.....from post #39418 : Though source was questio
Post# of 22456
Posted On: 07/02/2015 9:08:04 PM
.....from post #39418 : Though source was questioned, I'd think statements from Liberum/Canacord were legit
Liberum
Runcorn on track
Processing green dots has moved from the pilot lab in Manchester to the volume plant in Runcorn. Final tweaks are being made to the red dots in the pilot lab before processing is moved to Runcorn. Runcorn currently has a theoretical capacity of 40-50Kg, if it were to run on three shifts with some additional manpower. If a further £400K-£500K were to be spent on equipment, capacity can be increased to about 100Kg, not insignificant compared to the initial ramp which we believe to be about 800Kg at Dow's Korean facility next year. Runcorn capacity could therefore contribute to the initial supply build-up for the first customer, till the Korean facility comes on stream.
........... could contribute for the 1st customer (till the Korean facility comes on stream.....WOW!!
Canacord
Capacity at Runcorn was doubled in late 2013 to c.50kgs of quantum dot material. We expect initial commercial orders for Nanoco quantum dots to be delivered from Runcorn.
Dow anticipates its commercial quantum dot production facility in South Korea will be completed in early 2015. We understand the equipment designs are largely complete and Dow will place orders for equipment once a customer places an order. Dow estimates that lead time for the delivery and installation of the equipment is around 7 months with an estimated additional 1-2 months for commissioning the equipment.
........" Dow will place orders for equipment once a customer places an order".....that could represent a serious delay if Nanoco's CFQDs metric aren't up to par w/competitors, (at that point in time).
........regardless, another 9 months or so after the plant is built when they just started breaking ground?? Though among the 1st, they may end up being late for the main party of "QDs Mainstream"
" Traditional valuation metrics have little relevance until commercial production commences and ramps up to meaningful volumes, most likely in FY15."
.....maybe that's how/why they had a PE of 85+
"Share performance catalyst
Pilot launch of the first TVs using cadmium-free quantum dots during 2014. "
..... PE of 85+ represents a lot of exuberance and expectations imo
" LCDs are currently making use of only about 30 –50% of human colour perception capability. Quantum dots can provide up to 50% colour enhancement over LCDs."
.........it sounds to me like that Nanoco's performance metric w/ CFQDs is 75% of human colour perception capability . That level may be a potential problem for them, if the 75% level hasn't been improved imo.
____________________________________________________
"Nanoco has an exclusive worldwide licensing agreement with Dow for the manufacture, sale and marketing of Nanoco’s quantum dots for use in electronic displays. The agreement is over 15 years with capital requirements totally funded by Dow . Nanoco will receive a high royalty rate ( we estimate of the order of 25% on the first $1bn of sales ) on ex-works sales of cadmium free quantum dots from Dow to the customer. "
.....50Kg capacity from Runcorn w/75% metric,....and if Dow doesn't sell them???......but a guess on royalty, (does it continue at a reduced rate after the 1st billion or does it stop??)
" Nanoco’s joint development programme with customers and Dow’s signing a commercial deal are separate and not linked "
.......one presumes, also an aspect of Dow/Nanoco contractual agreement ......sounds like limited leeway, if Dow control mfg/sales
______________________________________________
"The Dow facility will have an initial capacity we estimate around 800kg of quantum dots and will ramp up rapidly over the following year or two to an initial target of around 5,000kg quantum dot capacity . As a reminder, <1 gram of cadmium-free quantum dots (based on film method of integration) is required in a 60-inch LCD display. This implies that 20m 55-inch LCD TV’s sold in 2013 would require c.15,000kgs of cadmium-free quantum dots .
......let's say both plants kicked out 1000Kgs; 2013 "This implies that 20m 55-inch LCD TV’s sold in 2013 would require c.15,000kgs of cadmium-free quantum dots." : How exactly do they get there to meet just this market? ....1 - 2yrs to get to 5,000 Kg.
It doesn't make sense to me that they will be able to also meet the mkt needs of SSL and Solar.
The following may be a clue as to how they're to meet that need, "Nanoco-Dow is working with certain film coating manufacturers to produce cadmium free quantum dots film in commercial quantities."
......ironic given their claim of being the only CFQD mfg of mass production.
.....we know that Samsung backed off of Dow/Nanoco 2015 and the word was that LG would re-negotiate w/them. Was there an efficiency, (wrt 75% meteric) or mayhap sufficient supply concern? Samsung/LG action means there was a reason behind their decision.
