 55M is at an average of .000227 - total cost $12.5K - which is $10K less than I made on the last run into the .0030s. I did get 25M at .0001 - mostly by hitting the ask on a day when the bid got wiped out without my long standing orders getting filled. I had been meaning to hit the ask at .0002 for up to 50M the moment I saw the 89M counting down, but I was diverted elsewhere on the day when Penny Island grabbed most of them and I only got 5M which I did flip later because the quantity was insignificant.
Originally, the bulk of the remainder of the long-term stash were .0004s I had from when it was being driven down in 2015, but they have mostly now been replaced by .0003s that I bid for to keep them out of the hands of the usual con-pro-con $REDG flippers.
That leaves the .0004s to sell somewhere for a decent profit or make the low price stash bigger if we start to see a lot of new interest. I do not consider that there is any chance that $REDG will go below .0002 again before year end - unless the unthinkable happens and revenues can't be shown to be large before people start to think of selling for a tax loss at end-2016 - extremely unlikely in my opinion.
I have more than twice as many shares as my core stash. The most expensive are in the .0021>.0031 - a few small buys from when a .0035 breakout looked imminent but was ruined by a commentator who was influential at the time (he isn't now due to declining membership and different target price range). The bulk are in the .0004/5 range - some from the way down in 2015 - some from the way up recently - with a chunk from 2015 in the .0010>.0014 range.
My strategy is to be flexible with how the more expensive ones are sold. They can either be sold at leisure when they just go into profit by 50% > to 2000% - or in the unlikely event that doesn't happen by say November - balance a significant profit on "long-term - held over 12 months" shares with "long-term" losses from the most expensive ones to be neutral overall. I say again, I will only be considering that much later - depending on how strong the breakout above .0010 towards .0020 is.
The remainder of the short term buys under .0010 can be used to take a profit in the .0050 > .0099 range or - if shenanigans start at some point whereby a group or an individual tries blocking tactics to get cheap shares - a portion can be flipped for 3>5 ticks and the proceeds used to deny that group getting in on the bid or to give them a bloody nose on the ask so that they lose shares they didn't really want to sell so cheaply - they tend to only do that once when that happens.
So, in summary:
Keep a stash large enough for the desired profit level above .01 that has an acceptable risk reward ratio.
Only if worried about the overall investment size, balance the loss of selling the most expensive - which for almost everyone will be "long-term" - with the profit from less expensive "long-term" shares which for most people will be in the .0010>.0050 range if they are from 2014 or possibly .0010>.0015 if they are only from 2015.
Keep the shares at the next few prices up from the highest in the bottom up stash to add to the stash as "free" once further profits have been made from sales higher up.
The remainder of the holding can be used to outflip the flippers once a pattern is established on higher volume days - 50M>100M.
Hope that helps. I realize some of your prices are much higher than mine but the principle of keeping the highest number of the lowest priced shares remains paramount to reducing the risk yet having a large enough holding to make a suitably large profit for the time spent. Where you sell the rest is mainly geared towards how important getting relatively large sums of money out by selling relatively few shares is to the individual - thus not affecting the profit too much when $REDG gets to the .01>.1 range in time. Also the money taken out can be used to block flippers out of the bid at any future level or to hit "intimidation only" walls.
$REDG
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"Per Ardua Ad Astra" - "Through Adversity To The Stars"
A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.
A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.