PPHM Recent activities 12/22/2015 01:58:20 $PPHM
* * $PPHM Video Chart 12-21-15 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
Masshysteria, Thank you so much for this very thorough explanation. Here are a couple of my thoughts.
Quote:
Viral mechanism is much better understood, is easier to prove, and has significantly lower competitive pressure than Oncology products. Cycles for efficacy assessment are short, and one can get strong signals in in-vitro and pre-clinical that can build up confidence quite quickly.
I think this is why PPHM started with viral clinical trials, but found that bavi-alone may be a little slow for some of the fast acting virals. However much preclinical data is available and some showing great adaptive immune response, ie vaccine type responses, from deadly viruses. So GILD……..?
Quote:
That is a sweet spot for GILD and they have a first class ability to discover the pathways and means/methods to get relevant activity out of Bavi in Viral indications. I don’t have a strong personal view about Bavi’s efficacy in Viral – mostly due to lack of actionable data and my lacking familiarity with the intricacies of dealing with fast progressing viral disease with Bavi. If it can be done, effectively, GILD will make it work.
I think Bavi will give GILD their cornerstone molecule to enter the oncology arena but they should also highly value it for the viral arena wherein they have the most of their expertise.
Their large and growing market cap is based on Viral (and a narrow viral target audience, at that)....add broad spectrum bavi to that ....Add that to the broad spectrum oncology value that bavi brings and you have an astronomical value!
ohh, we forgot imaging.....oh, and veterinary......oh, and crops.....oh, and ad infinitem.
Or people could just stop eating sugar and carbs and eat fat like they were meant to and rid 99% of all disease.
But that is too hard for the fat fucks in America.
Def enjoy reading your posts for all the info plus for making me think in sometimes different ways as to what might happen.
Just a thought--Let me wish you a Merry Peaceful X-Mas and a Healthy New Year,
Andy C.
L OHHH L
You're killing me with that one!
Best,
MH
Hopefully shoot upward and outward as opposed to shutting down.
We still have a lot of Real Estate to work with...just need the food and water.
Thanks again for your terrific insight.
In the PPHMcentic view...I hope new ways of looking at things has BAVITUXIMAB and the APP on top.
wook
Wow MH thank you! Patience, the deal is coming, as I have been saying far to much risk for big pharma x to let y take bavituximab.
Partnership when we least expect it!
like 102 year old guys in viagra commercials? i'd shut that down....
Wook - opinion only...
there are a multitude of tools being developed to assess both genetic fit (compatibility) with a drug (responder vs. non responder) as well as understanding cellular level impact.
I see this (presently) directly impacting how long it takes to file/approve, and what data combinations make for a compelling case.
I'm not seeing the application of 'equivalence' yet and probably not for a while. However, by definition, through broadening the definition of acceptable signals, the burden become more flexible and less rigid.
I do think that 2 to 3 years from now - the ability to tailor medicines to one's biological/genetic fingerprint, will become more of a scientific and commercial reality relative to the infancy stage it's in today.
All I know is that I thank my lucky stars for not being born decades earlier, and having access to all this innovative medicine. We have such advances in health and medicine available and coming over the next 10-20 years, that we will likely have to think about how to shut things down some 50 years from now. If you know what I mean...
Best,
MH
AZN building capacity in CO.
Quote:
Finally, this is where a partner, provided they come on board 9-12 months before going commercial, can be of tremendous value
wook
Haven't bought enough at 0.95 but already sold at 1.30... and have no more to buy at 1.13-1.15 but just follow the Dart....
WOW MH, always impressive thought process...I have to ask...do you you think new technologies in biotech may allow some to actually see what is going on with a biologic without having actual human data...ie...in vivo ex vivo microspheres?
I also wonder...isn't the real value in the targeting and binding?
PS is PS is PS
The function of PS is/has been being "vastly" researched...the Targeting and binding is the patent...BAVITUXIMAB is the first molecule built on the APP.
Whoever can bind and control the cellular radio that is Phosphatidylserine wins.
Great post(s).
wook
@1.30, I still make $$$ but rather prefer 13.00
At $50, i'll sell 50%... At $100, 20% then just smile.
Thank you swg_tdr - this is at the heart of advanced preparation for commercialization but there are a few pathways one can take.
Costs for standing up a biotech manufacturing space can run from the low tens of millions to well over $150M. This includes full manufacturing through fill/finish, storage logistics and other incidentals.
Construction of a line, in an existing and fit structure (i.e. no building to build and no major structural/environmental remediation), can take on the low side of 12 months to the high side of 24+ months.
Funding this type of endeavor is costly and ATM type funding, or bulk sale (same prices as ATM) can hit hard on outstanding shares. That said - it is not a cost one can hold back from spending as capacity is a must for both approval as well as the ability to turn science into sales.
There are other options for anyone in a bind, including the ability to carry out a 'technology transfer' where augmenting a Toll Manufacturer into the supply chain enables one to leverage someone else's manufacturing space and establish additional capacity. That allows for a somewhat faster expansion, and certainly cheaper (short term) way of standing up capacity.
