UNIQUE...INDEED.......When it comes to such an opp
Post# of 497
Posted On: 02/06/2016 5:58:23 PM
UNIQUE...INDEED.......When it comes to such an opportunity there are different categories that can be addressed. 1) Fundamentals, 2)Technicals, 3) Knowledge about the sector/business/management/retailers sentiment/pps/followers/trading characteristics/short sales/naked shorting etc. We have discussed all these extensively on other boards, here, in emails, with the CEO over the phone or in conference calls and so forth and to summarize that, it would really need a 10 page publication with Introduction, Business Method, Results, Discussion, References. So I will not address it but try to answer your and all our question on the intuitional level.
Just to pinch 1) through 3):
Technicals: Bottom confirmed over and over, chartists can analyze, but a golden cross will be reached around ~0.3 and, thus, during the next climb. If sustained gaps to 0.45 and then right into the 0.6s-0.8s. The pps has been dormant and is destined to a major outbreak
Fundamentals: Expecting 100M annual revenue, revenue enough to cover obligations, low O/S, super low float, warrant conversion (most of which at 0.45 and 0.75) over time will bring money and would bring us, even if excercised by these lenders (that are predominantly long term investors) over the next three years, to the still nice O/S of some 200-300M shares, close to the miniscule AS of 300M (btw. imaging what would happen to the trading if we were going to be maxed out in an expanding mid cap profitable international company), the fair market value right now is already now a pps of $2-3. Here are the already nice Q3 2015 numbers (wait what happens this year): Revenues of USD 15.40 million and now growing big, Net Earnings of USD 9.23 million, and Earnings per Share (EPS) of USD 0.09. Gross margins widened from 14.41% to 44.86% compared to the same period last year, operating (EBITDA) margins now -10.75% from -99.97%."
Knowledge: New and previously extremely successful "NASDAQ" management managed astounding turnaround including debt consolidation, expansion,international presence in just 10 months. A lot of pre R/S retailers suffered and left; there are no sellers at this pps but a lot of longs (which also includes the CEO who recently purchased on the open market) that have averaged down and hold huge "semi-locked" positions of 100K-1M shares. From the spring there are massive naked short positions left to be covered as well as legitimate short positions by national MMs are existing that all need to be covered (thus the short-squeeze anticipation) at some point when the pps reliably appreciates (probably in the gap over 45 cents). Lots of followers but no buying interest now (thus current MM boxing in the 0.2s) and mild interest, due to worries, during pre-Q-ER spikes, which were immediately abused by MMs, in the high 0.3s/low 0.4s. (Q2 vs Q3 15). Now the weak hands are out, management has legal councel observing and reporting to subdue such a repetition, financials are staging a pps appreciation, professional investors are getting interested.
Now my intuition tells me that the trading characteristics will finally change as early as of the 10K release by end of march and no later than Q1 release ~May 15th. I also see the management doing more (including promotions, advertising, PR,personally buying more shares, guidance) but not as much as some people hope for. I think the pps will after the 10k not retreat into the 0.2s again but get stuck in the 0.4s for a while, thus confidence will grow, and then the pps and once freed climb rather quickly to below a dollar this year. Depending on the strenght of regulations (smaller unprepared companies might need life support; ECIG is prepared), demand for Vapestick and FIN kits, possibly expansions of the VIP kiosk model, regulations in the mid east e.g. egypt allowing ECIG to enter rapidly through Mansour group, and so forth anything can happen: Worst case scenario: In three years we are on the OTC and the share price lingers around a dollar or two or three but the business is ready for the desired eventual uplisting which could be accomplished through a runup on uplisting news or with a small (3:1 or 5:1 or so) RS. Best case scenario in three years: we are on the OTC with a share price of $10 and uplisting to NYSE or Nasdaq follows with a share price of $10 that climbs steadily. Also possible an early buyout for ~5 times the annual revenue. On top of that there is also a slight chance that 5-10 years from now this has appreciated beyond our current imagination (e.g. $50-200/share).
