Before anyone freaks out about OS, I would recomme
Post# of 11040
Posted On: 09/29/2015 11:04:08 PM
Before anyone freaks out about OS, I would recommend reading this post as an alternate point of view, not as investment advice. If yesterday or today there are 902m shares outstanding, and on 8/24 there were 593m then during this period OS increased 309m. With the 1B shares traded between August 24-August 26, we know that 309m were “sells”. By adding the short positions settled from 8/24-26, there were 257m shares covered or “buys”. That leaves a remaining 743m shares traded since the 309m were additional. I’m just showing the relationship between buying and selling pressure. Therefore, so far we have 52m more sells than buys.
Just like other of my previous calculations, for price to end up going down at a time where dividends where reinvested I would say selling pressure was 60% to 40% buy pressure. Out of 743m then 297m were buys (retail and company buys perhaps) and 446m sells (minus 52m since that were calculated previously, leaving 394m sells). Therefore an approximate 97m additional in approximate overall higher selling pressure (or newly created short positions) must be account for the price movement to move as it occurred. Note: I’m assuming the 257m shares that were covered were opened during the same period as rationally they would not do it knowing dividend was coming, not enough volume (as this amount of new shorts would have reduced price significantly before then) and because it is likely shorts were created with new stock issuances or conversions. Therefore, maximum retail sales were approximately 199m. So whether its 97m or 199m in selling from retail (profit taking), it would appear numbers are pretty close. Take away the 92m naked shorts (known because on 8/31 “real” shorts were 35k) that have covered since the halt and numbers are even closer. This also assumes those naked shorts were opened during the period.
Why all this matters: From August 19-24, 127m short shares covered/settled. If you believe COR was debited because they were shorting, then approximate shares short outstanding are 363m-127m = 236m (NSS may have occurred simultaneously while real shorts were being covered). Should large holders not be selling, NSS would indeed be larger than what I think retail owns. If you think COR debiting was a mistake because they, there are no naked shorts/real shorts based on my numbers.
Current value of shares: I’m not convinced that the OS is entirely accurate as the company has bought back roughly 100m shares that have yet to be retired IMHO, and its possible the 363m from COR situation are there as well (but then again it also depends as to whether you believe a NSS position exists). If .27 is estimated, I don't see why this isn't still a great investment IMHO.
It will be interesting to see what this week and ones to come bring!
Just like other of my previous calculations, for price to end up going down at a time where dividends where reinvested I would say selling pressure was 60% to 40% buy pressure. Out of 743m then 297m were buys (retail and company buys perhaps) and 446m sells (minus 52m since that were calculated previously, leaving 394m sells). Therefore an approximate 97m additional in approximate overall higher selling pressure (or newly created short positions) must be account for the price movement to move as it occurred. Note: I’m assuming the 257m shares that were covered were opened during the same period as rationally they would not do it knowing dividend was coming, not enough volume (as this amount of new shorts would have reduced price significantly before then) and because it is likely shorts were created with new stock issuances or conversions. Therefore, maximum retail sales were approximately 199m. So whether its 97m or 199m in selling from retail (profit taking), it would appear numbers are pretty close. Take away the 92m naked shorts (known because on 8/31 “real” shorts were 35k) that have covered since the halt and numbers are even closer. This also assumes those naked shorts were opened during the period.
Why all this matters: From August 19-24, 127m short shares covered/settled. If you believe COR was debited because they were shorting, then approximate shares short outstanding are 363m-127m = 236m (NSS may have occurred simultaneously while real shorts were being covered). Should large holders not be selling, NSS would indeed be larger than what I think retail owns. If you think COR debiting was a mistake because they, there are no naked shorts/real shorts based on my numbers.
Current value of shares: I’m not convinced that the OS is entirely accurate as the company has bought back roughly 100m shares that have yet to be retired IMHO, and its possible the 363m from COR situation are there as well (but then again it also depends as to whether you believe a NSS position exists). If .27 is estimated, I don't see why this isn't still a great investment IMHO.
It will be interesting to see what this week and ones to come bring!
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PLEASE READ IF YOU READ MY POSTS
I invested in Calissio Resources Group because I considered the financial statements warranted an investment. For every reader here that has been paying attention to my posts, please note the following:
1) I am not licensed to give investment advice. Everything expressed here is an opinion of my own for discussion purposes.
2) The only thing I know about the upcoming merger is that typically they are good for investors. A premium is typically offered when companies go private from what I understand. I certainly was and still am an investor before this announcement was made.
3) Finally, regarding the current OS, while there is lots of conjecture, I must rely on the only available information out there which has been presented in PRs. Therefore, OS as of the last PR was 242m. Consequently, I don't believe there is reason to believe I am a majority holder, despite recent purchases, without making a large degree of assumptions.
If anyone is wondering why I am posting this, it is because I want to make sure no one misinterprets my posts or considers I have any intent on the board other than to share potential ideas/speculate on possibilities.
I invested in Calissio Resources Group because I considered the financial statements warranted an investment. For every reader here that has been paying attention to my posts, please note the following:
1) I am not licensed to give investment advice. Everything expressed here is an opinion of my own for discussion purposes.
2) The only thing I know about the upcoming merger is that typically they are good for investors. A premium is typically offered when companies go private from what I understand. I certainly was and still am an investor before this announcement was made.
3) Finally, regarding the current OS, while there is lots of conjecture, I must rely on the only available information out there which has been presented in PRs. Therefore, OS as of the last PR was 242m. Consequently, I don't believe there is reason to believe I am a majority holder, despite recent purchases, without making a large degree of assumptions.
If anyone is wondering why I am posting this, it is because I want to make sure no one misinterprets my posts or considers I have any intent on the board other than to share potential ideas/speculate on possibilities.