Ultrashort Tips Proshares (TPS) 26.90 $TPS
Up Next: New 30-Year TIPS Will Auction February 19, 2015
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Thu Feb 12, 7:21PM CST
The Treasury just announced that it will be auctioning a new 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security on February 19. This is CUSIP 912810RL4 and the coupon rate and yield to maturity will be determined by the auction. Here is how this auction...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
TIPS Versus I Bonds During Deflationary Times, Why I Bonds Will Win
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 6:21PM CST
We don't often see deflationary periods, so I think buyers of Series I Savings Bonds don't understand that their fixed rate can be wiped out by a deflationary inflation-adjusted rate. This has actually only happened once before, in May 2009, when the...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
A Very Pernicious Partnership: Keynesian Money Printers And Wall Street Gamblers
David Stockman - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 1:53PM CST
No sooner was the January jobs report released than the Wall Street Journal posted a succinct headline: "Hiring, Wages Pick Up as Job Market Nears Full Health". Whether the job market is actually as red hot as the BLS' headline numbers...
TLH: 136.86 (-0.66), TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), DLBL: 78.14 (+0.78), SINF: 47.80 (unch), MBG: 27.29 (+0.01), TLO: 73.76 (-0.77), UBT: 83.49 (-1.42), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), DLBS: 20.57 (+0.51), ZROZ: 123.35 (-1.57), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), HOLD: 99.38 (+0.07), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), TTT: 38.96 (+1.14), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), MBB: 109.88 (+0.03), GMTB: 52.35 (-0.02), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), TYBS: 22.40 (+0.20), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), EDV: 126.88 (-1.85), GNMA: 50.34 (-0.26), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), TFLO: 50.07 (-0.06), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SBND: 4.44 (+0.08), TBF: 24.63 (+0.25), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VGLT: 78.92 (-0.70), RAVI: 75.36 (+0.03), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01), ULST: 40.01 (unch), NEAR: 50.09 (-0.01), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), FTSM: 60.00 (unch), USFR: 24.89 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), AGZ: 114.28 (+0.08), ICSH: 50.02 (+0.09), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), TENZ: 86.50 (-0.21), LBND: 56.35 (-2.05), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), VMBS: 53.15 (-0.09), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), FTSD: 99.21 (unch), MINT: 101.06 (-0.01), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
TIPS Going Negative Again: Not Good News!
John M. Mason - at Seeking Alpha - Sun Feb 01, 6:27AM CST
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
Walls Of Worry Persist
Calafia Beach Pundit - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 30, 1:48AM CST
The market is still climbing walls of worry, and that's a good sign. As I see it, here's the bearish case for equities: The Fed is no longer "printing money" and is soon going to begin to raise short-term interest rates. The market has...
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), QQQ: 106.91 (+0.91), GLD: 117.98 (+0.64), DIA: 180.34 (+0.50), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02)
Up Next: New 10-Year TIPS Will Auction Jan. 22, 2015
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Thu Jan 15, 12:54PM CST
The Treasury just announced next week's TIPS auction: CUSIP 912828H45, a new issue with the coupon rate to be determined at auction on Jan. 22, 2015. This auction will come amid a lot of turmoil in financial markets, with Treasury yields...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
One More Wall Of Worry That We'll Likely Overcome
Calafia Beach Pundit - Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 09, 3:58AM CST
(click to enlarge) The stock market has faced three "walls of worry" in as many months. The first worry was centered around the Ebola crisis, and the second and third were "fueled" by collapsing oil prices. All three involved...
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), ILB: 44.90 (-0.07), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), WIP: 55.66 (+0.13), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), ITIP: 43.07 (-0.01), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), GTIP: 48.61 (unch), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02)
Yield Curve Bleg
Scott Sumner - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Jan 06, 4:51AM CST
I notice that 5-year Treasuries are currently yielding 1.56% and 10-year yields are 2.04%. I was taught two theories of the yield curve: Expectations hypothesis-> Long term yields are an average of expected future short term yields. Term...
TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), SINF: 47.80 (unch), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03)
Recapping 2014: The Year In Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 02, 10:46AM CST
After suffering through a miserable 2013, holders of mutual funds based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities enjoyed a rather pleasant 2014. The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TIP ) - a big fund that is diversified through maturity dates -...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
More Signs Of Strength
Calafia Beach Pundit - Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 24, 1:36AM CST
Today's revision to Q3/14 GDP growth was surprisingly strong (+5.0% vs. an expected 4.3%) and figures prominently in a series of indicators pointing to an acceleration of growth from the relatively miserable 2.3% trend that has prevailed for most of...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
The Fed Remains Optimistic On The U.S. Economy For 2015
James Picerno - Seeking Alpha - Thu Dec 18, 12:01PM CST
Yesterday's update of the Federal Reserve's quarterly economic forecast is a minor triumph for optimism. The central bank still expects that U.S. GDP in 2015 will increase in the range of 2.6% to 3.0%, unchanged from its previous estimate in...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
Pimco 2015 outlook: Drop in oil most important new development
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Dec 18, 11:11AM CST
LDUR: 100.51 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FBND: 50.52 (-0.06), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), IUSB: 101.13 (-0.22), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), GBF: 115.03 (-0.39), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), AGG: 110.76 (-0.13), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), DI: 49.57 (+0.02), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), SCHZ: 52.63 (-0.01), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), PDI: 29.51 (unch), BOND: 109.14 (-0.10), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), FWDB: 25.72 (+0.01), VBND: 50.07 (-0.09), SAGG: 32.96 (unch), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), LAG: 58.58 (-0.10), BND: 82.80 (-0.19)
Chart Of The Day: TIPS Yield Curve Is Flattening Out
Tipswatch - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Dec 16, 8:57PM CST
(click to enlarge) Source: Bloomberg My reaction: "Are my eyes deceiving me?" A 5-year TIPS is trading on the secondary market with a yield to maturity of 0.31%, just 17 basis points below the yield on a 10-year TIPS, and only 54...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
5-Year TIPS Will Reopen At Auction Thursday, Dec. 18: May Be Worth An Investment
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Mon Dec 15, 8:59AM CST
Originally published on Dec. 11, 2014 Hey TIPS fans, we're going to close out 2014 with a very interesting auction - one that might actually be worth an investment, especially if you are looking for a short-term TIPS with a positive yield, great...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
'Real' Return: Why TIPS And I Bonds Are Still Attractive
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Mon Dec 15, 8:50AM CST
Originally published on Dec. 5, 2014 I was listening to NPR's Marketplace last night, a story about the gentrification of a Los Angeles neighborhood. And then came this quote from Steve Jones, the owner of a house-flipping business, on how he...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
How Did We Get Here?
Auspex Research - Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 10, 3:43PM CST
I was asked to write something for a friend who knows only a little about the stock market that gives my thoughts on the current economic environment given the fact that mainstream media is trumpeting the successes of this supposed strong economy. He...
TLH: 136.86 (-0.66), TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), DLBL: 78.14 (+0.78), SINF: 47.80 (unch), MBG: 27.29 (+0.01), TLO: 73.76 (-0.77), UBT: 83.49 (-1.42), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), DLBS: 20.57 (+0.51), ZROZ: 123.35 (-1.57), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), TTT: 38.96 (+1.14), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), MBB: 109.88 (+0.03), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), TYBS: 22.40 (+0.20), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), EDV: 126.88 (-1.85), GNMA: 50.34 (-0.26), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), TFLO: 50.07 (-0.06), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SBND: 4.44 (+0.08), TBF: 24.63 (+0.25), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VGLT: 78.92 (-0.70), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), USFR: 24.89 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), AGZ: 114.28 (+0.08), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), TENZ: 86.50 (-0.21), LBND: 56.35 (-2.05), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), VMBS: 53.15 (-0.09), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
Distended Belly
John Jansen - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 03, 9:31PM CST
The belly of the Treasury curve is undergoing an episode of bond market dyspepsia with the 5s 30s spread at its narrowest level in years. I opened that spread this morning at 140.1 (730AM as I awoke late) and it currently rests at 138.5. I think I...
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
Risk Aversion Slowly Declines
Calafia Beach Pundit - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 03, 3:34AM CST
(click to enlarge) I've been featuring this chart off and on for more than a year. I think it is arguably one of the best ways to track the degree of risk aversion that is embodied in market prices. This has been the most risk-averse recovery...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
Target The Spread?
John Cochrane - Seeking Alpha - Thu Nov 27, 2:21AM CST
(click to enlarge) To send you off with some more Thanksgiving good cheer, here is another out of the box Neo-Fisherian idea. Perhaps the Fed (or the Treasury) should target the spread between real and nominal interest rates. Above, I plotted...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
The Return Of Conundrum
Joseph Calhoun - Seeking Alpha - Mon Nov 24, 3:04AM CST
By Joseph Y. Calh oun co·nun·drum - noun: A confusing or difficult problem; a question or problem having only a conjectural answer - Merriam-Webster Back in the last Fed tightening cycle, Alan Greenspan described the refusal...
