price, short interest, weak vs strong hands:
weak vs strong hands is all dependent on trade horizon and whether one classifies themselves as a trader or short/long term investor. if a trader - one should have sold in the 30s on the last one. if an investor - one should have "strong hands" and use this opportunity to increase holdings or not even look at the price, let alone message boards, for another couple of months.
the question on liquidity is viable. however, that is what creates volatility and wild swings. most no here are probably short term investors at best and more than likely - swing traders even though they may consider themselves investors. after the last run to $0.007 - how many are thinking "I am going to get out on the next run like that"..? many are. which is why the price will NOT go that high on the next run nor will there BE a next run like that until there is something specific newsworthy to bring in a new round of investors and/or capital from existing long term investors. that is the mechanics of the market and the allocation and dispersion of risk/capital to make markets influence and reward the risk takers and limit the returns of the risk intolerant. as long as it is legal trading - both are viable and one should carefully consider their personality and risk tolerance to decide where they fall. i have posted on this extensively in the past.
while it may not be as exciting to watch or daydream - the lack of news/updates does help limit volatility and systematically move hands from traders (short term weak hands) to investors (long term strong hands) while bouncing shares around other new short term traders/speculators in the process. again - just market mechanics.
but determining which camp you are in and if you are being "naive" for being a "strong hand" - look at the last week or so daily short #s:
20160330|TPAC|8870518|0|23931146|O
20160329|TPAC|13711302|0|17930001|O
20160328|TPAC|6766309|0|13654809|O
20160324|TPAC|4009576|0|9536252|O
20160323|TPAC|5205190|0|12393172|O
20160322|TPAC|5267511|0|13396219|O
20160321|TPAC|3901782|0|10307222|O
20160318|TPAC|5388160|0|18075750|O
20160317|TPAC|7370016|0|31264240|O
those are some rather significant percentages. part of that is due to the move up off the lows in the 20s. part of that is playing defense against a current short position by doubling down and creating selling pressure. however, the last time the short numbers started getting this out of balance - we made a major move (last long run). this time - it is staging with no "news" so to speak. in a more fluid, "perfect" market, this can be effectively modeled through Trend Analysis (TA) and shows up as buy and sells with moving averages, Bollinger Bands, etc. however, when one understands how these models work/created and then takes into consideration the outside influences (and disproportionate influence) such as toxic lenders, shady MMs, trading groups working in concert to manipulate price/volume (usually in concert with shady MMs), they one gets a better idea how a rising short volume going into what should be a strong news period (or one that will generate buying enthusiasm) can be a catalyst for that growth and or a means to hammer the price down and "shake out" weak hands/short term traders that have tight stop losses to mitigate losses.
when looking at the trend since the stock bottomed in low trips, the trend is decidedly up with higher lows and higher highs. the higher volume has happened on the way up and the higher short volumes have happened at the higher peaks and before major runs. this makes sense as the MMs start seeing buying pressure and have to find shares to cover existing shorts or continue to short on the way up knowing there will eventually be a cooling off period where hopefully they can mitigate their losses on the increasing shorting.
most of this is "noise"if one is truly a long term investor based on the long term prospects/business strategy of the company. if you are more concerned about what the price will be in Sept/Oct of this year or next year than at 3:50PM every day or what it is doing on a Friday - then you are probably a long term investor and shouldnt worry about these fluctuations - unless you are looking to increase your position. As long as the fundamentals (OS) continues to go down and not up - the performance of the company (if strategy is sound) will drive results and then stock price.
weak vs strong hands is all dependent on trade horizon and whether one classifies themselves as a trader or short/long term investor. if a trader - one should have sold in the 30s on the last one. if an investor - one should have "strong hands" and use this opportunity to increase holdings or not even look at the price, let alone message boards, for another couple of months.
the question on liquidity is viable. however, that is what creates volatility and wild swings. most no here are probably short term investors at best and more than likely - swing traders even though they may consider themselves investors. after the last run to $0.007 - how many are thinking "I am going to get out on the next run like that"..? many are. which is why the price will NOT go that high on the next run nor will there BE a next run like that until there is something specific newsworthy to bring in a new round of investors and/or capital from existing long term investors. that is the mechanics of the market and the allocation and dispersion of risk/capital to make markets influence and reward the risk takers and limit the returns of the risk intolerant. as long as it is legal trading - both are viable and one should carefully consider their personality and risk tolerance to decide where they fall. i have posted on this extensively in the past.
while it may not be as exciting to watch or daydream - the lack of news/updates does help limit volatility and systematically move hands from traders (short term weak hands) to investors (long term strong hands) while bouncing shares around other new short term traders/speculators in the process. again - just market mechanics.
but determining which camp you are in and if you are being "naive" for being a "strong hand" - look at the last week or so daily short #s:
20160330|TPAC|8870518|0|23931146|O
20160329|TPAC|13711302|0|17930001|O
20160328|TPAC|6766309|0|13654809|O
20160324|TPAC|4009576|0|9536252|O
20160323|TPAC|5205190|0|12393172|O
20160322|TPAC|5267511|0|13396219|O
20160321|TPAC|3901782|0|10307222|O
20160318|TPAC|5388160|0|18075750|O
20160317|TPAC|7370016|0|31264240|O
those are some rather significant percentages. part of that is due to the move up off the lows in the 20s. part of that is playing defense against a current short position by doubling down and creating selling pressure. however, the last time the short numbers started getting this out of balance - we made a major move (last long run). this time - it is staging with no "news" so to speak. in a more fluid, "perfect" market, this can be effectively modeled through Trend Analysis (TA) and shows up as buy and sells with moving averages, Bollinger Bands, etc. however, when one understands how these models work/created and then takes into consideration the outside influences (and disproportionate influence) such as toxic lenders, shady MMs, trading groups working in concert to manipulate price/volume (usually in concert with shady MMs), they one gets a better idea how a rising short volume going into what should be a strong news period (or one that will generate buying enthusiasm) can be a catalyst for that growth and or a means to hammer the price down and "shake out" weak hands/short term traders that have tight stop losses to mitigate losses.
when looking at the trend since the stock bottomed in low trips, the trend is decidedly up with higher lows and higher highs. the higher volume has happened on the way up and the higher short volumes have happened at the higher peaks and before major runs. this makes sense as the MMs start seeing buying pressure and have to find shares to cover existing shorts or continue to short on the way up knowing there will eventually be a cooling off period where hopefully they can mitigate their losses on the increasing shorting.
most of this is "noise"if one is truly a long term investor based on the long term prospects/business strategy of the company. if you are more concerned about what the price will be in Sept/Oct of this year or next year than at 3:50PM every day or what it is doing on a Friday - then you are probably a long term investor and shouldnt worry about these fluctuations - unless you are looking to increase your position. As long as the fundamentals (OS) continues to go down and not up - the performance of the company (if strategy is sound) will drive results and then stock price.
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