I leave a lot out for now.......so these are just my T2T2 thoughts. I am a scientist, not a professional in this field, not a chartist, follow ECIG for 13months closely/invest for 10 months, I am not married to ECIG and in general I am a rather skeptical instead of enthusiastic investor [never gambled
]
Just to pinch 1) through 3):
Technicals: Bottom confirmed over and over, chartists can analyze, but a golden cross will be reached around ~0.3 and, thus, during the next climb. If sustained gaps to 0.45 and then right into the 0.6s-0.8s. The pps has been dormant and is destined to a major outbreak
Fundamentals: Expecting 100M annual revenue, revenue enough to cover obligations, low O/S, super low float, warrant conversion (most of which at 0.45 and 0.75) over time will bring money and would bring us, even if excercised by these lenders (that are predominantly long term investors) over the next three years, to the still nice O/S of some 200-300M shares, close to the miniscule AS of 300M (btw. imaging what would happen to the trading if we were going to be maxed out in an expanding mid cap profitable international company), the fair market value right now is already now a pps of $2-3. Here are the already nice Q3 2015 numbers (wait what happens this year): Revenues of USD 15.40 million and now growing big, Net Earnings of USD 9.23 million, and Earnings per Share (EPS) of USD 0.09. Gross margins widened from 14.41% to 44.86% compared to the same period last year, operating (EBITDA) margins now -10.75% from -99.97%."
Knowledge: New and previously extremely successful "NASDAQ" management managed astounding turnaround including debt consolidation, expansion,international presence in just 10 months. A lot of pre R/S retailers suffered and left; there are no sellers at this pps but a lot of longs (which also includes the CEO who recently purchased on the open market) that have averaged down and hold huge "semi-locked" positions of 100K-1M shares. From the spring there are massive naked short positions left to be covered as well as legitimate short positions by national MMs are existing that all need to be covered (thus the short-squeeze anticipation) at some point when the pps reliably appreciates (probably in the gap over 45 cents). Lots of followers but no buying interest now (thus current MM boxing in the 0.2s) and mild interest, due to worries, during pre-Q-ER spikes, which were immediately abused by MMs, in the high 0.3s/low 0.4s. (Q2 vs Q3 15). Now the weak hands are out, management has legal councel observing and reporting to subdue such a repetition, financials are staging a pps appreciation, professional investors are getting interested.
Now my intuition tells me that the trading characteristics will finally change as early as of the 10K release by end of march and no later than Q1 release ~May 15th. I also see the management doing more (including promotions, advertising, PR,personally buying more shares, guidance) but not as much as some people hope for. I think the pps will after the 10k not retreat into the 0.2s again but get stuck in the 0.4s for a while, thus confidence will grow, and then the pps and once freed climb rather quickly to below a dollar this year. Depending on the strenght of regulations (smaller unprepared companies might need life support; ECIG is prepared), demand for Vapestick and FIN kits, possibly expansions of the VIP kiosk model, regulations in the mid east e.g. egypt allowing ECIG to enter rapidly through Mansour group, and so forth anything can happen: Worst case scenario: In three years we are on the OTC and the share price lingers around a dollar or two or three but the business is ready for the desired eventual uplisting which could be accomplished through a runup on uplisting news or with a small (3:1 or 5:1 or so) RS. Best case scenario in three years: we are on the OTC with a share price of $10 and uplisting to NYSE or Nasdaq follows with a share price of $10 that climbs steadily. Also possible an early buyout for ~5 times the annual revenue. On top of that there is also a slight chance that 5-10 years from now this has appreciated beyond our current imagination (e.g. $50-200/share).
I leave a lot out for now.......so these are just my T2T2 thoughts. I am a scientist, not a professional in this field, not a chartist, follow ECIG for 13months closely/invest for 10 months, I am not married to ECIG and in general I am a rather skeptical instead of enthusiastic investor [never gambled
]
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