Electoral College Ratings Changes National Pol
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Posted On: 05/06/2016 7:54:03 PM
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Electoral College Ratings Changes
National Politics|By Amy Walter, David Wasserman and Charlie Cook, May 5, 2016
New Electoral Scorecard Ratings in 13 States
This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate - women, millennials, independents and Latinos - make him the initial November underdog.
As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats.
Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.
With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic - enough for a majority.
Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence.
Nevada, for example, has proven hostile to Republicans in the last two presidential elections thanks to a rapidly growing non-white electorate. However, some early polling shows Trump performing better with whites there than previous GOP nominees. Still, we are skeptical Trump can ultimately win there.
Click here to see the full Electoral College voting ratings.
http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard
Electoral College Ratings Changes
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