Where Peregrine goes is hard to tell - but my gut says they have the ability to divert capacity used to support customers into Bavi manufacturing given sufficient time. It is also likely they will use a Toll Manufacturing (third party) option if timing for commercialization requires fast action that does not allow for reasonable time frame for a construction project.
Finally, this is where a partner, provided they come on board 9-12 months before going commercial, can be of tremendous value. BPs typically run at 70% to 85% manufacturing capacity, and have large staff to handle expedited projects. A timely partner will take the financial burden of dilution away and be able to drive faster outcomes to support manufacturing expansion.
Here's to hoping Peregrine leadership loses sleep at night due to lack of Bavi manufacturing capacity based on sales projections!
Best,
MH
Unfortunately, I suspect the vast majority of people on this board have been shareholders for a long time. For them, they are still a long way from being in the black and since they do not want to sell at a loss, it has and will continue to be dead money for some time to come. A close at 1.30 tomorrow would be nice but I suspect that is just wishful thinking.
great info.... my only huge beef right now is the amount of dilution at less than paid in capital per share to keep the lights on. they can do better than that imo...
So, the "dead money" people who bought shares of PPHM for under a dollar last month just turned a 25% profit. That's 12 times the return of a 10 year US Treasury.
Of course, if they were the kind of traders who talk down Peregrine to get a low purchase price, I do not wish them well.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Thank you James for your response and, as always, challenging and critical thinking that you often share. I’ve been enjoying your discussions regarding GILD and general buyout – which in many ways drive some of my own exploration into what is and what could be.
I took a shot at responding to your questions with a mix of fact and opinion (hopefully not fiction ; )
Quote:
At this point in time it would seem things are most definitely "clicking into place" - but now, as Jake recently mentioned, we need to accelerate the process to really take advantage of the breadth and depth of the IP franchise now becoming more evident almost daily - so would you concur that NOW is the time to bring in that Big Dollars partner and/or acquirer? And if so, do you think such a party has had sufficient time to complete their DD such that they would concur with your statement above that "the numbers thrown around are not at all overstated, and may be understated" as well as with your statements below?
{just as a quick and relevant reminder from the last CC - where Worsley referenced the "copious" amounts of data now available and SK termed the opportunities for Bavi to be "vast."}
That point on the continuum between scientific evidence and proof is the elusive sweet spot for striking a deal.
First – framing the assumptions:
•
* * $PPHM Video Chart 12-21-15 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
Masshysteria, Thank you so much for this very thorough explanation. Here are a couple of my thoughts.
Quote:
Viral mechanism is much better understood, is easier to prove, and has significantly lower competitive pressure than Oncology products. Cycles for efficacy assessment are short, and one can get strong signals in in-vitro and pre-clinical that can build up confidence quite quickly.
I think this is why PPHM started with viral clinical trials, but found that bavi-alone may be a little slow for some of the fast acting virals. However much preclinical data is available and some showing great adaptive immune response, ie vaccine type responses, from deadly viruses. So GILD……..?
Quote:
That is a sweet spot for GILD and they have a first class ability to discover the pathways and means/methods to get relevant activity out of Bavi in Viral indications. I don’t have a strong personal view about Bavi’s efficacy in Viral – mostly due to lack of actionable data and my lacking familiarity with the intricacies of dealing with fast progressing viral disease with Bavi. If it can be done, effectively, GILD will make it work.
I think Bavi will give GILD their cornerstone molecule to enter the oncology arena but they should also highly value it for the viral arena wherein they have the most of their expertise.
Their large and growing market cap is based on Viral (and a narrow viral target audience, at that)....add broad spectrum bavi to that ....Add that to the broad spectrum oncology value that bavi brings and you have an astronomical value!
ohh, we forgot imaging.....oh, and veterinary......oh, and crops.....oh, and ad infinitem.
Or people could just stop eating sugar and carbs and eat fat like they were meant to and rid 99% of all disease.
But that is too hard for the fat fucks in America.
Def enjoy reading your posts for all the info plus for making me think in sometimes different ways as to what might happen.
Just a thought--Let me wish you a Merry Peaceful X-Mas and a Healthy New Year,
Andy C.
L OHHH L
You're killing me with that one!
Best,
MH
Hopefully shoot upward and outward as opposed to shutting down.
We still have a lot of Real Estate to work with...just need the food and water.
Thanks again for your terrific insight.
In the PPHMcentic view...I hope new ways of looking at things has BAVITUXIMAB and the APP on top.
wook
Wow MH thank you! Patience, the deal is coming, as I have been saying far to much risk for big pharma x to let y take bavituximab.
Partnership when we least expect it!
like 102 year old guys in viagra commercials? i'd shut that down....
Wook - opinion only...
there are a multitude of tools being developed to assess both genetic fit (compatibility) with a drug (responder vs. non responder) as well as understanding cellular level impact.
