$TPAC Great update from IR this morning. Bill ha
Post# of 22940
Posted On: 05/12/2016 1:58:55 PM
$TPAC Great update from IR this morning. Bill has landed a bid package of one hundred part numbers(units not yet specified) for AVIC. Bill mentioned in a recent tweet that he was optimistic that the current trip to China would yield an LOI from an AVIC group. This AVIC group, being part owner of the C919, puts us in with not only AVIC, but also the maker of the C919, another emerging aerospace player, COMAC.
The Boeing visit to the TPAC China factory is scheduled for this month. Meetings with AVIC in China set for next week. TPAC is the bidirectional bridge between AVIC and Boeing. AVIC must be sensing some sense of security in TPAC's likelihood of passing the Boeing inspection. Per the update, AVIC is a Boeing approved partner. The Tweet from Bill on May 9th stated that the LOI would be for a partnership. AVIC was not going to go through with the JV until Boeing was secured. In order for Boeing to visit TPAC's factory, TPAC must have properly submitted all of the necessary paperwork(and also pushed through the AS9100C(as the preferred and updated cert to AS9100)), which thus means that Boeing has more than likely put TPAC on Boeing's BQMS fast track. Supporting this, the final step in TPAC's NAVAIR approval was the NAVAIR visit to the factory; such should likely be the same for Boeing and their respective visit.
So now, we have a minimum of $109k in revs to post on the next quarterly. Following, for the next Q, a $250k installment of the $1M licensing agreement(paid in four quarterly installments), and payment from AVIC for the C919 production run). And for a bit of forward looking possibilities that remain of solid probability by summer's end: service level agreements, further licensing, Boeing approval post factory visit, partnership with AVIC, a new US aerospace parts distributor(Bill met with them last week), smaller production runs(less than $250k, which will not be mentioned), continuation of talks with Projen, etc.
Of other significance, TPAC Australia has been set up to serve as a reseller for NAVAIR certified parts, which will bring new jobs to Australia via the leveraging of offshore technologies, as planned for, and assisted by, the Australian govt.'s Turnbull Initiative. TPAC Australia has also been mentioned to have close ties with Bower Aero, a service provided to Emirates airlines. TPACmuse has also mentioned, on April 21, that $5M in physical cash and assets would be transferred over to TPAC within (from 4/21) what would be the next 45-90 days.
According to the recent press release, posted on the 20th of April, TPAC will be ramping up production capabilities by 40% over the following six months, given that Boeing's new bearing business was quoted at $250M. Again, we are the only NAVAIR certified bearing provider in China, and Boeing has a presence in China(as do AVIC and COMAC). Boeing's second largest footprint, aside from the US, with 27 physical locations, is in Australia, new home to TPAC , courtesy of TPAC Australia.
TPAC has posted a goal for the next 18 months of securing the other major aerospace players: Boeing, Airbus, COMAC, Embraer, Bombardier, etc. We are on track with Boeing already(though not yet finalized). Airbus has yet to be mentioned with significance. COMAC was mentioned indirectly today via the update regarding C919, as the C919 is under COMAC's name, with AVIC being partial owner, and very possibly, a partner to TPAC, which then, to land COMAC, becomes "a partner of my partner" situation, which in turn essentially yields to a situation that the third entity, or new guy(TPAC), helps AVIC with C919 parts, which helps COMAC with C919 numbers, being that we are of a lesser cost, thus standing to place TPAC in good standing with COMAC via AVIC, and also reinforcing the fact that TPAC is the bridge back and for between Boeing and AVIC, possibly also providing for both Boeing and COMAC to do business with one another.
EX-IM is in the works now. $10M doesn't seem like it would be a problem, but also does not seem like what will be needed to be constituted as adequate funding. That said, Ex-Im is still processing requests for funding greater than $10M, which tips a bit of a hat at what could be confidence in the fact that Sen Shelby is standing in the way of a lot of big business deals, as a sole roadblock, one which could very possibly be crumbled by the likes of the international big businesses and their respective legal teams, in such a way that Sen. Shelby could be hurting significant businesses within the US economy, serving as a prohibitory entity in regards to how this will also affect US foreign relations in the form of international trade. Put simply: if other countries can't do business with us, other countries are going to do business with other countries. Sen Shelby will bear the brunt of the blame if they get impatient and go elsewhere with their money.
The US Navy has an annual need for $11M in bushings, as mentioned by Bill recently. The Australian Navy, though smaller in size, needs a full retrofitting, estimated at an even greater cost than the aforementioned $11M. I'm sure we intent to capture a portion of that, or it would not have been mentioned. Also of note, we have a secondary product for maritime.
