After reviewing the float and the losses attributed to David Einhorn's worst investing year since 1996 and the insured catastrophe run-off from 2008-2011 that is now being recognized, I've come to the conclusion that those losses reflected a decrease in book value of -$331.82M. With the current state of his investment portfolio and his newly gained activist board inclusions, as well as an acquisition opportunity this year in a significant holding, I believe it's very possible for those losses to be recapitalized on the balance sheet as soon as December 2016.
Because of this outlook, I believe the current fair value for GLRE is $32.59 per share with a realization of value within the next 12-24 months which provides for a 69.28% aggregate gain as of today's closing price of $19.25 per share.
I believe the 2008-2011 catastrophe combined with his worst portfolio performance was an anomaly, especially considering that he's a value investor and does not measure success in months, but rather in years.
The fear of Wallstreet has definitely provided an opportunity.
Book value has increased an average annual rate of 5.88%, and net investments have grown 18.50% per year over the last 8.9 years.
"Our primary financial goal is to increase the long-term value in fully diluted adjusted book value per share." - 2015 Q3
(0)
(0)
Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (GLRE) Stock Research Links
"The more numerous any assembly may be, of whatever characters composed, the greater is known to be the ascendancy of passion over reason." - Federalist no. 58