im waiting for some feedback on the series of court docs from a friend who is a business law attorney and try to get some direction one way or the other. right now - i think it is 50-50. on one side - KBM plays hardball as it doesnt want to have a big target painted on its back that it is an easy target to come after and have their entire model unravel.
on the flip side, the longer it draws out and more that becomes available, public opinion turns and brings intense scrutiny on the company and every investor/company that dealt with their seemingly usury practices starts to wonder if they can take a shot at them (not to mention more coming to light for SEC/Attorney generals who have "free" research being provided to them). in this regard, it behooves them to make a quick and advantageous settlement (to HJOE) with very strict NDAs to prevent them or other entities from "taking a chance". NDAs let the losing company (unless it is really a win-win) save face as they can put out their own PR anyway they want to with respect to resolving the dispute amicably and favorable to both parties (again - to discourage other suits).
one has to think to a small degree that the 13MM offer from NITE that keeps growing on the ASK is tied to this decision. there is no one at this point that would be holding that many shares that isnt in this for the long haul. at this point, vast majority of long term, large shareholders understand the waiting game, have bought into the filing delays, and understand the impact of this being settled or going to trial and further delays. if you were long with 13MM shares - you would have to have bought into the SMS model being real and growing, revenues increasing, and the company moving forward in parallel with the KBM trial. even if you WERE looking to liquidate and move on - why show your hand...?
so - what is NITE trying to accomplish by that enormous wall which is larger than most of the trading days in the past couple of months? why does it keep increasing? are they trying to systematic close short positions? accumulate for clients? etc?
i continue to buy. NITE had 10K at 14 and i put an order for 200K. it filled immediately and the 10K offer remained. next fill took it out and then the 13MM offer appeared at 15. i think when it comes down - this is going to move hard and fast and catch many former holders off guard as a lot of the float seems to be locked up long term. if this is settled, i have to imagine it will be cash only at best to KBM from HJOE (no shares) and the impetus will be provided for it to run. however, if more investors feel a settlement is reached, they will be adding speculatively ahead of any assumed announcement tryign to get in before the run. there will be a heavy mix of buying from long term holders and traders and the runs will be swift both up and down.
on the flip side, the longer it draws out and more that becomes available, public opinion turns and brings intense scrutiny on the company and every investor/company that dealt with their seemingly usury practices starts to wonder if they can take a shot at them (not to mention more coming to light for SEC/Attorney generals who have "free" research being provided to them). in this regard, it behooves them to make a quick and advantageous settlement (to HJOE) with very strict NDAs to prevent them or other entities from "taking a chance". NDAs let the losing company (unless it is really a win-win) save face as they can put out their own PR anyway they want to with respect to resolving the dispute amicably and favorable to both parties (again - to discourage other suits).
one has to think to a small degree that the 13MM offer from NITE that keeps growing on the ASK is tied to this decision. there is no one at this point that would be holding that many shares that isnt in this for the long haul. at this point, vast majority of long term, large shareholders understand the waiting game, have bought into the filing delays, and understand the impact of this being settled or going to trial and further delays. if you were long with 13MM shares - you would have to have bought into the SMS model being real and growing, revenues increasing, and the company moving forward in parallel with the KBM trial. even if you WERE looking to liquidate and move on - why show your hand...?
so - what is NITE trying to accomplish by that enormous wall which is larger than most of the trading days in the past couple of months? why does it keep increasing? are they trying to systematic close short positions? accumulate for clients? etc?
i continue to buy. NITE had 10K at 14 and i put an order for 200K. it filled immediately and the 10K offer remained. next fill took it out and then the 13MM offer appeared at 15. i think when it comes down - this is going to move hard and fast and catch many former holders off guard as a lot of the float seems to be locked up long term. if this is settled, i have to imagine it will be cash only at best to KBM from HJOE (no shares) and the impetus will be provided for it to run. however, if more investors feel a settlement is reached, they will be adding speculatively ahead of any assumed announcement tryign to get in before the run. there will be a heavy mix of buying from long term holders and traders and the runs will be swift both up and down.
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