Short-Term Gyrations In The U.S. Treasury Bill Market Imply Negative 0.005% T-Bill Rates On December 31, 2014
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Sat Nov 15, 4:29AM CST
Short-term Treasury bill rates twisted up 0.01% to reach 0.05% at 1 month and down 0.01% to 0.02% at 3 months this week. The result is an implied path for T-bill rates that has the 1-month rate at MINUS 0.005% on December 31, 2014. Negative rates are...
BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), NUV: 9.52 (unch), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Treasury Curve Twists Again, With Forward T-Bill Rates Peaking At 3.28% In 2021
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Nov 06, 11:14PM CST
BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), NUV: 9.52 (unch), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
New Lessons In Bond Investing: Why Yields Are Going Lower And What Investors Should Do
Vipin Sahijwani - Seeking Alpha - Wed Nov 05, 4:43PM CST
The Fed's recent announcement of the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the stock market marking recent highs would lead one to believe that withdrawing such massive stimulus would cause bond yields to go up. So why are they going down? We...
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TAPR: 40.30 (-0.67), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), GOVT: 25.03 (+0.04), PLW: 32.00 (+0.07), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Treasury Curve Twists Sharply This Week, With Forward T-Bill Rates Peaking At 3.25% In 2021
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Oct 31, 8:30PM CDT
Forward 1-month T-bill rates twisted this week, rising 0.16% in 2016 and dropping 0.18% in 2024. The twist in implied forward 1-month Treasury bill rates stems from an increase of 0.06% to 0.08% in current U.S. Treasury yields in the 2 to 7 year...
NUV: 9.52 (unch), BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
A Weird All-Long Strategy (That Beats The S&P 500 Every Year) II
Harry Long - Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 30, 8:00AM CDT
Here is the weird strategy's rules. 1. Buy SPXL (NYSEARCA: SPXL ) with 50% of the dollar value of the portfolio. 2. Buy TMF (NYSEARCA: TMF ) with 45% of the dollar value of the portfolio. 3. Buy VXX (NYSEARCA: VXX ) with 5% of the dollar value of...
TVIX: 2.46 (-0.06), VXX: 28.10 (-0.50), SPXL: 87.13 (+1.50), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Ideas For An Ultra-Low Volatility Index Part IV
Harry Long - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 30, 3:30AM CDT
SPLV: 37.14 (+0.15), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Making Sense Of The Bond Market
Saturna Capital - Seeking Alpha - Tue Oct 28, 1:46PM CDT
[Originally published September, 2014] By Phelps Mcllvaine, Bond Portfolio Manager A persistent reduction in the US inflation rate and well-anchored inflation expectations continue to contradict the common understanding that interest rates have...
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), TBX: 30.89 (-0.09), DFVS: 35.81 (-0.19), TBZ: 30.11 (-0.02), DFVL: 61.39 (+0.42), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), ITE: 59.99 (+0.04), TYO: 19.71 (-0.08), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), SCHR: 53.47 (+0.08), GSY: 50.14 (unch), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), FIVZ: 79.97 (+0.07), VGIT: 64.30 (+0.03), DTYL: 74.80 (-1.08), IEI: 122.39 (+0.09), TYD: 42.87 (+0.74), PST: 25.46 (-0.07), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), UST: 54.88 (+0.15), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), DTYS: 23.90 (-0.14), TYNS: 31.33 (-0.06), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Liquidity squeeze in Treasurys
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Oct 27, 12:09PM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TAPR: 40.30 (-0.67), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), GOVT: 25.03 (+0.04), PLW: 32.00 (+0.07), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
A Decade Of Rising T-Bill Rates Implied By Current Treasury Yields With No Decline In Sight
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Oct 24, 12:09AM CDT
BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), NUV: 9.52 (unch), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Gundlach: Rates not going anywhere; oil headed lower
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 22, 9:30PM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), OLO: 11.45 (+0.05), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), BNO: 30.86 (-0.29), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), CRUD: 34.80 (+0.40), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), DNO: 40.75 (+0.38), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), OIL: 18.09 (-0.33), OLEM: 34.37 (unch), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), USO: 28.20 (-0.48), TWTI: 20.49 (unch), UCO: 20.38 (-0.67), DTO: 50.09 (+1.28), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UWTI: 14.52 (-0.71), SCO: 43.80 (+1.33), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), SZO: 44.95 (-0.99), TAPR: 40.30 (-0.67), DBO: 22.20 (-0.37), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), DWTI: 52.17 (+2.25), USL: 35.36 (-0.45), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47), PLW: 32.00 (+0.07), GOVT: 25.03 (+0.04)
Shares of TMF Up 12.5% Since Uptrend Call on Shares
Comtex SmarTrend(R) - Wed Oct 22, 10:04AM CDT
SmarTrend identified an Uptrend for Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3X (NYSE:TMF) on September 25th, 2014 at $65.88. In approximately 4 weeks, Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3X has returned 12.54% as of today's recent price of $74.13.
TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
What The Plunge In U.S. Treasury Yields Means For The Next 10 Years
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 16, 7:44PM CDT
Forward 1-month T-bill rates fell again this week, dropping sharply at all but the very shortest maturities. The fall in implied forward 1-month Treasury bill rates stems from a decrease of 0.11% to 0.20% in current U.S. Treasury yields in the 2- to...
