Measuring The Term Premium In The U.S. Treasury Curve
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - 1 hr 42 mins ago
IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), SHY: 84.73 (+0.05), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75), TBT: 42.26 (-0.52)
Fed To Treasury Market: You're Wrong (And Vice-Versa)
Brian Romanchuk - Seeking Alpha - Mon Jan 12, 7:24AM CST
Last week ushered in a bit of excitement into Fed watching, with cross currents from the Fed minutes and the employment situation report. Unless the swoon in Average Hourly Earnings - pictured above - causes a re-think at the Fed, we have bond market...
IEI: 123.83 (+0.27), TBX: 29.81 (-0.16), DTYL: 73.60 (+0.67), DFVS: 33.00 (-0.13), TYD: 47.12 (+0.57), TBZ: 29.10 (-0.37), DFVL: 64.12 (+3.60), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), PST: 23.74 (-0.16), UST: 57.93 (+0.39), DTYS: 19.88 (-0.49), TYNS: 30.21 (-0.17), ITE: 60.35 (+0.12), TYO: 17.64 (-0.16), GSY: 49.93 (+0.01), SCHR: 54.26 (+0.15), SYTL: 88.37 (+0.18), FIVZ: 80.25 (unch), VGIT: 65.30 (+0.16)
U.S. Stocks Living On Borrowed Time As 2015 Begins
Daniel R Moore - at Seeking Alpha - Sat Jan 10, 2:22AM CST
USO: 17.41 (-0.87), HYG: 89.99 (-0.11), UCO: 7.56 (-0.80), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), DTUS: 34.59 (-0.38), SJNK: 29.05 (+0.02), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75), JNK: 38.87 (-0.04), SGOL: 120.84 (+1.30), SPY: 202.65 (-1.60), TAPR: 30.87 (-1.24), QQQ: 101.55 (-1.07), DBO: 13.27 (-0.73), GLD: 118.56 (+1.30), DIA: 176.24 (-0.98), OIL: 10.47 (-0.65), SHY: 84.73 (+0.05), IAU: 11.94 (+0.12), BKLN: 23.91 (-0.01)
A Sweet Spot For The U.S. Economy... Maybe
James Picerno - Seeking Alpha - Fri Jan 09, 9:31AM CST
It may be a trap, but the recent slide in US Treasury yields and the market's implied inflation forecast could be a blessing that helps unleash a stronger cycle of growth. The critical factor, of course, is the strength of the US economy. So far, so...
SPY: 202.65 (-1.60), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), SHY: 84.73 (+0.05)
Implied Forward T-Bill Rates Plunge 0.36% In 2019, Forward 10-Year Treasury Yields Drop 0.25%
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Jan 08, 4:38PM CST
BOND: 108.79 (+0.24), NUV: 9.91 (+0.04), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), REM: 11.77 (-0.01), SHY: 84.73 (+0.05), BND: 83.30 (+0.11), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75), TBT: 42.26 (-0.52), TMV: 27.47 (-0.50), TMF: 98.30 (+1.61)
There's No Bubble In Bonds, But They Look Frothy
Cullen Roche - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Jan 08, 3:23AM CST
I've been a bond bull for as long as I've written this blog. Over the course of the last 6 years I've repeatedly defended bonds in a portfolio, explained why US government bonds were not at risk of default or high inflation and I've spilled a huge...
IEI: 123.83 (+0.27), TBX: 29.81 (-0.16), DTYL: 73.60 (+0.67), DFVS: 33.00 (-0.13), TYD: 47.12 (+0.57), TBZ: 29.10 (-0.37), DFVL: 64.12 (+3.60), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), PST: 23.74 (-0.16), UST: 57.93 (+0.39), DTYS: 19.88 (-0.49), TYNS: 30.21 (-0.17), ITE: 60.35 (+0.12), TYO: 17.64 (-0.16), GSY: 49.93 (+0.01), SCHR: 54.26 (+0.15), SYTL: 88.37 (+0.18), FIVZ: 80.25 (unch), VGIT: 65.30 (+0.16)
Why Gold May Finally Be Turning Higher
Market Anthropology - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Jan 07, 7:43AM CST
We came into last year with the idea that despite a historically low disposition at 3 percent, the 10-year yield had become stretched at a relative performance extreme . In less than two years, yields had run up over 100% above the July 2012 cycle...