......Supply does sound like it was a concern
http://michaelwalters.com/stories/news.phtml?num=4180
________________________________________________
......liking QMC better all the time
Liberum
Runcorn on track
Processing green dots has moved from the pilot lab in Manchester to the volume plant in Runcorn. Final tweaks are being made to the red dots in the pilot lab before processing is moved to Runcorn. Runcorn currently has a theoretical capacity of 40-50Kg, if it were to run on three shifts with some additional manpower. If a further £400K-£500K were to be spent on equipment, capacity can be increased to about 100Kg, not insignificant compared to the initial ramp which we believe to be about 800Kg at Dow's Korean facility next year. Runcorn capacity could therefore contribute to the initial supply build-up for the first customer, till the Korean facility comes on stream.
........... could contribute for the 1st customer (till the Korean facility comes on stream.....WOW!!
Canacord
Capacity at Runcorn was doubled in late 2013 to c.50kgs of quantum dot material. We expect initial commercial orders for Nanoco quantum dots to be delivered from Runcorn.
Dow anticipates its commercial quantum dot production facility in South Korea will be completed in early 2015. We understand the equipment designs are largely complete and Dow will place orders for equipment once a customer places an order. Dow estimates that lead time for the delivery and installation of the equipment is around 7 months with an estimated additional 1-2 months for commissioning the equipment.
........" Dow will place orders for equipment once a customer places an order".....that could represent a serious delay if Nanoco's CFQDs metric aren't up to par w/competitors, (at that point in time).
........regardless, another 9 months or so after the plant is built when they just started breaking ground?? Though among the 1st, they may end up being late for the main party of "QDs Mainstream"
" Traditional valuation metrics have little relevance until commercial production commences and ramps up to meaningful volumes, most likely in FY15."
.....maybe that's how/why they had a PE of 85+
"Share performance catalyst
Pilot launch of the first TVs using cadmium-free quantum dots during 2014. "
..... PE of 85+ represents a lot of exuberance and expectations imo
" LCDs are currently making use of only about 30 –50% of human colour perception capability. Quantum dots can provide up to 50% colour enhancement over LCDs."
.........it sounds to me like that Nanoco's performance metric w/ CFQDs is 75% of human colour perception capability . That level may be a potential problem for them, if the 75% level hasn't been improved imo.
____________________________________________________
"Nanoco has an exclusive worldwide licensing agreement with Dow for the manufacture, sale and marketing of Nanoco’s quantum dots for use in electronic displays. The agreement is over 15 years with capital requirements totally funded by Dow . Nanoco will receive a high royalty rate ( we estimate of the order of 25% on the first $1bn of sales ) on ex-works sales of cadmium free quantum dots from Dow to the customer. "
.....50Kg capacity from Runcorn w/75% metric,....and if Dow doesn't sell them???......but a guess on royalty, (does it continue at a reduced rate after the 1st billion or does it stop??)
" Nanoco’s joint development programme with customers and Dow’s signing a commercial deal are separate and not linked "
.......one presumes, also an aspect of Dow/Nanoco contractual agreement ......sounds like limited leeway, if Dow control mfg/sales
______________________________________________
"The Dow facility will have an initial capacity we estimate around 800kg of quantum dots and will ramp up rapidly over the following year or two to an initial target of around 5,000kg quantum dot capacity . As a reminder, <1 gram of cadmium-free quantum dots (based on film method of integration) is required in a 60-inch LCD display. This implies that 20m 55-inch LCD TV’s sold in 2013 would require c.15,000kgs of cadmium-free quantum dots .
......let's say both plants kicked out 1000Kgs; 2013 "This implies that 20m 55-inch LCD TV’s sold in 2013 would require c.15,000kgs of cadmium-free quantum dots." : How exactly do they get there to meet just this market? ....1 - 2yrs to get to 5,000 Kg.
It doesn't make sense to me that they will be able to also meet the mkt needs of SSL and Solar.
The following may be a clue as to how they're to meet that need, "Nanoco-Dow is working with certain film coating manufacturers to produce cadmium free quantum dots film in commercial quantities."
......ironic given their claim of being the only CFQD mfg of mass production.
.....we know that Samsung backed off of Dow/Nanoco 2015 and the word was that LG would re-negotiate w/them. Was there an efficiency, (wrt 75% meteric) or mayhap sufficient supply concern? Samsung/LG action means there was a reason behind their decision.
......Supply does sound like it was a concern
http://michaelwalters.com/stories/news.phtml?num=4180
________________________________________________
......liking QMC better all the time
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