Short 30 Year Tips/Tsy Spread Proshares (FINF) 42.47 $FINF
ETF Deathwatch For February 2015: Closures Reduce The List
Ron Rowland - Seeking Alpha - Fri Feb 13, 3:00AM CST
The ETF Deathwatch membership roll contains 15 fewer names this month. There were 11 additions, but 26 managed to escape. Unfortunately, 22 of the escapees exited due to product death and delisting. Just four products left because of improved health....
SINF: 47.80 (unch), SJH: 49.87 (-2.39), SKK: 33.55 (-1.31), SFK: 20.51 (-1.28), UVT: 58.90 (+1.67), CVOL: 0.95 (-0.04), SJL: 61.99 (unch), UKW: 116.13 (+4.04), SDK: 60.50 (-0.50), GYEN: 13.48 (+0.12), UVU: 95.57 (+3.57), FWDI: 27.01 (+0.25), UKF: 136.86 (+4.96), ONEF: 35.99 (-0.22), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), TWQ: 18.11 (-0.70), SJF: 30.36 (-1.04), RDVY: 22.49 (+0.17), UKK: 104.31 (+4.41), UWC: 100.96 (+3.20), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), BARL: 19.19 (unch), UVG: 75.26 (+1.93)
The Federal Reserve And Borg Assimilation
Brad DeLong - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 3:12AM CST
Larry Summers : Only raise US rates when whites of inflation’s eyes are visible : “Aborting recovery and risking a further slowing of price rises is potentially catastrophic…” Larry Summers would have been a very...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
The Time For Lift-Off Of Fed Tightening Is Nigh
Learn Bonds - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 2:57AM CST
These are interesting times in the bond market. For the first time in approximately eight years, it appears that the time for lift-off of Fed tightening is nigh. This has resulted some "interesting" theories of how the bond market and fixed...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Lots Of Reasons To Be Optimistic
Calafia Beach Pundit - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 2:47AM CST
Beginning a little over one year ago, there have been quite a few developments that have positively impacted the economy. Many signs now point to a noticeable improvement in the economy's underlying growth fundamentals that bode well for the future. ...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Winter Is Coming
The Inflation Trader - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 2:24AM CST
Sometimes being a value investor, amid overvalued (and ever more so) markets, feels a bit like being a Stark in Westeros. The analogy will be lost on you if you do not follow Game of Thrones , but the Starks hold the largest of the sub-kingdoms in...
VGK: 54.96 (+0.18), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), SINF: 47.80 (unch), GREK: 13.65 (+0.66), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), EU: 20.54 (-0.08), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Fedspeak Points To June
Tim Duy - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 1:43AM CST
Federal Reserve speakers were out and about Tuesday. First off, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker set a fairly high bar for NOT hiking in June. Via the Wall Street Journal : "At this point, raising rates in June looks like the...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Wholesale Problems
Joseph Calhoun - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 1:34AM CST
By Jeffrey P. Snider One of the primary criticisms I have leveled against economic interpretations based solely on statistics like GDP is that they are relative in the narrowest sense. GDP especially compares one quarter to the prior, meaning that...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
On The Fed Credibility Gap
Tim Duy - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 11:52PM CST
Financial market participants do not believe the Fed will pursue their expected policy path: David Wessel opines on the reasons from his post at Brookings: First, financial markets are not interested in the median Fed official; they're...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Will Faster Wage Growth Raise Inflation?
James Picerno - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 5:43PM CST
Maybe, but the current pace of wage increases for workers in the US-even after the pop reported in January's payrolls data-still implies inflation at a rate that's well below the Fed's 2% target. Nonetheless, analysts are becoming more confident...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
A Very Pernicious Partnership: Keynesian Money Printers And Wall Street Gamblers
David Stockman - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 1:53PM CST
No sooner was the January jobs report released than the Wall Street Journal posted a succinct headline: "Hiring, Wages Pick Up as Job Market Nears Full Health". Whether the job market is actually as red hot as the BLS' headline numbers...
