beyondtheverge post at Yahoo--He is talking about
Post# of 640
Posted On: 02/01/2015 9:12:23 PM
beyondtheverge post at Yahoo--He is talking about the rice milling in California, especially Farmers where RIBT gets most of it's bran---dynamite post, but one man's opinion and he is a knowledged poster.
Ok, spent couple of hours trying to read on the subject.
Found very interesting tiblid:
"In the last several years, Japan has become the most important customer of California rice and Japan takes all of its requirements in the first 6 months of the crop year. With about a third of the rice going to Japan, this means that over two thirds of all the paddy rice in California must be milled and shipped in the first 6 months of the year.... For the first six months of the year, the milling industry will be running at about three quarters capacity, and then for the rest of the year at one third capacity or less."
And went thru the last year rice shipment numbers and they confirm the above. The shipments of milled short/mid grain rice went to almost non-existant starting in August. It started to recover a little last week of August. It is not an exact science, but considering they lost maybe $1 mln worth of US revenues in q3 (which is some 15%) - my quess is only August was bad and September they were getting enough bran.
Q4 numbers look much much better especially Nov-Dec and with the US capacity being 2x - they most likely cought up with the demand. Which means the q4 US numbers will be good.
And as the tiblid above says , the q1 export numbers are huge - they now have all the bran they need.
So the Q1 should be really good and with the Irgovel now running at projected rate - they are cash flow positive right now and actually can show small profit in q1. When the market is going to price this into the stock valuation is anyone's guess. It can happen when they announce q1 numbers in May, or in March when they say they get enough bran and running on full cylinders and making progress with the 3rd source bran and expect it to be in place by August. Or they can announce the progress earlier and up the estimate.
Of course they might screw something up again or if not they might let their friends in at these discount prices. Take your bets
Ok, spent couple of hours trying to read on the subject.
Found very interesting tiblid:
"In the last several years, Japan has become the most important customer of California rice and Japan takes all of its requirements in the first 6 months of the crop year. With about a third of the rice going to Japan, this means that over two thirds of all the paddy rice in California must be milled and shipped in the first 6 months of the year.... For the first six months of the year, the milling industry will be running at about three quarters capacity, and then for the rest of the year at one third capacity or less."
And went thru the last year rice shipment numbers and they confirm the above. The shipments of milled short/mid grain rice went to almost non-existant starting in August. It started to recover a little last week of August. It is not an exact science, but considering they lost maybe $1 mln worth of US revenues in q3 (which is some 15%) - my quess is only August was bad and September they were getting enough bran.
Q4 numbers look much much better especially Nov-Dec and with the US capacity being 2x - they most likely cought up with the demand. Which means the q4 US numbers will be good.
And as the tiblid above says , the q1 export numbers are huge - they now have all the bran they need.
So the Q1 should be really good and with the Irgovel now running at projected rate - they are cash flow positive right now and actually can show small profit in q1. When the market is going to price this into the stock valuation is anyone's guess. It can happen when they announce q1 numbers in May, or in March when they say they get enough bran and running on full cylinders and making progress with the 3rd source bran and expect it to be in place by August. Or they can announce the progress earlier and up the estimate.
Of course they might screw something up again or if not they might let their friends in at these discount prices. Take your bets
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