Sizing Up The Next Moves In The Market
Market Anthropology - Seeking Alpha - Fri Feb 13, 10:28AM CST
Like any major move, the crash in crude oil was propelled by more than just one condition. Speculative positioning, production, demand - they all played a supporting role. And although the circumstances that led to its precipitous decline can be...
USO: 19.62 (+0.44), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), OIL: 12.01 (+0.34), SHY: 84.64 (unch), FXE: 112.16 (-0.15), UDN: 22.76 (+0.03), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), UUP: 24.91 (-0.01)
Dual Momentum Portfolio Update
Scott's Investments - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 4:02PM CST
Scott's Investments provides a free "Dual ETF Momentum" spreadsheet which was originally created in February 2013. The strategy was inspired by a paper written by Gary Antonacci and available on Optimal Momentum. Antonacci has a new book...
VTI: 108.47 (+0.51), HYG: 91.12 (+0.13), GLD: 117.98 (+0.64), REM: 11.74 (+0.04), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VNQ: 85.06 (-0.57), VEU: 48.81 (+0.34), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), CIU: 110.04 (-0.16)
Dividend Aristocrats: 12 Highest Yielding Stocks For Retirement
Lowell Herr - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 2:16PM CST
VTI: 108.47 (+0.51), TGT: 76.12 (-0.75), SHY: 84.64 (unch), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33)
FOMC voters getting itchy trigger fingers
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Feb 10, 12:26PM CST
DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), USFR: 24.89 (unch), TFLO: 50.07 (-0.06), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
A Very Pernicious Partnership: Keynesian Money Printers And Wall Street Gamblers
David Stockman - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 1:53PM CST
No sooner was the January jobs report released than the Wall Street Journal posted a succinct headline: "Hiring, Wages Pick Up as Job Market Nears Full Health". Whether the job market is actually as red hot as the BLS' headline numbers...
TLH: 136.86 (-0.66), TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), DLBL: 78.14 (+0.78), SINF: 47.80 (unch), MBG: 27.29 (+0.01), TLO: 73.76 (-0.77), UBT: 83.49 (-1.42), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), DLBS: 20.57 (+0.51), ZROZ: 123.35 (-1.57), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), HOLD: 99.38 (+0.07), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), TTT: 38.96 (+1.14), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), MBB: 109.88 (+0.03), GMTB: 52.35 (-0.02), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), TYBS: 22.40 (+0.20), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), EDV: 126.88 (-1.85), GNMA: 50.34 (-0.26), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), TFLO: 50.07 (-0.06), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SBND: 4.44 (+0.08), TBF: 24.63 (+0.25), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VGLT: 78.92 (-0.70), RAVI: 75.36 (+0.03), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01), ULST: 40.01 (unch), NEAR: 50.09 (-0.01), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), FTSM: 60.00 (unch), USFR: 24.89 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), AGZ: 114.28 (+0.08), ICSH: 50.02 (+0.09), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), TENZ: 86.50 (-0.21), LBND: 56.35 (-2.05), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), VMBS: 53.15 (-0.09), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), FTSD: 99.21 (unch), MINT: 101.06 (-0.01), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
Fed's Lockhart: Rate hike possible "from June on"
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Feb 06, 11:50AM CST
DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01)
Going Negative?
Douglas Tengdin - Seeking Alpha - Fri Feb 06, 9:41AM CST
What's up with negative interest rates? Temperatures aren't the only thing below zero these days. Around the world bond yields have gone negative. It started a few years ago in the US, when ultra-short Treasury Bills would go negative right...
SHY: 84.64 (unch)
Will The Fed Start Raising Interest Rates Later This Year?
James Picerno - Seeking Alpha - Fri Feb 06, 8:49AM CST
Warren Buffett has his doubts, and so do plenty of other analysts. Weak economic activity overseas is arguably a factor that could delay the onset of US tightening. Based on the domestic trend, however, the case for raising rates soon is...
