You make it more complicated than it is. The trend
Post# of 65623
This much I can tell you, when Obama was in the 40's Republicans never failed to pound those numbers.
If he stays above 50 then the underlying factors cited will have remained favorable. If that happens then the guy calling for 'change' has the harder job, particularly if people don't view him as credible.
Quote:
Obama's approval is naturally split along partisan lines, with 87 percent of Democrats supporting his performance, an increase of 6 points from the beginning of 2016. Among Republicans, just 11 percent gave favorable marks to Obama, slightly down from the GOP average to date.
While Obama's approval is higher than that of President George W. Bush at a comparable time in office, it is lower than that of his most immediate Democratic predecessor. In March 2000, 63 percent of Americans surveyed by Gallup said they approved of Bill Clinton's job performance. Bush, meanwhile, carried a 32 percent approval rating in March 2008.
Obama's approval rating with 10 months to go in office is roughly the same as Ronald Reagan's in March 1988 (51 percent).
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/barack-...z44AettZzm
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