NUV: 9.52 (unch), BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Mantra: Interest Rates Have To Rise
David Merkel, CFA - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 16, 2:34PM CDT
I thought of structuring this post like a fictional story, but I couldn't figure out how to make it good enough for publication. Well, truth is often stranger than fiction, so have a look at this Bloomberg article pointing at a 37% loss in the...
ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Treasurys little-changed in volatile session
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 16, 10:48AM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
10-year Treasury yield bounces all the way back to 2.15%
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 15, 2:46PM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares Up 32.4% Since SmarTrend's Buy Recommendation (TMF)
Comtex SmarTrend(R) - Wed Oct 15, 9:25AM CDT
SmarTrend identified an Uptrend for Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3X (NYSE:TMF) on September 25th, 2014 at $65.88. In approximately 3 weeks, Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3X has returned 32.42% as of today's recent price of $87.23.
TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Panic buying in Treasurys - 10-year yield plunges to 2%
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 15, 8:35AM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), TBX: 30.89 (-0.09), DFVS: 35.81 (-0.19), DFVL: 61.39 (+0.42), TBZ: 30.11 (-0.02), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), ITE: 59.99 (+0.04), TYO: 19.71 (-0.08), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), SCHR: 53.47 (+0.08), GSY: 50.14 (unch), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), FIVZ: 79.97 (+0.07), VGIT: 64.30 (+0.03), DTYL: 74.80 (-1.08), IEI: 122.39 (+0.09), TYD: 42.87 (+0.74), PST: 25.46 (-0.07), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), UST: 54.88 (+0.15), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), DTYS: 23.90 (-0.14), TYNS: 31.33 (-0.06), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TAPR: 40.30 (-0.67), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47), PLW: 32.00 (+0.07), GOVT: 25.03 (+0.04)
Treasury yields tumble after weak data; S&P futures down 1%
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 15, 7:41AM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), TBX: 30.89 (-0.09), DFVS: 35.81 (-0.19), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TBZ: 30.11 (-0.02), DFVL: 61.39 (+0.42), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), SPLX: 30.67 (+0.29), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SPXU: 39.17 (-0.67), SPY: 205.55 (+1.18), TYO: 19.71 (-0.08), ITE: 59.99 (+0.04), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), GSY: 50.14 (unch), SCHR: 53.47 (+0.08), SPXL: 87.13 (+1.50), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), SPYG: 96.77 (+0.72), IEI: 122.39 (+0.09), DTYL: 74.80 (-1.08), RWL: 40.36 (+0.20), TYD: 42.87 (+0.74), RSP: 79.49 (+0.50), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), PST: 25.46 (-0.07), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), DTYS: 23.90 (-0.14), IVV: 206.91 (+1.25), TYNS: 31.33 (-0.06), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), IVW: 111.84 (+0.80), SPYV: 101.45 (+0.33), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), SDS: 22.43 (-0.26), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47), VOOG: 100.15 (+0.73), UPRO: 131.66 (+2.21), EPS: 71.81 (+0.33), IVE: 93.53 (+0.41), FIVZ: 79.97 (+0.07), VGIT: 64.30 (+0.03), SH: 21.96 (-0.14), UST: 54.88 (+0.15), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), SSO: 127.58 (+1.44), RPV: 54.77 (+0.24), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), VOO: 188.51 (+1.08), BXUB: 201.74 (unch), VOOV: 89.98 (+0.44), RPG: 79.82 (+0.89)
One Rally That Has Blindsided Wall Street's Throngs
ETFguide - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 15, 3:48AM CDT
By Ronald Delegge It seems nobody on Wall Street can stop talking about how the S&P 500 just breached its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2012. From bedazzled TV anchors to nouveau bears, it's suddenly everybody's...
SPY: 205.55 (+1.18), DIA: 176.96 (+0.47), AGG: 109.83 (+0.10), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), IVV: 206.91 (+1.25), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
TMF, CROX, TLH, CENTA, TFSL, BNCL Are Seasonally Ripe To Go Down In the Next Five Weeks
M2 - Fri Oct 10, 4:20AM CDT
BUYINS.NET / www.squeezetrigger.com is monitoring the Seasonality of Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:TMF), Crocs Inc (NASDAQ:CROX), Ishares Barclays 10 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSE:TLH), Central Garden & Pet Co (NASDAQ:CENTA), TFS Financial Corp (NASDAQ:TFSL), Beneficial Mutual Bancorp Inc (NASDAQ:BNCL) and each have a high seasonal probability to go Down in the next weeks. By identifying stocks that are poised to go up or down based on seasonal tendencies, traders can increase their odds of making money. SqueezeTrigger.com is able to analyze over 20 years of data in less than 1 second for any stock in the market and determine if the stock has a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias. The technology used to generate these predictions is available for a low monthly fee at:
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), CROX: 12.42 (+0.03), CENTA: 8.19 (+0.02), BNCL: 13.49 (-0.16), TFSL: 15.17 (+0.05), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)