TLH: 136.86 (-0.66), TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), DLBL: 78.14 (+0.78), SINF: 47.80 (unch), MBG: 27.29 (+0.01), TLO: 73.76 (-0.77), UBT: 83.49 (-1.42), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), DLBS: 20.57 (+0.51), ZROZ: 123.35 (-1.57), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), HOLD: 99.38 (+0.07), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), TTT: 38.96 (+1.14), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), MBB: 109.88 (+0.03), GMTB: 52.35 (-0.02), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), TYBS: 22.40 (+0.20), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), EDV: 126.88 (-1.85), GNMA: 50.34 (-0.26), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), TFLO: 50.07 (-0.06), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SBND: 4.44 (+0.08), TBF: 24.63 (+0.25), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VGLT: 78.92 (-0.70), RAVI: 75.36 (+0.03), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01), ULST: 40.01 (unch), NEAR: 50.09 (-0.01), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), FTSM: 60.00 (unch), USFR: 24.89 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), AGZ: 114.28 (+0.08), ICSH: 50.02 (+0.09), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), TENZ: 86.50 (-0.21), LBND: 56.35 (-2.05), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), VMBS: 53.15 (-0.09), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), FTSD: 99.21 (unch), MINT: 101.06 (-0.01), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
'Good Deflation'
Bill Kort - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 12:38AM CST
My guess is by the time this missile wings its way through cyberspace to your computer, phone, etc., the investment world (media in particular) will have shifted its attention to ' bad inflation ' and the prospects for higher interest rate increases...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Inflation Targeting Or Deflation Avoidance?
Bob McTeer - Seeking Alpha - Sun Feb 08, 11:56PM CST
Back in the day when I served on the FOMC (February 1991-November 2004) under Alan Greenspan, the subject of inflation targeting came up from time to time. I never liked the idea, but a few of my colleagues expressed an interest. Fortunately, from my...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Zero Lower Bounds
The Angry Bear - Seeking Alpha - Sun Feb 08, 6:54AM CST
By Robert Waldmann These are the usual confused thoughts mostly stimulated by this excellent post by Simon Wren-Lewis You really should click the link and read that post. I will try to summarise it. First professor Wren-Lewis argues that...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Estimated Potential GDP - What Would Milton Friedman Say?
Econbrowser - at Seeking Alpha - Sun Feb 08, 5:48AM CST
The CBO has revised downward the estimate of potential GDP, implying a relatively small output gap. I wonder about the downward revision (although I have the highest regard for the estimates CBO has generated.) Figure 1: Log GDP (blue),...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
The One Number To Watch In Friday's NFP Report
Cam Hui, CFA - Seeking Alpha - Thu Feb 05, 2:10AM CST
The consensus headline figure for Friday's NFP release is 234K, but I will be paying far less attention to that number than the Average Hourly Earnings figure, which will be released at the same time. That's because the Fed has been watching wage...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Where Would An Aggregate Nominal Labor Comp Target Fail?
Scott Sumner - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 3:58AM CST
In the US, labor compensation is about 52% of nominal gross domestic income (or NGDP). Another 26% is capital income, 15% is depreciation and 7% is indirect business taxes such as sales and excise taxes. (Income taxes are of course a part of labor...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Doubting Economics
Joseph Calhoun - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 2:36AM CST
By Jeffrey P. Snider The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Janet Yellen's old institution, has made a habit of breaking with orthodox trends and actually citing and disclosing deficiencies in economic study. In its latest effort, the bank...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Money Supply And Recession Indicators
Steven Saville - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 12:42AM CST
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on February 4, 2015. The following chart of euro-zone True Money Supply (TMS) was part of a discussion on monetary inflation in a TSI commentary published last Sunday. The ECB...
