I'm with you Drano. Here's a quick discussion I h

I'm with you Drano. Here's a quick discussion I had this morning. Many mentioned here but mainly CTIX and AVXL. Also still seeing sunsplat on the ctix board, relentless misrepresentation trying to implant BS.

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The manipulation is unreal. 123tom mentioned a few and a group I hang with that primarily shorts stocks (I'll explain more in a bit) reminded me of a couple others, UQM and MDBX. Stocks that get a MAJOR spike and then crash right back down. We've seen some others just this year. I don't short, but it can be done the right way without torturing or being malicious ~ the way it was meant to be. My other group is BP Rising, they simply peg the resistance and cover on the support. Not being greedy like some of the hedge funds or groups like Adam F. Helps me too sometimes, when they start covering and support is confirmed, I can go long again with a bit more confidence. Most of their plays are out of my price range or I hardly seem to have the funds available at the right time.

AVXL wasn't much different as far as the spike went, a lot of hype driving it so many knew the peak wouldn't be sustainable. I like and I use the same strategy gfp927z (what is that ID short for?)...

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But there is a way to own bio stocks for the longer haul, instead of merely trading them. You can have small positions in a group of favorites and just let them ride for as long as their fundamentals continue to look good. That's how successful private equity outfits like the Baker Bros do it. Another approach is to have a core position and a trading position. For myself I'm content to just follow them out of general interest and for the entertainment value. If I decide to actually invest money again, the strict limit will be $1000 per stock. With this approach you won't get rich, but you'll stay out of trouble.

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I have been consistently using both. Light positions in a stock and then loading back up when the chart says to or well ahead of a catalyst and then taking some off around the event or pulling a stop loss if need be. MSTX has been in a sideways range for some time but also has a couple nice catalysts, one soon (by mid December?) and then more on their EPIC study 1q 2016. Took some back off around .43 since the technical weakened but looking to add back on it. ATNM CBAY SYN CTIX CRBP I've been doing the same thing. Took some profits from AVXL and loaded CBAY just in time for it to pull back on me, reminding me not to be so quick to follow the intraday when I'm looking for a longer term swing.
Speaking of intradays, AVXL, 2 days in a row screwed me over, the only thing that saved me from adding back in was the lack of confirmation. Crowin had it right both times on the AVXL thread, I don't follow him and think he may be more of a short but I do try and keep an open mind and not just ignore other ideas. I'm just another rock in the pond so if I see something that might give me an edge I'll take heed and at least be a bit more cautious. I was looking for the 200 dma to hold up better but the low float adds to this volatility. The intraday was showing signs of forming a falling wedge reversal from the daily. My idea was to combine the daily and throw in the intraday, I also mentioned in my post that we'd need to see confirmation. My wedge fell apart shortly after I posted. Is it just shorts? It could be, I didn't see any insider selling. Though I am missing a little over 300K shares post split from the form 5 annual statement and my calculations of the form 4's pre split. Too many posts to go through to see if anyone else addressed that or even caught it. When buyers are staying away or longs are just sitting tight, whatever action there is causing so much volatility but the overall trend is manipulated down because (IMO) hedge funds are whacking out the bid. I think there is institutional interest and whoever it is doing what they can to get whatever they can as low as they can. We'll find out in Jan early Feb when the new numbers come out. Like CTIX, we should see the interest continue so money will be watching. Just need to see if Anavex has something up their sleeve to spark things in the right direction. I'm putting AVXL on early pincher radar soon but it needs to set up a bit more. Divergence still looks a bit weak. Starting to head into the oversolds.
I do like your strategy Gfp927z, have some AVXL in the $4's and looking to load up.
News on ATNM as well so may be able to play that into adding on AVXL. BTW, AVXL on S Ttwits now has over 2013 followers.

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gfp927z Wednesday, 11/18/15 09:58:04 AM
Re: BooDog post# 1048
Post # of 1049


BooDog, With AVXL they're using the usual shorting techniques like forcing down the bid, but other than the brief Feuerstein article there wasn't a huge accompanying hit piece of the type that happened with CTIX, where they not only trash in great detail the science, but also the CEO and other management's dubious history. The CTIX hit job took months to plan and was a major production, in contrast to AVXL which looks like a one time 'short and move on' opportunity for the short crowd.

AVXL just got way ahead of itself on the upside, having a $500 mil market cap based on a tiny open label Phase 2a. The CEO Missling is a straight arrow compared to Erlich of CTIX, so there wasn't the required ammo for a full fledged long term assault on the stock, in contrast to CTIX. So I'm figuring the AVXL shorts will cover and move on to their next prey and leave the stock alone to gradually recover.

The clinical evidence of efficacy is very early, but AVXL is a potential lotto stock due to the extreme lack of effective Alzheimer's treatments - there are none. The ACHase inhibitors like Aricept, and the NMDA inhibitor Namenda, are basically worthless, but have racked up many billions in sales only because there is no other treatment available. As long as that's the case, interest in AVXL will return. According to Dr. Tracy of NeuroPerspective, AVXL's approach (Sigma-1 receptor) is getting renewed interest in the pharma world. So AVXL has potential as a high risk longer term lotto stock, with a solid CEO in Missling and a $50 mil financing arrangement in place.

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