Updated GSL profit projections - minimum $8.7M net
Post# of 1674
Posted On: 08/20/2015 9:56:00 AM
Updated GSL profit projections - minimum $8.7M net per year
Copied from elsewhere - produced by a long term shareholder - I agree with his assumptions and figures based on positive confirmation of parameters by the CEO in the video shareholder update and in response to specific questions on Facebook:
"Here is a simplified financial projection based on new information from the video and the main Facebook page.
I was working out some more complicated methods of analysis when Benny responded to my question with "18 puts us into profit. But remove 20% for commissions and factoring etc on anything over 18 for net as a good rule of thumb." (18 ad pages). This simplifies everything quite a bit for us.
From the video:
1) Average CPM is approximately 35
2) Max ad pages is at 40 pages
3) Circulation is now 500,000 weekly for one year, and then it goes up to 1 million a week
Simply....
If ad pages are completely filled...
(0.80)*(35*500)*(40-18)= $308,000 per week NET PROFIT
This equals $16,016,000 NET PROFIT per year. (P/E is based on annual profit)
If ads pages are at 30 (I'm making a small assumption they will easily attain 30+ given that they are at 18 now and Benny thinks they will fill easily)...
(0.80)*(35*500)*(30-18)= $168,000 per week NET PROFIT
This equals $8,736,000 NET PROFIT per year.
So what does this mean for the stock price? Well...
There are many factors that go into valuing a stock, such as, overall market factors, growth rate of the company, size of the company, future growth potential, sector the business operates in, etc.
I will say however, that across the board, profitable companies seem to bottom out around 10 P/E. You can see some large companies right now at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 P/E. The S&P 500 average is somewhere between 15 and 20 right now if I'm not mistaken. You factor in the ultra growth prospects of REDG and I think a large P/E is warranted.
However, for the purposes of giving a low ball estimate or a floor if you'd like to think of it that way...
10*16 million = 160 million market cap = $0.04 price per share (at 4 billion o/s)
10*9 million = 90 million market cap = $0.0225 price per share (at 4 billion o/s)
Personally, I'm using the number 12 million profit a year according to my personal expectations. This turns out to be:
10*12= 120 million market cap = $0.03 price per share (at 4 billion o/s)
...and like I said, we have big growth prospects, so I could see anything between 0.02 and 0.20. I think the most likely scenario is the 0.05 to 0.10 range in the next 8 months.
Note: Because the circulation will double after one year and investors will be anticipating the numbers roughly doubling then, you can give an extra boost to pps projections.
As long as Nov 4th launches, ads fill well, and further dilution is limited, then I think we are golden from this point forward. And don't forget, GSL is only the foundation upon which REDG will be built. Like Benny said, ad sales are great, but they aren't the end game.
Oh...and no dilution means charting will return to the page"
Copied from elsewhere - produced by a long term shareholder - I agree with his assumptions and figures based on positive confirmation of parameters by the CEO in the video shareholder update and in response to specific questions on Facebook:
"Here is a simplified financial projection based on new information from the video and the main Facebook page.
I was working out some more complicated methods of analysis when Benny responded to my question with "18 puts us into profit. But remove 20% for commissions and factoring etc on anything over 18 for net as a good rule of thumb." (18 ad pages). This simplifies everything quite a bit for us.
From the video:
1) Average CPM is approximately 35
2) Max ad pages is at 40 pages
3) Circulation is now 500,000 weekly for one year, and then it goes up to 1 million a week
Simply....
If ad pages are completely filled...
(0.80)*(35*500)*(40-18)= $308,000 per week NET PROFIT
This equals $16,016,000 NET PROFIT per year. (P/E is based on annual profit)
If ads pages are at 30 (I'm making a small assumption they will easily attain 30+ given that they are at 18 now and Benny thinks they will fill easily)...
(0.80)*(35*500)*(30-18)= $168,000 per week NET PROFIT
This equals $8,736,000 NET PROFIT per year.
So what does this mean for the stock price? Well...
There are many factors that go into valuing a stock, such as, overall market factors, growth rate of the company, size of the company, future growth potential, sector the business operates in, etc.
I will say however, that across the board, profitable companies seem to bottom out around 10 P/E. You can see some large companies right now at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 P/E. The S&P 500 average is somewhere between 15 and 20 right now if I'm not mistaken. You factor in the ultra growth prospects of REDG and I think a large P/E is warranted.
However, for the purposes of giving a low ball estimate or a floor if you'd like to think of it that way...
10*16 million = 160 million market cap = $0.04 price per share (at 4 billion o/s)
10*9 million = 90 million market cap = $0.0225 price per share (at 4 billion o/s)
Personally, I'm using the number 12 million profit a year according to my personal expectations. This turns out to be:
10*12= 120 million market cap = $0.03 price per share (at 4 billion o/s)
...and like I said, we have big growth prospects, so I could see anything between 0.02 and 0.20. I think the most likely scenario is the 0.05 to 0.10 range in the next 8 months.
Note: Because the circulation will double after one year and investors will be anticipating the numbers roughly doubling then, you can give an extra boost to pps projections.
As long as Nov 4th launches, ads fill well, and further dilution is limited, then I think we are golden from this point forward. And don't forget, GSL is only the foundation upon which REDG will be built. Like Benny said, ad sales are great, but they aren't the end game.
Oh...and no dilution means charting will return to the page"
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A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.
A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.
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