I can't comment on the likelihood of the technolog
Post# of 3601
Posted On: 02/12/2016 6:39:08 PM
I can't comment on the likelihood of the technology succeeding, but from the limited amount of reading I've done so far, they have the attention of big players. That's great, but far from PPAP approval and production volumes. Anything that simplifies the mfg process, reduces cost and improves fuel economy will attract oem's. I'm just not sold on the emissions part as they haven't said if their changes meet tier 4 requirements without the need for an egr system.
Their change is significant/revolutionary. Because of this, widespread acceptance is difficult to achieve and no one wants to be the first for fear of failure. Warranty is a huge issue with the OEMs. We're talking about brand name companies - they have a reputation to maintain. A change to the engine like this will take 1000's of hours of OEM testing, from test cells to field tests to select end user trials. All of this takes years in development and it sounds like they are at a prototype stage where testing is done at coates, not the oem. For that reason, I believe the real revenues and profits are still far away. That's not to say that the stock can't get some bumps due to developments, but I just don't see a lot of money being made in the near to mid term.
Just my opinion, but I have some insight to Cummins, as we were trying to implement a variable flow pump to reduce hp consumption for years and that still hasn't materialized - 5+ years into the program.
Regards,
kbulldog.
Their change is significant/revolutionary. Because of this, widespread acceptance is difficult to achieve and no one wants to be the first for fear of failure. Warranty is a huge issue with the OEMs. We're talking about brand name companies - they have a reputation to maintain. A change to the engine like this will take 1000's of hours of OEM testing, from test cells to field tests to select end user trials. All of this takes years in development and it sounds like they are at a prototype stage where testing is done at coates, not the oem. For that reason, I believe the real revenues and profits are still far away. That's not to say that the stock can't get some bumps due to developments, but I just don't see a lot of money being made in the near to mid term.
Just my opinion, but I have some insight to Cummins, as we were trying to implement a variable flow pump to reduce hp consumption for years and that still hasn't materialized - 5+ years into the program.
Regards,
kbulldog.
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