ULE: 17.62 (-0.02), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), URR: 19.48 (+0.08), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), FXE: 112.16 (-0.15), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), EUO: 24.16 (+0.03), EUFX: 42.41 (+0.07), ERO: 43.16 (unch), DRR: 55.92 (-0.18), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Brief Comment
Tim Duy - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 12:32AM CST
It is always interesting to see how others perceive you. For instance, I wasn't sure what to make of this from Paul Krugman : The monetary-policy gap between insiders and outsiders - between economists at the Fed and other policy institutions,...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Whack A Mole - The Saga Of The Dollar And Commodity Prices
Andrew Hecht - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Feb 03, 6:30AM CST
DBC: 18.30 (+0.20), USCI: 47.48 (+0.44), DEE: 58.48 (unch), CMDT: 42.09 (+0.57), SINF: 47.80 (unch), RGRC: 18.39 (+0.01), DYY: 3.95 (+0.15), UUPT: 29.68 (-0.04), COMT: 41.61 (+0.43), UUP: 24.91 (-0.01), USDU: 27.70 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), FTGC: 25.57 (+0.26), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), DDP: 41.94 (-2.87), SBV: 27.97 (+0.56), PDBC: 20.92 (+0.30), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), UDN: 22.76 (+0.03), FORX: 44.02 (+0.09), DPU: 11.22 (unch), UDNT: 10.42 (-0.02), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), BCM: 32.35 (+0.42)
ETF Deathwatch For February 2015: Closures Reduce The List
Ron Rowland - Seeking Alpha - Fri Feb 13, 3:00AM CST
The ETF Deathwatch membership roll contains 15 fewer names this month. There were 11 additions, but 26 managed to escape. Unfortunately, 22 of the escapees exited due to product death and delisting. Just four products left because of improved health....
SINF: 47.80 (unch), SJH: 49.87 (-2.39), SKK: 33.55 (-1.31), SFK: 20.51 (-1.28), UVT: 58.90 (+1.67), CVOL: 0.95 (-0.04), SJL: 61.99 (unch), UKW: 116.13 (+4.04), SDK: 60.50 (-0.50), GYEN: 13.48 (+0.12), UVU: 95.57 (+3.57), FWDI: 27.01 (+0.25), UKF: 136.86 (+4.96), ONEF: 35.99 (-0.22), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), TWQ: 18.11 (-0.70), SJF: 30.36 (-1.04), RDVY: 22.49 (+0.17), UKK: 104.31 (+4.41), UWC: 100.96 (+3.20), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), BARL: 19.19 (unch), UVG: 75.26 (+1.93)
The Federal Reserve And Borg Assimilation
Brad DeLong - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 3:12AM CST
Larry Summers : Only raise US rates when whites of inflation’s eyes are visible : “Aborting recovery and risking a further slowing of price rises is potentially catastrophic…” Larry Summers would have been a very...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
The Time For Lift-Off Of Fed Tightening Is Nigh
Learn Bonds - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 2:57AM CST
These are interesting times in the bond market. For the first time in approximately eight years, it appears that the time for lift-off of Fed tightening is nigh. This has resulted some "interesting" theories of how the bond market and fixed...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Lots Of Reasons To Be Optimistic
Calafia Beach Pundit - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 2:47AM CST
Beginning a little over one year ago, there have been quite a few developments that have positively impacted the economy. Many signs now point to a noticeable improvement in the economy's underlying growth fundamentals that bode well for the future. ...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Winter Is Coming
The Inflation Trader - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 2:24AM CST
Sometimes being a value investor, amid overvalued (and ever more so) markets, feels a bit like being a Stark in Westeros. The analogy will be lost on you if you do not follow Game of Thrones , but the Starks hold the largest of the sub-kingdoms in...
VGK: 54.96 (+0.18), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SPY: 209.78 (+0.86), SINF: 47.80 (unch), GREK: 13.65 (+0.66), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), EU: 20.54 (-0.08), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Fedspeak Points To June
Tim Duy - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 1:43AM CST
Federal Reserve speakers were out and about Tuesday. First off, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker set a fairly high bar for NOT hiking in June. Via the Wall Street Journal : "At this point, raising rates in June looks like the...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Wholesale Problems
Joseph Calhoun - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 11, 1:34AM CST
By Jeffrey P. Snider One of the primary criticisms I have leveled against economic interpretations based solely on statistics like GDP is that they are relative in the narrowest sense. GDP especially compares one quarter to the prior, meaning that...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
On The Fed Credibility Gap
Tim Duy - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 11:52PM CST
Financial market participants do not believe the Fed will pursue their expected policy path: David Wessel opines on the reasons from his post at Brookings: First, financial markets are not interested in the median Fed official; they're...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Will Faster Wage Growth Raise Inflation?
