On my occasional journeys into the slime of other
Post# of 72446
Posted On: 02/20/2016 9:07:55 AM
Re: scottsmith #18815
On my occasional journeys into the slime of other message boards, a favorite technique of bashers is to start an argument about how bad things are going to get for share price WHEN a doomsday event happens. This scares newbies and weak hands. This is called basing an argument on a fallacious premise.
I see no point in arguing about how far a stock's share price "will" fall "when" a drug fails, when:
1) there is no evidence of drug failure of any of CTIX's 4 applications that are in clinical trials;
2) we have no idea when ANY of those 4 drugs will release data, so
3) we have no idea of what CTIX's share price will be, in the unlikely event that a drug is disappointing.
In other words, there is a big difference in what happens to a company if one drug trial fails when there have been positive test results from a blockbuster drug in its pipeline, than what happens when a company with less promising drugs with NO clinical trial successes has such an event.
How can anyone try to speculate on something that is completely unknown at this point? How is this useful?
If someone owns shares at an average price of, for sake of argument, 1.085 (today's closing price) and the stock runs up to 5 or higher on good news from some other drug, even if the stock is cut by 40% on news of a trial failure (like big company MDVN), how badly is that shareholder hurt, given that the shareholder still has more than 150% profit on the position?
By the way, MDVN recovered from that tankage to more than double from its problems, ran up to 70 and is now on the downhill track again. But, people who bought 4 years ago and held, and didn't sell any at the peak of 70-ish, can't be TOO unhappy with having "only" 30 as the current share price. And hopefully they took their basis off on the run up so it's free money.
I see no point in arguing about how far a stock's share price "will" fall "when" a drug fails, when:
1) there is no evidence of drug failure of any of CTIX's 4 applications that are in clinical trials;
2) we have no idea when ANY of those 4 drugs will release data, so
3) we have no idea of what CTIX's share price will be, in the unlikely event that a drug is disappointing.
In other words, there is a big difference in what happens to a company if one drug trial fails when there have been positive test results from a blockbuster drug in its pipeline, than what happens when a company with less promising drugs with NO clinical trial successes has such an event.
How can anyone try to speculate on something that is completely unknown at this point? How is this useful?
If someone owns shares at an average price of, for sake of argument, 1.085 (today's closing price) and the stock runs up to 5 or higher on good news from some other drug, even if the stock is cut by 40% on news of a trial failure (like big company MDVN), how badly is that shareholder hurt, given that the shareholder still has more than 150% profit on the position?
By the way, MDVN recovered from that tankage to more than double from its problems, ran up to 70 and is now on the downhill track again. But, people who bought 4 years ago and held, and didn't sell any at the peak of 70-ish, can't be TOO unhappy with having "only" 30 as the current share price. And hopefully they took their basis off on the run up so it's free money.
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