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
Up Next: New 30-Year TIPS Will Auction February 19, 2015
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Thu Feb 12, 7:21PM CST
The Treasury just announced that it will be auctioning a new 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security on February 19. This is CUSIP 912810RL4 and the coupon rate and yield to maturity will be determined by the auction. Here is how this auction...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
TIPS Versus I Bonds During Deflationary Times, Why I Bonds Will Win
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 6:21PM CST
We don't often see deflationary periods, so I think buyers of Series I Savings Bonds don't understand that their fixed rate can be wiped out by a deflationary inflation-adjusted rate. This has actually only happened once before, in May 2009, when the...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
A Very Pernicious Partnership: Keynesian Money Printers And Wall Street Gamblers
David Stockman - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 1:53PM CST
No sooner was the January jobs report released than the Wall Street Journal posted a succinct headline: "Hiring, Wages Pick Up as Job Market Nears Full Health". Whether the job market is actually as red hot as the BLS' headline numbers...
TLH: 136.86 (-0.66), TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), DLBL: 78.14 (+0.78), SINF: 47.80 (unch), MBG: 27.29 (+0.01), TLO: 73.76 (-0.77), UBT: 83.49 (-1.42), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), DLBS: 20.57 (+0.51), ZROZ: 123.35 (-1.57), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), HOLD: 99.38 (+0.07), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), TTT: 38.96 (+1.14), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), MBB: 109.88 (+0.03), GMTB: 52.35 (-0.02), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), TYBS: 22.40 (+0.20), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), EDV: 126.88 (-1.85), GNMA: 50.34 (-0.26), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), TFLO: 50.07 (-0.06), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SBND: 4.44 (+0.08), TBF: 24.63 (+0.25), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VGLT: 78.92 (-0.70), RAVI: 75.36 (+0.03), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01), ULST: 40.01 (unch), NEAR: 50.09 (-0.01), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), FTSM: 60.00 (unch), USFR: 24.89 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), AGZ: 114.28 (+0.08), ICSH: 50.02 (+0.09), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), TENZ: 86.50 (-0.21), LBND: 56.35 (-2.05), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), VMBS: 53.15 (-0.09), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), FTSD: 99.21 (unch), MINT: 101.06 (-0.01), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
TIPS Going Negative Again: Not Good News!
John M. Mason - at Seeking Alpha - Sun Feb 01, 6:27AM CST
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
Walls Of Worry Persist
Calafia Beach Pundit - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 30, 1:48AM CST
The market is still climbing walls of worry, and that's a good sign. As I see it, here's the bearish case for equities: The Fed is no longer "printing money" and is soon going to begin to raise short-term interest rates. The market has...
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), QQQ: 106.91 (+0.91), GLD: 117.98 (+0.64), DIA: 180.34 (+0.50), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02)
Up Next: New 10-Year TIPS Will Auction Jan. 22, 2015
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Thu Jan 15, 12:54PM CST
The Treasury just announced next week's TIPS auction: CUSIP 912828H45, a new issue with the coupon rate to be determined at auction on Jan. 22, 2015. This auction will come amid a lot of turmoil in financial markets, with Treasury yields...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
One More Wall Of Worry That We'll Likely Overcome
Calafia Beach Pundit - Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 09, 3:58AM CST
(click to enlarge) The stock market has faced three "walls of worry" in as many months. The first worry was centered around the Ebola crisis, and the second and third were "fueled" by collapsing oil prices. All three involved...
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), ILB: 44.90 (-0.07), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), WIP: 55.66 (+0.13), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), ITIP: 43.07 (-0.01), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), GTIP: 48.61 (unch), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02)
Yield Curve Bleg
Scott Sumner - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Jan 06, 4:51AM CST
I notice that 5-year Treasuries are currently yielding 1.56% and 10-year yields are 2.04%. I was taught two theories of the yield curve: Expectations hypothesis-> Long term yields are an average of expected future short term yields. Term...
TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), SINF: 47.80 (unch), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03)
Recapping 2014: The Year In Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 02, 10:46AM CST
After suffering through a miserable 2013, holders of mutual funds based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities enjoyed a rather pleasant 2014. The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TIP ) - a big fund that is diversified through maturity dates -...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
More Signs Of Strength
Calafia Beach Pundit - Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 24, 1:36AM CST
Today's revision to Q3/14 GDP growth was surprisingly strong (+5.0% vs. an expected 4.3%) and figures prominently in a series of indicators pointing to an acceleration of growth from the relatively miserable 2.3% trend that has prevailed for most of...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
The Fed Remains Optimistic On The U.S. Economy For 2015
James Picerno - Seeking Alpha - Thu Dec 18, 12:01PM CST
Yesterday's update of the Federal Reserve's quarterly economic forecast is a minor triumph for optimism. The central bank still expects that U.S. GDP in 2015 will increase in the range of 2.6% to 3.0%, unchanged from its previous estimate in...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
Pimco 2015 outlook: Drop in oil most important new development
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Dec 18, 11:11AM CST
LDUR: 100.51 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FBND: 50.52 (-0.06), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), IUSB: 101.13 (-0.22), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), GBF: 115.03 (-0.39), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), AGG: 110.76 (-0.13), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), DI: 49.57 (+0.02), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), SCHZ: 52.63 (-0.01), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), PDI: 29.51 (unch), BOND: 109.14 (-0.10), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), FWDB: 25.72 (+0.01), VBND: 50.07 (-0.09), SAGG: 32.96 (unch), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), LAG: 58.58 (-0.10), BND: 82.80 (-0.19)
Chart Of The Day: TIPS Yield Curve Is Flattening Out
Tipswatch - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Dec 16, 8:57PM CST
(click to enlarge) Source: Bloomberg My reaction: "Are my eyes deceiving me?" A 5-year TIPS is trading on the secondary market with a yield to maturity of 0.31%, just 17 basis points below the yield on a 10-year TIPS, and only 54...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
5-Year TIPS Will Reopen At Auction Thursday, Dec. 18: May Be Worth An Investment
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Mon Dec 15, 8:59AM CST
Originally published on Dec. 11, 2014 Hey TIPS fans, we're going to close out 2014 with a very interesting auction - one that might actually be worth an investment, especially if you are looking for a short-term TIPS with a positive yield, great...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
'Real' Return: Why TIPS And I Bonds Are Still Attractive
Tipswatch - Seeking Alpha - Mon Dec 15, 8:50AM CST
Originally published on Dec. 5, 2014 I was listening to NPR's Marketplace last night, a story about the gentrification of a Los Angeles neighborhood. And then came this quote from Steve Jones, the owner of a house-flipping business, on how he...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
How Did We Get Here?
Auspex Research - Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 10, 3:43PM CST
I was asked to write something for a friend who knows only a little about the stock market that gives my thoughts on the current economic environment given the fact that mainstream media is trumpeting the successes of this supposed strong economy. He...
TLH: 136.86 (-0.66), TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), DLBL: 78.14 (+0.78), SINF: 47.80 (unch), MBG: 27.29 (+0.01), TLO: 73.76 (-0.77), UBT: 83.49 (-1.42), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), DLBS: 20.57 (+0.51), ZROZ: 123.35 (-1.57), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), TTT: 38.96 (+1.14), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), MBB: 109.88 (+0.03), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), TYBS: 22.40 (+0.20), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), EDV: 126.88 (-1.85), GNMA: 50.34 (-0.26), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), TFLO: 50.07 (-0.06), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SBND: 4.44 (+0.08), TBF: 24.63 (+0.25), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VGLT: 78.92 (-0.70), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), USFR: 24.89 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), AGZ: 114.28 (+0.08), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), TENZ: 86.50 (-0.21), LBND: 56.35 (-2.05), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), VMBS: 53.15 (-0.09), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
Distended Belly
John Jansen - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 03, 9:31PM CST
The belly of the Treasury curve is undergoing an episode of bond market dyspepsia with the 5s 30s spread at its narrowest level in years. I opened that spread this morning at 140.1 (730AM as I awoke late) and it currently rests at 138.5. I think I...
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
Risk Aversion Slowly Declines
Calafia Beach Pundit - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 03, 3:34AM CST
(click to enlarge) I've been featuring this chart off and on for more than a year. I think it is arguably one of the best ways to track the degree of risk aversion that is embodied in market prices. This has been the most risk-averse recovery...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
Target The Spread?
John Cochrane - Seeking Alpha - Thu Nov 27, 2:21AM CST
(click to enlarge) To send you off with some more Thanksgiving good cheer, here is another out of the box Neo-Fisherian idea. Perhaps the Fed (or the Treasury) should target the spread between real and nominal interest rates. Above, I plotted...
LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09)
The Return Of Conundrum
Joseph Calhoun - Seeking Alpha - Mon Nov 24, 3:04AM CST
By Joseph Y. Calh oun co·nun·drum - noun: A confusing or difficult problem; a question or problem having only a conjectural answer - Merriam-Webster Back in the last Fed tightening cycle, Alan Greenspan described the refusal...
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
