Very good questions, Pipa. I cannot say how the stock would be affected at different stages of certification, but the process is not a single "certified" to go - but, rather, it is a series of approvals to move to the next stage in the process. That being said, allow me to partially explain the process, and maybe give an opinion or two.
The current stage is the most difficult - particularly in this, the newest of certification procedures - the one which requires the applicant to achieve an acceptable level of agreement with the certification team's view of how Baltia's manuals and systems ensure regulatory compliance.
Once the certification team gives the green light for Baltia to move into the next stage, then Baltia's manual system can be applied to the tasks at hand.
Example - the company can then begin to maintain the aircraft under the company's newly approved maintenance program - that is, after the maintenance personnel have gone through the approved requisite training program, inspectors have been qualified & trained, etc etc -
Example - the flight crewmembers who can now be selected according to the newly approved Flight Operations manuals, can now be trained according to the newly approved Flight Training programs - Pilots and Flight Attendants.
There are many more expamples I can give - and there will be many tasks that will be done in parallel - however, each of these will be observed and evaluated by the Principle Inspectors - Operations, Maintenance, & Avionics - all ensuring compliance of the (applicant) operator.
After training & maintenance have been completed, the ground, dispatch, and other support organizations have had personnel selected and trained, and the FAA believes that the company is ready - they will get the five sacred FAA approved managers - the Director of Operations, Chief Pilot, Director of Maintenance, Chief Inspector, and Director of Safety - together to go through a very thorough and rigorous process of "table topics" - sitting around a table and being given a number of scenarios wherein these five people must demonstrate their knowledge of, and ability to apply the company procedures in normal and abnormal circumstances. Very challenging.
Once their people have demonstrated a satisfactory level of competence in their diciplines and the company has implemented the requisite support systems and resources for them, then, and only then, they will be scheduled for their emergency evacuation drills - flight crews with passengers on the aircraft, demonstrating evac procedures and proficiency - after getting this completed, the FAA will schedule Baltia's "proving runs" - many hours of flying - up to 100, which can be reduced somewhat, if approved - wherein they demonstrate "live" flights with crews their ability to fly live flights, with the FAA interjecting abnormal and emergency scenarios - example - half way between New York and St. Petersburg, they may be told they have a seriously ill passenger, they institute many procedures which may include an unscheduled landing - or they may give them a simulated aircraft emergency, and they demonstrate handling it - or . . . . manyother tests of their skills and systems integrity. During "proving runs" the company can carry freight for customers, but no passengers.
Somewhere during this plan, the DOT will work out a launch date, wherein Baltia may begin selling tickets and accepting money for scheduled flights, but with no more than 30 days notice.
If Baltia passes these tests, and all requisite elements are in place (proper authorizations - fueling agreements, ground vendor contracts, over-flight agreements, tax & airport fees, and many, many more), then they will get the green light and become certificated to operate as an FAA FAR Part 121 Scheduled Flag Air Carrier.
Timing - AFTER moving into the next phase (which I believe will happen within a few weeks) - then 2 to 3 months to get a lot of parallel activities completed to do the proving runs. These are my estimates, but I believe realistic - an overwhelming amount of work to do - but doable.
Good luck to all here. Baltia will need to raise more $$$, but it will be much easier as they move through these phases and are able to communicate clear progress.