TLH: 136.86 (-0.66), DLBL: 78.14 (+0.78), TLO: 73.76 (-0.77), UBT: 83.49 (-1.42), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), DLBS: 20.57 (+0.51), ZROZ: 123.35 (-1.57), TTT: 38.96 (+1.14), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), TYBS: 22.40 (+0.20), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), TENZ: 86.50 (-0.21), EDV: 126.88 (-1.85), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), LBND: 56.35 (-2.05), SBND: 4.44 (+0.08), TBF: 24.63 (+0.25), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), VGLT: 78.92 (-0.70), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01)
Implied Forward T-Bill Rates Show A Rise To 2.59% In 2021, Up 0.12% From Last Week
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Feb 05, 5:35PM CST
NUV: 9.86 (-0.02), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), REM: 11.74 (+0.04), AGG: 110.76 (-0.13), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BND: 82.80 (-0.19), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88)
Updating The Baker's Dozen Portfolio: A Slight Modification Of The IVY 10
Lowell Herr - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 2:02PM CST
TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), DBC: 18.30 (+0.20), VEA: 39.68 (+0.28), VOE: 91.87 (+0.27), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), VTI: 108.47 (+0.51), PCY: 28.51 (-0.04), VBR: 107.43 (+0.56), GLD: 117.98 (+0.64), RWX: 44.34 (+0.30), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VWO: 41.78 (+0.42), VEU: 48.81 (+0.34), VNQ: 85.06 (-0.57)
Kocherlakota and Bullard spar on policy
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Feb 03, 11:56AM CST
DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01)
ETFReplay.com Portfolio Update
Scott's Investments - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 02, 8:02PM CST
The ETFReplay.com Portfolio holdings have been updated for February 2015. I previously detailed here and here how an investor can use ETFReplay.com to screen for best performing ETFs based on momentum and volatility. The portfolio begins with a...
HYG: 91.12 (+0.13), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), DBC: 18.30 (+0.20), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), WIP: 55.66 (+0.13), VTI: 108.47 (+0.51), PCY: 28.51 (-0.04), EEM: 40.67 (+0.46), RWX: 44.34 (+0.30), LQD: 120.83 (-0.48), GLD: 117.98 (+0.64), SHY: 84.64 (unch), EFA: 63.82 (+0.42), VNQ: 85.06 (-0.57)
iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund announces monthly distribution of $0.033
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 02, 1:52PM CST
SHY: 84.64 (unch)
Interest Rate Cycle Sharpens As Implied Forward T-Bill Rates Bend Down By 0.30% In 2025
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 30, 10:28AM CST
NUV: 9.86 (-0.02), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), REM: 11.74 (+0.04), AGG: 110.76 (-0.13), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BND: 82.80 (-0.19), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88)
Bullard: Expectations for summer rate hike "reasonable"
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 30, 8:32AM CST
TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01)
CAT CEO urges Fed not to raise rates this year
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Jan 27, 7:29AM CST
DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), CAT: 85.13 (+1.60), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01)
U.S. Treasury Term Premium Unchanged But Higher Expected Rates Increase Forward T-Bill Rates By 0.27%
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 23, 5:23PM CST
NUV: 9.86 (-0.02), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), REM: 11.74 (+0.04), AGG: 110.76 (-0.13), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BND: 82.80 (-0.19), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88)
SHY: ETF Outflow Alert
ETFChannel.com - Thu Jan 22, 10:10AM CST
Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF where we have detected an approximate $33.9 million dollar outflow -- that's a 0.4%...
SHY: 84.64 (unch)
Forward 1 Month T-Bill Rates Drop Up To 0.43% While U.S. Treasury Term Premium Stay Steady At 0.69% At 30 Years
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 16, 1:20AM CST
NUV: 9.86 (-0.02), BOND: 109.14 (-0.10), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), REM: 11.74 (+0.04), SHY: 84.64 (unch), BND: 82.80 (-0.19), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88)
Protect Profits By Implementing A Risk Reduction Strategy
Lowell Herr - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Jan 15, 12:21PM CST
VTI: 108.47 (+0.51), SHY: 84.64 (unch), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33)