Some of both, I expect. same mix as under Bush, ju

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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

by Bill McBride on 10/05/2014 11:54:00 AM


By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the September employment report.

Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a different comparison might be to look at the percentage change.

Of course the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now. But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.

First, here is a table for private sector jobs. The top two private sector terms were both under President Clinton. Currently Obama's 2nd term is on pace for the third best term for these Presidents.

Reagan's 2nd term saw about the same job growth as during Carter's term. Note: There was a severe recession at the beginning of Reagan's first term (when Volcker raised rates to slow inflation) and a recession near the end of Carter's term (gas prices increased sharply and there was an oil embargo).

Term

Private Sector
Jobs Added (000s)

Carter 9,041
Reagan 1 5,360
Reagan 2 9,357
GHW Bush 1,510
Clinton 1 10,885
Clinton 2 10,070
GW Bush 1 -841
GW Bush 2 379
Obama 1 1,998
Obama 2 4,1291
120 months into 2nd term: 9,910 pace.


The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).

However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama took office (down 668,000 jobs). These job losses have mostly been at the state and local level, but more recently at the Federal level. This has been a significant drag on overall employment.

And a table for public sector jobs. Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term, and increased the most during Reagan's 2nd term.

Term

Public Sector
Jobs Added (000s)

Carter 1,304
Reagan 1 -24
Reagan 2 1,438
GHW Bush 1,127
Clinton 1 692
Clinton 2 1,242
GW Bush 1 900
GW Bush 2 844
Obama 1 -713
Obama 2 451
120 months into 2nd term, 108 pace

Looking forward, I expect the economy to continue to expand for the next few years, so I don't expect a sharp decline in private employment as happened at the end of Mr. Bush's 2nd term (In 2005 and 2006 I was warning of a coming recession due to the bursting of the housing bubble).

A big question is if the public sector layoffs have ended. The cutbacks are clearly over at the state and local levels in the aggregate, and it appears cutbacks at the Federal level have slowed. Right now I'm expecting some increase in public employment during Obama's 2nd term, but nothing like what happened during Reagan's second term.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/10/pub...YPmWr6t.99

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/10/pub...YPmWr6t.99

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