Without omission, it appears the float has increased significantly. While at first glance, that is a negative thing. Bill/IR has mentioned that there has been no insider selling, aside from a share count numbering 3M and change by an associate. That leaves question as to what the increase was for. If not mistaken, some partnerships use swapping of shares and/or assets as security to make sure that as one entity acquired the goods of another to be taken as their own, in exchange for the other's own, then the assets that have traded hands have equal value to the new partner as they do to the original provider, thus giving the new partner every reason to want to see the original provider profit and grow in value, as they also stand to benefit; and vise versa. If there is an optimism that AVIC will generate an LOI for partnership, 1B shares in AVIC's hands, in exchange for AVIC shares of equal value(possibly used to assist in the MRVB mentioned by FR before funding is available) could stand to be of a profitable nature. Also, if the 1B shares are being used for a business deal, they main contain a clause in which the recipient may only sell a certain numerical value within a given period of time, with a possible fixed-floor, such as .01.
And while the price action is subsisting within a range, the accumulation line has begun turning up again, signalling that we are not in a state of ongoing divestment, but rather, loading in preface to a future move, be it technical and/or fundamental. RSI on the daily is looking ice cold at 37, and is nearly hitting an oversold condition, that being at 30. While high teen's are holding, we could see a manipulated move down to .0015, in order to create a short term triple bottom at that number, which would also be a 100% retracing of the most recent move from .0015-.0031. A tap at .0015 would also be a bounce of the lower bollinger band on the daily, currently at .0015. Other possibilities upon a quick initial glance are the following. .0018 is the 200MA. The 200MA could act as support. When the last two taps at .0015 occurred, the 200MA was at .0016. And though it is bearish that the 50MA is moving down, it is still a solid sign that the 200MA is moving up. This may be a positive set up for a bullish move, provided that the 50MA does not cross below the 200MA. Lots of traders look for stocks in which the 50MA is broken bullishly and held. If the 200MA is acting as support and the 50MA is within close range, not to mention that we are close to oversold, that would be a nice setup, given that it is only going to take a move of several triple zero ticks to cross back over the 50MA, thus lending us both the 50MA and 200MA as support; another scenario likely to lead to an increase in accumulation.
Already mentioned, the 200MA is at .0018. Last time we touched .0015, the 200MA was at .0016. Why bring it up again? Piercing one tick below the 200MA(just like last time) is good for a cheap shake, and fools a lot of people putting in stop losses based on the daily alone. Once manipulated down one tick, the daily does not look good for a moment in time, but that is not the case for the weekly, as the 50MA has acted as support there, and is currently at .0017, one tick below the 200MA support on the daily.
Both charts are looking ready and willing to move, and if anyone of these significant fundamental catalysts go through while the charts are within range of the bottom of their current respective channels, we should be off and running, attracting both technical and fundamental players alike.
All in all, it really appears as if we are building one heck of a foundation here, even if has yet to reflect in the day to day pps. It is still a strong opinion of mine that we are on track to a very solid remainder of the year.
The Boeing visit to the TPAC China factory is scheduled for this month. Meetings with AVIC in China set for next week. TPAC is the bidirectional bridge between AVIC and Boeing. AVIC must be sensing some sense of security in TPAC's likelihood of passing the Boeing inspection. Per the update, AVIC is a Boeing approved partner. The Tweet from Bill on May 9th stated that the LOI would be for a partnership. AVIC was not going to go through with the JV until Boeing was secured. In order for Boeing to visit TPAC's factory, TPAC must have properly submitted all of the necessary paperwork(and also pushed through the AS9100C(as the preferred and updated cert to AS9100)), which thus means that Boeing has more than likely put TPAC on Boeing's BQMS fast track. Supporting this, the final step in TPAC's NAVAIR approval was the NAVAIR visit to the factory; such should likely be the same for Boeing and their respective visit.
So now, we have a minimum of $109k in revs to post on the next quarterly. Following, for the next Q, a $250k installment of the $1M licensing agreement(paid in four quarterly installments), and payment from AVIC for the C919 production run). And for a bit of forward looking possibilities that remain of solid probability by summer's end: service level agreements, further licensing, Boeing approval post factory visit, partnership with AVIC, a new US aerospace parts distributor(Bill met with them last week), smaller production runs(less than $250k, which will not be mentioned), continuation of talks with Projen, etc.
Of other significance, TPAC Australia has been set up to serve as a reseller for NAVAIR certified parts, which will bring new jobs to Australia via the leveraging of offshore technologies, as planned for, and assisted by, the Australian govt.'s Turnbull Initiative. TPAC Australia has also been mentioned to have close ties with Bower Aero, a service provided to Emirates airlines. TPACmuse has also mentioned, on April 21, that $5M in physical cash and assets would be transferred over to TPAC within (from 4/21) what would be the next 45-90 days.
According to the recent press release, posted on the 20th of April, TPAC will be ramping up production capabilities by 40% over the following six months, given that Boeing's new bearing business was quoted at $250M. Again, we are the only NAVAIR certified bearing provider in China, and Boeing has a presence in China(as do AVIC and COMAC). Boeing's second largest footprint, aside from the US, with 27 physical locations, is in Australia, new home to TPAC , courtesy of TPAC Australia.
