same situation updated note in april 2009 price
Post# of 8059
Posted On: 11/23/2014 11:59:00 AM
same situation updated
note in april 2009 price was still only 60- only $10-14 until 2002- how did iron miners profit then??
and cwrn was saying in 2009 they could make a profit at 45,which was close to their total costs in 2011,except 1st ship may have been more expensive because of libya war fuel surcharge
this year a mex ebitda royalty of 7.5% took effect, raising costs,plus brad may factor in his maybe 10 million investment-
but hes not going to walk away-too much invested and plenty of ore -just needs to use beneficiation, pellets or fert to get around low prices- but except for fert already separated by trommel, beneficiation and pellets take some time and capital to set up.
WA- western australia in the article
Australia imposed a 30% export tax may 2012,which should've hurt Australia's proximity advantage- certainly hurt Fortescue w average costs of 77- it did cause China to pull out of some Australia projects
when price fell to an 18 month low of 87.50 couple years ago cwrn waited for price to rise as it did -to 140 by end of that year
now w price near 70 we can assume cwrn has been waiting for price to rise again -thus no ships despite current inventory-was ca 110 in feb or mar when cwrn would've finished permit audits for this year- but not likely to rise much w the big three's strategy to flood the market to eliminate competitors- if china doesnt subsidize its mines- 50% or more would have to close- if the big 3 cant make up the supply difference price could rise until chinas more long term solutions
in the meantime, considering long range forecasts, long term solutions would logically be sought by cwrn, like beneficiation advertised in Apr 2012 PR, fertilizer options, including an onsite plant publicly discussed by cwrn 2011-2012,
pelletization, similar to a fertilizer plant, and trucking of aggregate to the CEMEX Ensenada plant, which cwrn did in 2011-2012
so one or more of these options is likely in the planning stages-
plus get that shiploading station! to bypass port problems and ca 70000 ton actual ore ship port limitations (due to draft) so the larger Capesize ships noted by Navials website and their lower per ton ship costs can be utilized!
note in april 2009 price was still only 60- only $10-14 until 2002- how did iron miners profit then??
and cwrn was saying in 2009 they could make a profit at 45,which was close to their total costs in 2011,except 1st ship may have been more expensive because of libya war fuel surcharge
this year a mex ebitda royalty of 7.5% took effect, raising costs,plus brad may factor in his maybe 10 million investment-
but hes not going to walk away-too much invested and plenty of ore -just needs to use beneficiation, pellets or fert to get around low prices- but except for fert already separated by trommel, beneficiation and pellets take some time and capital to set up.
WA- western australia in the article
Australia imposed a 30% export tax may 2012,which should've hurt Australia's proximity advantage- certainly hurt Fortescue w average costs of 77- it did cause China to pull out of some Australia projects
when price fell to an 18 month low of 87.50 couple years ago cwrn waited for price to rise as it did -to 140 by end of that year
now w price near 70 we can assume cwrn has been waiting for price to rise again -thus no ships despite current inventory-was ca 110 in feb or mar when cwrn would've finished permit audits for this year- but not likely to rise much w the big three's strategy to flood the market to eliminate competitors- if china doesnt subsidize its mines- 50% or more would have to close- if the big 3 cant make up the supply difference price could rise until chinas more long term solutions
in the meantime, considering long range forecasts, long term solutions would logically be sought by cwrn, like beneficiation advertised in Apr 2012 PR, fertilizer options, including an onsite plant publicly discussed by cwrn 2011-2012,
pelletization, similar to a fertilizer plant, and trucking of aggregate to the CEMEX Ensenada plant, which cwrn did in 2011-2012
so one or more of these options is likely in the planning stages-
plus get that shiploading station! to bypass port problems and ca 70000 ton actual ore ship port limitations (due to draft) so the larger Capesize ships noted by Navials website and their lower per ton ship costs can be utilized!
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