DTYL: 73.60 (+0.67), TBX: 29.81 (-0.16), IEI: 123.83 (+0.27), DFVS: 33.00 (-0.13), TYD: 47.12 (+0.57), TBZ: 29.10 (-0.37), DFVL: 64.12 (+3.60), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), PST: 23.74 (-0.16), OUNZ: 12.30 (+0.13), UST: 57.93 (+0.39), DTYS: 19.88 (-0.49), TYNS: 30.21 (-0.17), SGOL: 120.84 (+1.30), ITE: 60.35 (+0.12), TYO: 17.64 (-0.16), GLD: 118.56 (+1.30), SCHR: 54.26 (+0.15), GSY: 49.93 (+0.01), IAU: 11.94 (+0.12), AGOL: 119.66 (+1.57), SYTL: 88.37 (+0.18), FIVZ: 80.25 (unch), VGIT: 65.30 (+0.16)
My 2 Cents: 3 Month Outlook On The S&P 500 And The U.S. 10-Year Yield
Cerebro1 - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Jan 07, 6:43AM CST
SPY: 202.65 (-1.60), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38)
Is It Time To Panic?
Bill Gunderson - Seeking Alpha - Tue Jan 06, 1:27PM CST
This week Wall Street Traders are all back from their holiday vacations and setting the tone for the market. In the first few days of trading it has been a confusing tone, with the market selling off significantly in the new year, seeing a huge 3-day...
SPY: 202.65 (-1.60), QQQ: 101.55 (-1.07), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), XLF: 23.92 (-0.20)
Yield Curve Bleg
Scott Sumner - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Jan 06, 4:51AM CST
I notice that 5-year Treasuries are currently yielding 1.56% and 10-year yields are 2.04%. I was taught two theories of the yield curve: Expectations hypothesis-> Long term yields are an average of expected future short term yields. Term...
TBX: 29.81 (-0.16), DFVS: 33.00 (-0.13), TBZ: 29.10 (-0.37), DFVL: 64.12 (+3.60), SINF: 47.80 (unch), SIPE: 19.31 (unch), TIPX: 19.27 (unch), STIP: 99.11 (-0.01), TDTF: 24.65 (unch), TIPZ: 57.43 (+0.03), RINF: 31.54 (unch), FINF: 42.47 (-0.64), TYO: 17.64 (-0.16), ITE: 60.35 (+0.12), SCHP: 54.66 (-0.02), INFL: 39.28 (+0.47), GSY: 49.93 (+0.01), SCHR: 54.26 (+0.15), UINF: 27.79 (+0.01), TDTT: 24.34 (-0.01), SYTL: 88.37 (+0.18), TPS: 27.22 (+0.12), FIVZ: 80.25 (unch), DEFL: 58.00 (+2.23), VGIT: 65.30 (+0.16), TIP: 113.05 (-0.03), IEI: 123.83 (+0.27), DTYL: 73.60 (+0.67), TYD: 47.12 (+0.57), PST: 23.74 (-0.16), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), UST: 57.93 (+0.39), IPE: 56.49 (+0.04), DTYS: 19.88 (-0.49), TYNS: 30.21 (-0.17), LTPZ: 69.05 (+0.14), VTIP: 48.32 (-0.03), STPZ: 51.79 (-0.03)
Peak What? Christmastime In Hell? Part 5
The Nattering Naybob - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Jan 06, 3:06AM CST
HK: 1.52 (-0.07), EXXI: 2.77 (-0.08), SLB: 78.05 (-3.17), SPY: 202.65 (-1.60), LNCO: 10.43 (-0.71), SCTY: 49.32 (-0.30), FXE: 116.53 (-0.08), BKLN: 23.91 (-0.01), BKF: 35.31 (-0.36), PSX: 64.24 (-3.07), EXC: 36.63 (+0.14), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), EOX: 0.88 (-0.07), TPLM: 4.53 (-0.02), HNR: 1.09 (+0.05), CLB: 103.91 (-8.20), CPE: 4.78 (-0.43), IWM: 117.18 (-0.39), PDCE: 38.34 (-2.26), OAS: 13.36 (-1.97),
Is A Bullish 'Perfect Storm' Brewing In Treasury Bonds?
DoctoRx - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Jan 06, 12:36AM CST
ZROZ: 128.61 (+1.61), TLH: 138.83 (+0.52), IEI: 123.83 (+0.27), SPY: 202.65 (-1.60), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), MUB: 111.16 (+0.13), EDV: 132.38 (+1.38), TFI: 24.40 (+0.06), IWM: 117.18 (-0.39), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75)
S&P 500 Ends 2014 In Fair Value Range With Growth Likely In 2015
Steve Hassett - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Jan 05, 4:56PM CST
TLH: 138.83 (+0.52), TBF: 24.06 (-0.12), SPY: 202.65 (-1.60), PST: 23.74 (-0.16), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75), TBT: 42.26 (-0.52)
10-year yield eyes sub-2% handle
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Jan 05, 9:13AM CST
EWI: 12.87 (+0.01), TLH: 138.83 (+0.52), TBX: 29.81 (-0.16), DFVS: 33.00 (-0.13), TBZ: 29.10 (-0.37), DFVL: 64.12 (+3.60), DLBL: 76.60 (-0.56), TLO: 75.82 (+0.38), UBT: 88.28 (+1.38), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75), TBT: 42.26 (-0.52), DLBS: 19.13 (-0.40), ZROZ: 128.61 (+1.61), ITE: 60.35 (+0.12), TYO: 17.64 (-0.16), TTT: 36.51 (-0.63), SCHR: 54.26 (+0.15), GSY: 49.93 (+0.01), SYTL: 88.37 (+0.18), TYBS: 21.98 (-0.35), FIVZ: 80.25 (unch), VGIT: 65.30 (+0.16), DTYL: 73.60 (+0.67), IEI: 123.83 (+0.27), TYD: 47.12 (+0.57), PST: 23.74 (-0.16), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), UST: 57.93 (+0.39), TENZ: 87.44 (+0.33), EDV: 132.38 (+1.38), DTYS: 19.88 (-0.49), TYNS: 30.21 (-0.17), TMV: 27.47 (-0.50), LBND: 63.16 (+2.15), SBND: 4.38 (-0.14), TBF: 24.06 (-0.12), VGLT: 80.96 (+0.43), TMF: 98.30 (+1.61)
The Hated. The Feared. The Amazing. The U.S. Treasury Bond.
