We will have to see if the employer mandate comes

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We will have to see if the employer mandate comes into play here. if so...full time employment will suffer a bit in my opinion. To what scale...minor(hopefully).

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Regardless of out it plays out in your scenarios, there is a continued argument in favor of 'untethering' health insurance from employment.

U.S business's would be the beneficiaries an enormous de facto tax cut, would become more competitive with foreign companies similarly untethered.

It's worth debating. Theoretically the expanded pool of ACA enrollees would drive premiums, co-pays and deductibles down, 'cause, just a sh*t load more people in the 'pool'.