James Picerno - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 5:43PM CST
Maybe, but the current pace of wage increases for workers in the US-even after the pop reported in January's payrolls data-still implies inflation at a rate that's well below the Fed's 2% target. Nonetheless, analysts are becoming more confident...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
A Very Pernicious Partnership: Keynesian Money Printers And Wall Street Gamblers
David Stockman - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 1:53PM CST
No sooner was the January jobs report released than the Wall Street Journal posted a succinct headline: "Hiring, Wages Pick Up as Job Market Nears Full Health". Whether the job market is actually as red hot as the BLS' headline numbers...
TLH: 136.86 (-0.66), TBX: 30.03 (+0.07), DFVS: 33.70 (+0.16), TBZ: 29.08 (unch), DFVL: 65.54 (+1.42), DLBL: 78.14 (+0.78), SINF: 47.80 (unch), MBG: 27.29 (+0.01), TLO: 73.76 (-0.77), UBT: 83.49 (-1.42), TLT: 128.19 (-1.33), STIP: 99.28 (-0.02), TBT: 44.22 (+0.88), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), DLBS: 20.57 (+0.51), ZROZ: 123.35 (-1.57), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), HOLD: 99.38 (+0.07), ITE: 60.17 (-0.06), TYO: 17.93 (+0.14), TTT: 38.96 (+1.14), SCHO: 50.62 (-0.01), SCHP: 54.49 (-0.11), MBB: 109.88 (+0.03), GMTB: 52.35 (-0.02), GSY: 49.94 (+0.01), SCHR: 53.88 (-0.11), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), SYTL: 88.67 (-3.56), TPS: 26.90 (-0.02), TYBS: 22.40 (+0.20), TIP: 112.66 (-0.23), IEI: 123.09 (-0.14), DTYL: 76.39 (-1.24), TYD: 46.21 (-0.08), IEF: 107.18 (-0.36), PST: 24.08 (+0.14), DTUS: 34.68 (-0.16), EDV: 126.88 (-1.85), GNMA: 50.34 (-0.26), DTYS: 20.97 (+0.37), TYNS: 30.29 (+0.49), TFLO: 50.07 (-0.06), TMV: 29.17 (+0.87), DTUL: 62.62 (-0.15), LTPZ: 66.86 (-0.42), VTIP: 48.41 (-0.03), SBND: 4.44 (+0.08), TBF: 24.63 (+0.25), TUZ: 50.92 (-0.01), SHY: 84.64 (unch), VGLT: 78.92 (-0.70), RAVI: 75.36 (+0.03), TMF: 90.04 (-2.88), SHV: 110.27 (+0.01), ULST: 40.01 (unch), NEAR: 50.09 (-0.01), SIPE: 19.42 (unch), FLAT: 61.92 (-0.15), FTSM: 60.00 (unch), USFR: 24.89 (unch), TIPX: 19.30 (unch), AGZ: 114.28 (+0.08), ICSH: 50.02 (+0.09), TDTF: 24.73 (-0.03), TIPZ: 57.25 (-0.09), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), TDTT: 24.39 (unch), FIVZ: 80.60 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), VGIT: 64.86 (-0.12), IPE: 56.23 (-0.11), UST: 56.86 (-0.32), TENZ: 86.50 (-0.21), LBND: 56.35 (-2.05), STPP: 33.20 (+0.19), TAPR: 31.63 (+0.44), VMBS: 53.15 (-0.09), STPZ: 51.87 (-0.03), BIL: 45.73 (+0.01), SST: 30.16 (-0.01), VGSH: 60.96 (-0.02), FTSD: 99.21 (unch), MINT: 101.06 (-0.01), PLW: 33.20 (-0.21), GOVT: 25.33 (-0.06)
'Good Deflation'
Bill Kort - Seeking Alpha - Mon Feb 09, 12:38AM CST
My guess is by the time this missile wings its way through cyberspace to your computer, phone, etc., the investment world (media in particular) will have shifted its attention to ' bad inflation ' and the prospects for higher interest rate increases...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Inflation Targeting Or Deflation Avoidance?