TPAC has posted a goal for the next 18 months of securing the other major aerospace players: Boeing, Airbus, COMAC, Embraer, Bombardier, etc. We are on track with Boeing already(though not yet finalized). Airbus has yet to be mentioned with significance. COMAC was mentioned indirectly today via the update regarding C919, as the C919 is under COMAC's name, with AVIC being partial owner, and very possibly, a partner to TPAC, which then, to land COMAC, becomes "a partner of my partner" situation, which in turn essentially yields to a situation that the third entity, or new guy(TPAC), helps AVIC with C919 parts, which helps COMAC with C919 numbers, being that we are of a lesser cost, thus standing to place TPAC in good standing with COMAC via AVIC, and also reinforcing the fact that TPAC is the bridge back and for between Boeing and AVIC, possibly also providing for both Boeing and COMAC to do business with one another.
EX-IM is in the works now. $10M doesn't seem like it would be a problem, but also does not seem like what will be needed to be constituted as adequate funding. That said, Ex-Im is still processing requests for funding greater than $10M, which tips a bit of a hat at what could be confidence in the fact that Sen Shelby is standing in the way of a lot of big business deals, as a sole roadblock, one which could very possibly be crumbled by the likes of the international big businesses and their respective legal teams, in such a way that Sen. Shelby could be hurting significant businesses within the US economy, serving as a prohibitory entity in regards to how this will also affect US foreign relations in the form of international trade. Put simply: if other countries can't do business with us, other countries are going to do business with other countries. Sen Shelby will bear the brunt of the blame if they get impatient and go elsewhere with their money.
The US Navy has an annual need for $11M in bushings, as mentioned by Bill recently. The Australian Navy, though smaller in size, needs a full retrofitting, estimated at an even greater cost than the aforementioned $11M. I'm sure we intent to capture a portion of that, or it would not have been mentioned. Also of note, we have a secondary product for maritime.
Without omission, it appears the float has increased significantly. While at first glance, that is a negative thing. Bill/IR has mentioned that there has been no insider selling, aside from a share count numbering 3M and change by an associate. That leaves question as to what the increase was for. If not mistaken, some partnerships use swapping of shares and/or assets as security to make sure that as one entity acquired the goods of another to be taken as their own, in exchange for the other's own, then the assets that have traded hands have equal value to the new partner as they do to the original provider, thus giving the new partner every reason to want to see the original provider profit and grow in value, as they also stand to benefit; and vise versa. If there is an optimism that AVIC will generate an LOI for partnership, 1B shares in AVIC's hands, in exchange for AVIC shares of equal value(possibly used to assist in the MRVB mentioned by FR before funding is available) could stand to be of a profitable nature. Also, if the 1B shares are being used for a business deal, they main contain a clause in which the recipient may only sell a certain numerical value within a given period of time, with a possible fixed-floor, such as .01.
And while the price action is subsisting within a range, the accumulation line has begun turning up again, signalling that we are not in a state of ongoing divestment, but rather, loading in preface to a future move, be it technical and/or fundamental. RSI on the daily is looking ice cold at 37, and is nearly hitting an oversold condition, that being at 30. While high teen's are holding, we could see a manipulated move down to .0015, in order to create a short term triple bottom at that number, which would also be a 100% retracing of the most recent move from .0015-.0031. A tap at .0015 would also be a bounce of the lower bollinger band on the daily, currently at .0015. Other possibilities upon a quick initial glance are the following. .0018 is the 200MA. The 200MA could act as support. When the last two taps at .0015 occurred, the 200MA was at .0016. And though it is bearish that the 50MA is moving down, it is still a solid sign that the 200MA is moving up. This may be a positive set up for a bullish move, provided that the 50MA does not cross below the 200MA. Lots of traders look for stocks in which the 50MA is broken bullishly and held. If the 200MA is acting as support and the 50MA is within close range, not to mention that we are close to oversold, that would be a nice setup, given that it is only going to take a move of several triple zero ticks to cross back over the 50MA, thus lending us both the 50MA and 200MA as support; another scenario likely to lead to an increase in accumulation.
Already mentioned, the 200MA is at .0018. Last time we touched .0015, the 200MA was at .0016. Why bring it up again? Piercing one tick below the 200MA(just like last time) is good for a cheap shake, and fools a lot of people putting in stop losses based on the daily alone. Once manipulated down one tick, the daily does not look good for a moment in time, but that is not the case for the weekly, as the 50MA has acted as support there, and is currently at .0017, one tick below the 200MA support on the daily.
Both charts are looking ready and willing to move, and if anyone of these significant fundamental catalysts go through while the charts are within range of the bottom of their current respective channels, we should be off and running, attracting both technical and fundamental players alike.
All in all, it really appears as if we are building one heck of a foundation here, even if has yet to reflect in the day to day pps. It is still a strong opinion of mine that we are on track to a very solid remainder of the year.
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