I see this (presently) directly impacting how long it takes to file/approve, and what data combinations make for a compelling case.
I'm not seeing the application of 'equivalence' yet and probably not for a while. However, by definition, through broadening the definition of acceptable signals, the burden become more flexible and less rigid.
I do think that 2 to 3 years from now - the ability to tailor medicines to one's biological/genetic fingerprint, will become more of a scientific and commercial reality relative to the infancy stage it's in today.
All I know is that I thank my lucky stars for not being born decades earlier, and having access to all this innovative medicine. We have such advances in health and medicine available and coming over the next 10-20 years, that we will likely have to think about how to shut things down some 50 years from now. If you know what I mean...
Best,
MH
AZN building capacity in CO.
Quote:
Finally, this is where a partner, provided they come on board 9-12 months before going commercial, can be of tremendous value
wook
Haven't bought enough at 0.95 but already sold at 1.30... and have no more to buy at 1.13-1.15 but just follow the Dart....
WOW MH, always impressive thought process...I have to ask...do you you think new technologies in biotech may allow some to actually see what is going on with a biologic without having actual human data...ie...in vivo ex vivo microspheres?
I also wonder...isn't the real value in the targeting and binding?
PS is PS is PS
The function of PS is/has been being "vastly" researched...the Targeting and binding is the patent...BAVITUXIMAB is the first molecule built on the APP.
Whoever can bind and control the cellular radio that is Phosphatidylserine wins.
Great post(s).
wook
@1.30, I still make $$$ but rather prefer 13.00
At $50, i'll sell 50%... At $100, 20% then just smile.
Thank you swg_tdr - this is at the heart of advanced preparation for commercialization but there are a few pathways one can take.
Costs for standing up a biotech manufacturing space can run from the low tens of millions to well over $150M. This includes full manufacturing through fill/finish, storage logistics and other incidentals.
Construction of a line, in an existing and fit structure (i.e. no building to build and no major structural/environmental remediation), can take on the low side of 12 months to the high side of 24+ months.
Funding this type of endeavor is costly and ATM type funding, or bulk sale (same prices as ATM) can hit hard on outstanding shares. That said - it is not a cost one can hold back from spending as capacity is a must for both approval as well as the ability to turn science into sales.
There are other options for anyone in a bind, including the ability to carry out a 'technology transfer' where augmenting a Toll Manufacturer into the supply chain enables one to leverage someone else's manufacturing space and establish additional capacity. That allows for a somewhat faster expansion, and certainly cheaper (short term) way of standing up capacity.
Where Peregrine goes is hard to tell - but my gut says they have the ability to divert capacity used to support customers into Bavi manufacturing given sufficient time. It is also likely they will use a Toll Manufacturing (third party) option if timing for commercialization requires fast action that does not allow for reasonable time frame for a construction project.
Finally, this is where a partner, provided they come on board 9-12 months before going commercial, can be of tremendous value. BPs typically run at 70% to 85% manufacturing capacity, and have large staff to handle expedited projects. A timely partner will take the financial burden of dilution away and be able to drive faster outcomes to support manufacturing expansion.
Here's to hoping Peregrine leadership loses sleep at night due to lack of Bavi manufacturing capacity based on sales projections!
Best,
MH
Unfortunately, I suspect the vast majority of people on this board have been shareholders for a long time. For them, they are still a long way from being in the black and since they do not want to sell at a loss, it has and will continue to be dead money for some time to come. A close at 1.30 tomorrow would be nice but I suspect that is just wishful thinking.
great info.... my only huge beef right now is the amount of dilution at less than paid in capital per share to keep the lights on. they can do better than that imo...
So, the "dead money" people who bought shares of PPHM for under a dollar last month just turned a 25% profit. That's 12 times the return of a 10 year US Treasury.
Of course, if they were the kind of traders who talk down Peregrine to get a low purchase price, I do not wish them well.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Thank you James for your response and, as always, challenging and critical thinking that you often share. I’ve been enjoying your discussions regarding GILD and general buyout – which in many ways drive some of my own exploration into what is and what could be.
I took a shot at responding to your questions with a mix of fact and opinion (hopefully not fiction ; )
Quote:
At this point in time it would seem things are most definitely "clicking into place" - but now, as Jake recently mentioned, we need to accelerate the process to really take advantage of the breadth and depth of the IP franchise now becoming more evident almost daily - so would you concur that NOW is the time to bring in that Big Dollars partner and/or acquirer? And if so, do you think such a party has had sufficient time to complete their DD such that they would concur with your statement above that "the numbers thrown around are not at all overstated, and may be understated" as well as with your statements below?
{just as a quick and relevant reminder from the last CC - where Worsley referenced the "copious" amounts of data now available and SK termed the opportunities for Bavi to be "vast."}
That point on the continuum between scientific evidence and proof is the elusive sweet spot for striking a deal.
First – framing the assumptions:
•