Bob McTeer - Seeking Alpha - Sun Feb 08, 11:56PM CST
Back in the day when I served on the FOMC (February 1991-November 2004) under Alan Greenspan, the subject of inflation targeting came up from time to time. I never liked the idea, but a few of my colleagues expressed an interest. Fortunately, from my...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Zero Lower Bounds
The Angry Bear - Seeking Alpha - Sun Feb 08, 6:54AM CST
By Robert Waldmann These are the usual confused thoughts mostly stimulated by this excellent post by Simon Wren-Lewis You really should click the link and read that post. I will try to summarise it. First professor Wren-Lewis argues that...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Estimated Potential GDP - What Would Milton Friedman Say?
Econbrowser - at Seeking Alpha - Sun Feb 08, 5:48AM CST
The CBO has revised downward the estimate of potential GDP, implying a relatively small output gap. I wonder about the downward revision (although I have the highest regard for the estimates CBO has generated.) Figure 1: Log GDP (blue),...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
The One Number To Watch In Friday's NFP Report
Cam Hui, CFA - Seeking Alpha - Thu Feb 05, 2:10AM CST
The consensus headline figure for Friday's NFP release is 234K, but I will be paying far less attention to that number than the Average Hourly Earnings figure, which will be released at the same time. That's because the Fed has been watching wage...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Where Would An Aggregate Nominal Labor Comp Target Fail?
Scott Sumner - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 3:58AM CST
In the US, labor compensation is about 52% of nominal gross domestic income (or NGDP). Another 26% is capital income, 15% is depreciation and 7% is indirect business taxes such as sales and excise taxes. (Income taxes are of course a part of labor...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Doubting Economics
Joseph Calhoun - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 2:36AM CST
By Jeffrey P. Snider The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Janet Yellen's old institution, has made a habit of breaking with orthodox trends and actually citing and disclosing deficiencies in economic study. In its latest effort, the bank...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Money Supply And Recession Indicators
Steven Saville - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 12:42AM CST
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on February 4, 2015. The following chart of euro-zone True Money Supply (TMS) was part of a discussion on monetary inflation in a TSI commentary published last Sunday. The ECB...
ULE: 17.62 (-0.02), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), URR: 19.48 (+0.08), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), FXE: 112.16 (-0.15), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), EUO: 24.16 (+0.03), EUFX: 42.41 (+0.07), ERO: 43.16 (unch), DRR: 55.92 (-0.18), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Brief Comment
Tim Duy - Seeking Alpha - Wed Feb 04, 12:32AM CST
It is always interesting to see how others perceive you. For instance, I wasn't sure what to make of this from Paul Krugman : The monetary-policy gap between insiders and outsiders - between economists at the Fed and other policy institutions,...
FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), SINF: 47.80 (unch), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05)
Whack A Mole - The Saga Of The Dollar And Commodity Prices
Andrew Hecht - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Feb 03, 6:30AM CST
DBC: 18.30 (+0.20), USCI: 47.48 (+0.44), DEE: 58.48 (unch), CMDT: 42.09 (+0.57), SINF: 47.80 (unch), RGRC: 18.39 (+0.01), DYY: 3.95 (+0.15), UUPT: 29.68 (-0.04), COMT: 41.61 (+0.43), UUP: 24.91 (-0.01), USDU: 27.70 (unch), RINF: 30.25 (+0.05), FTGC: 25.57 (+0.26), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), DDP: 41.94 (-2.87), SBV: 27.97 (+0.56), PDBC: 20.92 (+0.30), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), UDN: 22.76 (+0.03), FORX: 44.02 (+0.09), DPU: 11.22 (unch), UDNT: 10.42 (-0.02), DEFL: 58.00 (unch), BCM: 32.35 (+0.42)