Alpha Architect - at Seeking Alpha - Sun Jan 04, 11:43PM CST
By Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D. As "everyone" seems to know , the US 10-year Treasury bond has a low relative yield and is "inevitably going to rise at some point in the future." We have no strong feelings one way or the other on the...
IEI: 123.83 (+0.27), TBX: 29.81 (-0.16), DTYL: 73.60 (+0.67), DFVS: 33.00 (-0.13), TYD: 47.12 (+0.57), TBZ: 29.10 (-0.37), DFVL: 64.12 (+3.60), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), PST: 23.74 (-0.16), UST: 57.93 (+0.39), DTYS: 19.88 (-0.49), TYNS: 30.21 (-0.17), ITE: 60.35 (+0.12), TYO: 17.64 (-0.16), GSY: 49.93 (+0.01), SCHR: 54.26 (+0.15), SYTL: 88.37 (+0.18), FIVZ: 80.25 (unch), VGIT: 65.30 (+0.16)
2015 Outlook: Pain
Eric Parnell, CFA - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Dec 31, 3:09AM CST
XLB: 48.29 (-0.11), VXX: 33.49 (+1.51), EWN: 23.20 (+0.15), EWL: 31.50 (-0.09), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75), EWK: 16.00 (+0.02), EEM: 38.95 (-0.32), KRE: 37.67 (-0.40), XLP: 48.96 (-0.15), SPY: 202.65 (-1.60), FXB: 149.02 (+0.09), XLK: 40.77 (-0.48), FM: 29.93 (+0.02), XLI: 55.04 (-0.38), FXE: 116.53 (-0.08), KIE: 64.69 (-0.61), XLF: 23.92 (-0.20), VNQ: 85.78 (+0.65), XLE: 74.16 (-2.20), EIS: 46.38 (-0.07), SH: 22.07 (+0.17), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), XLY: 70.51 (-0.38), FXY: 82.22 (+0.15), UL: 40.46 (+0.61), GSK: 42.93 (+0.13), XLU: 47.27 (-0.11), IVV: 204.09 (-1.56), UUP: 24.38 (unch), XLV: 70.24 (+0.03), EWU: 17.52 (-0.07), ENZL: 40.33 (+0.07), GLD: 118.56 (+1.30), EFA: 59.50 (-0.14), EDEN: 46.83 (+0.15), ACWX: 42.08 (-0.17), IWM: 117.18 (-0.39)
Top ETF Stories Of 2014 Worth Watching In 2015
Zacks Funds - Seeking Alpha - Mon Dec 29, 4:37PM CST
The stock market across the globe has given mixed performances in 2014. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 18,000 mark for the first time in mid December and the S&P 500 is on the verge of crossing the 2,100 level on the back of...
USO: 17.41 (-0.87), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), RSXJ: 19.60 (+0.08), OIH: 32.59 (-1.29), XOP: 43.10 (-2.16), RBL: 14.53 (-0.48), FCG: 9.85 (-0.47), BNO: 18.68 (-0.98), SHY: 84.73 (+0.05), RSX: 14.77 (-0.44), ERUS: 11.40 (-0.37), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75)
Top ETF Stories of 2014 Worth Watching in 2015 - ETF News And Commentary
Sweta Killa - ZACKS - Mon Dec 29, 12:00PM CST
These ETFs could be ones to watch heading into 2015.
USO: 17.41 (-0.87), IEF: 108.35 (+0.38), RSXJ: 19.60 (+0.08), OIH: 32.59 (-1.29), XOP: 43.10 (-2.16), FCG: 9.85 (-0.47), BNO: 18.68 (-0.98), SHY: 84.73 (+0.05), RSX: 14.77 (-0.44), ERUS: 11.40 (-0.37), TLT: 131.82 (+0.75)