Actual voter #'s and required delegate info:What d
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Posted On: 04/27/2016 7:28:00 PM
Actual voter #'s and required delegate info:What do the turnout numbers say about the 2016 race?
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After the first four voting contests of 2016, a clear trend is showing up in the numbers: compared with 2008, Democratic turnout is down, while Republicans are hitting record turnout highs.
In South Carolina's Democratic primary, for example, where Hillary Clinton scored a big victory Saturday night, just over [b]367,000 people turned out to vote--a 30-percent decrease from 2008, the last contested Democratic primary, when 532,000 Democrats voted[/b].
Just a week earlier, when Republicans in South Carolina went to the polls, a whopping 738,000 turned out, over 20 percent more than the 603,000 Republicans who voted in 2012 in the GOP's last contested primary.
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The picture is similar across the board. In Nevada's caucuses, 84,000 Democrats turned out to vote--a nearly 30-percent drop from 2008, when 118,000 Democrats caucused. In New Hampshire, just over 250,000 Democrats turned out, compared with 288,000 in 2008 (a 13-percent drop). In the Iowa caucuses, turnout fell from about 240,000 to just over 171,000 (a decline of just under 30 percent).
On the Republican side, it's the opposite: turnout in the first four contests has been record-breaking. In New Hampshire, GOP turnoutwas up about 14 percent over 2012 (284,000 people voted this year, compared to 248,000 in 2012).
In Iowa, more than 186,000 Republicans caucused, a more than 50-percent increase over 2012's 121,000 GOP voters. In Nevada, a record-breaking 75,000 Republicans caucused, compared with just 33,000 in 2012--in fact, more people cast a vote for Donald Trump -- just over 34,000 -- than voted in the entire 2012 caucuses.
Why is this happening?
Strong turnout is typically a sign of how enthusiastic and engaged a party's voters are, a point Republicans are driving home as they tout the GOP's record turnout. And generally, a party's primary or caucus turnout is higher when its voters are engaged in the process and the race is competitive--both of which are true on the Republican side.
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More candidates in the race means more candidates for voters to choose from and get excited about, and more resources directed at turning their party's voters out. With more than a dozen candidates in the GOP race in Iowa, for example, each campaign had field staffers on the ground and people whose jobs it was to make sure they turned out every supporter they could.
In a memo circulated to reporters about 2016 turnout thus far, the Democratic National Committee made reference to that disparity in the number of candidates: "In Iowa TWO Democrats turned out nearly as many caucus-goers as ELEVEN Republicans," the memo said, noting similar figures for Nevada and New Hampshire.
The Republican side this year also has Donald Trump, whose polarizing campaign has drawn headlines and brought new people into the fold of presidential primary politics. Plus, while many people show up to the polls to vote for a specific candidate, others come to vote against someone. "There's no question about it: Donald Trump is the main cause of high Republican turnout," Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said recently. "Love him or hate him, he's the center of attention."
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After the first four voting contests of 2016, a clear trend is showing up in the numbers: compared with 2008, Democratic turnout is down, while Republicans are hitting record turnout highs.
In South Carolina's Democratic primary, for example, where Hillary Clinton scored a big victory Saturday night, just over [b]367,000 people turned out to vote--a 30-percent decrease from 2008, the last contested Democratic primary, when 532,000 Democrats voted[/b].
Just a week earlier, when Republicans in South Carolina went to the polls, a whopping 738,000 turned out, over 20 percent more than the 603,000 Republicans who voted in 2012 in the GOP's last contested primary.
Poll: Hillary Clinton up big in key Super Tuesday states
Poll: Donald Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia; Ted Cruz hanging on in Texas
The picture is similar across the board. In Nevada's caucuses, 84,000 Democrats turned out to vote--a nearly 30-percent drop from 2008, when 118,000 Democrats caucused. In New Hampshire, just over 250,000 Democrats turned out, compared with 288,000 in 2008 (a 13-percent drop). In the Iowa caucuses, turnout fell from about 240,000 to just over 171,000 (a decline of just under 30 percent).
On the Republican side, it's the opposite: turnout in the first four contests has been record-breaking. In New Hampshire, GOP turnoutwas up about 14 percent over 2012 (284,000 people voted this year, compared to 248,000 in 2012).
In Iowa, more than 186,000 Republicans caucused, a more than 50-percent increase over 2012's 121,000 GOP voters. In Nevada, a record-breaking 75,000 Republicans caucused, compared with just 33,000 in 2012--in fact, more people cast a vote for Donald Trump -- just over 34,000 -- than voted in the entire 2012 caucuses.
Why is this happening?
Strong turnout is typically a sign of how enthusiastic and engaged a party's voters are, a point Republicans are driving home as they tout the GOP's record turnout. And generally, a party's primary or caucus turnout is higher when its voters are engaged in the process and the race is competitive--both of which are true on the Republican side.
Play VIDEO
Are Cruz and Rubio late on attacking Donald Trump?
More candidates in the race means more candidates for voters to choose from and get excited about, and more resources directed at turning their party's voters out. With more than a dozen candidates in the GOP race in Iowa, for example, each campaign had field staffers on the ground and people whose jobs it was to make sure they turned out every supporter they could.
In a memo circulated to reporters about 2016 turnout thus far, the Democratic National Committee made reference to that disparity in the number of candidates: "In Iowa TWO Democrats turned out nearly as many caucus-goers as ELEVEN Republicans," the memo said, noting similar figures for Nevada and New Hampshire.
The Republican side this year also has Donald Trump, whose polarizing campaign has drawn headlines and brought new people into the fold of presidential primary politics. Plus, while many people show up to the polls to vote for a specific candidate, others come to vote against someone. "There's no question about it: Donald Trump is the main cause of high Republican turnout," Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said recently. "Love him or hate him, he's the center of attention."
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